2. About the Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is a key demographic indicator that helps us understand the average number of children a woman in a specific population will have during her lifetime, assuming current birth patterns persist. It's different from the crude birth rate, which simply measures the number of births per 1,000 people in a population in a given year. 

What it measures

• The average number of children a woman will have throughout her reproductive lifespan.
• It considers age-specific fertility rates, which means it takes into account the different birth rates at different ages within the population.
• Provides a longer-term perspective on population dynamics compared to the crude birth rate.

Significance

• Helps assess population growth trends and predict future population size.
• Informs policy decisions related to education, healthcare, social security, and economic development.
• Understanding TFR is crucial for analyzing the potential demographic dividend, which refers to the economic and social benefits that can arise from a large working-age population due to declining fertility rates.

Calculation

• Summing the age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for all fertile age groups (typically 15-49 years) and multiplying by five.
• ASFRs represent the average number of births per 1,000 women in a specific age group.

Key TFR levels

• Replacement fertility rate: Around 2.1 children per woman, ensures population stability without growth or decline due to births and deaths (excluding migration).
• TFR below replacement: Indicates a declining population, with potential implications for workforce size and economic growth.
• TFR above replacement: Leads to population growth, requiring investments in infrastructure and resources to support the growing population.

3. What does the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.0 mean?

A Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.0 means that, on average, each woman in the population is expected to give birth to two children over her reproductive lifetime. This value represents the replacement level of fertility, where each generation replaces itself in the population. When the TFR is around 2.0, it indicates that the population is stable, with births balancing deaths over time.

A Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.0 indicates several key things

• Average Children per Woman: In that specific population, on average, a woman will have two children during her lifetime, assuming current birth patterns remain unchanged. This means that each generation of women is replacing itself, without population growth or decline due solely to births and deaths (excluding migration).
• Replacement Fertility Rate: A TFR of 2.0 is often referred to as the replacement fertility rate. This is because it signifies the level of fertility needed to maintain a stable population size over time, considering only births and deaths. However, it's important to note that the exact replacement level can vary slightly depending on mortality rates, particularly child mortality.
• Demographic Transition: A TFR of 2.0 suggests that the population is likely in the later stages of the demographic transition. This transition involves a shift from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates. In this stage, populations typically experience a decline in fertility, followed by a decline in mortality, leading to a stabilization of population size.
• Global Context: While 2.0 is the replacement fertility rate, the global average TFR is currently around 2.3, indicating slight population growth. However, many developed countries have TFRs below replacement level, which can lead to an ageing population and potential challenges for social security systems and workforce size.
• Policy Implications: Understanding the TFR is crucial for policymakers in various areas like education, healthcare, social security, and economic development. A TFR below replacement may necessitate policies encouraging childbirth or attracting immigration to address potential workforce shortages. Conversely, a high TFR might require investments in infrastructure and resources to support a growing population.

4. What is the Replacement Fertility Rate?

The Replacement Fertility Rate (RFR) is the level of fertility required to maintain a stable population size in a given area, considering only births and deaths (excluding migration). This means that each generation of women has just enough daughters to replace themselves and their mothers in the population.

Key Points about RFR

• Typically around 2.1 children per woman This number varies slightly depending on a country's mortality rates, especially child mortality rates. Higher child mortality necessitates slightly higher fertility to ensure replacement.
• When the TFR matches the RFR, the population neither grows nor declines due to births and deaths.
• Reaching RFR suggests a population in the later stages of the demographic transition, characterized by declining birth and death rates.
• Though the global average TFR is 2.3 (slightly above RFR), many developed countries have TFRs below RFR, leading to ageing populations.

Significance of RFR

• Understanding RFR helps policymakers formulate effective policies in areas like education, healthcare, social security, and economic development.
• TFR below RFR may require policies to encourage childbirth or attract immigration to address potential workforce shortages and support ageing populations. Conversely, a high TFR might necessitate investments in infrastructure and resources to sustain a growing population.
• Analyzing TFR about RFR offers insights into potential population growth or decline, aiding in planning and resource allocation.

5. How is the Total Fertility Rate calculated?

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is calculated by considering the age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) of a population. 

1. Age-specific fertility Rates (ASFRs) represent the average number of births per 1,000 women within a specific age group. Typically, ASFRs are calculated for five-year age groups ranging from 15-49 years, covering the typical childbearing years for women. Data for calculating ASFRs usually comes from population censuses or demographic surveys.
2. Once you have the ASFRs for each age group, you need to sum them all up. This gives you the total number of births expected per 1,000 women across all fertile age groups.
3. Since age groups may have different sizes, simply summing ASFRs wouldn't be entirely accurate. To account for this, the sum is multiplied by the average number of women in each age group. This ensures the TFR reflects the fertility rates across all age groups proportionally.
4. Often, instead of using the actual number of women in each age group, a standard factor of "5" is used for convenience. This assumes that each age group has roughly the same number of women, which is a reasonable approximation for many populations.

Therefore, the TFR formula becomes: TFR = (Sum of ASFRs across all age groups) * 5

Example:

Imagine a hypothetical population with the following ASFRs:

• 15-19 years: 30 births per 1,000 women
• 20-24 years: 80 births per 1,000 women
• 25-29 years: 120 births per 1,000 women
• 30-34 years: 90 births per 1,000 women
• 35-39 years: 50 births per 1,000 women
• 40-44 years: 20 births per 1,000 women
• 45-49 years: 10 births per 1,000 women

Using the formula:

• TFR = (30 + 80 + 120 + 90 + 50 + 20 + 10) * 5
• TFR = 400 * 5
• TFR = 2000 births per 1,000 women

Therefore, in this example, the TFR is 2.0, indicating that on average, a woman in this population would have 2 children during her lifetime based on the current age-specific fertility rates.

6. The difference between birth rate and Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

While both birth rate and Total Fertility Rate (TFR) measure fertility within a population, they have key differences that offer distinct insights:

7. About demographic dividend

A demographic dividend refers to the potential economic and social benefits that can arise when a large share of the population is in the working-age (typically 15-64 years) compared to the dependent populations (children and elderly). This shift in population structure is often caused by a decline in fertility rates without a corresponding decline in mortality rates, leading to a "bulge" in the working-age population.

Key Features

• A larger working-age population translates to a larger pool of available labour, potentially boosting economic growth and productivity.
• The ratio of dependents (children and elderly) to the working-age population decreases, leading to increased savings and investment as fewer resources are needed to support dependents.
• The potential for increased investments in education and healthcare due to a smaller dependent population, leading to a more skilled and healthy workforce.

Conditions for a Dividend

• A significant and sustained decline in fertility rates is crucial for the demographic dividend to occur.
• The benefits of a demographic dividend can only be realized if the working-age population is adequately educated, skilled, and healthy.
• Expanding job opportunities is essential to absorb the growing workforce and prevent unemployment.

Challenges and Considerations

• The demographic dividend may not be evenly distributed across regions or social groups, potentially leading to inequalities.
• Governments and businesses need to adapt policies and infrastructure to accommodate the changing population structure.
• Ensuring social security and healthcare for the ageing population is crucial to sustain the benefits of the dividend.

Examples

• Several East Asian countries, like China and South Korea, experienced significant economic growth due to their demographic dividends in the latter half of the 20th century.
• India is currently experiencing a demographic transition with a declining fertility rate, creating the potential for a future dividend. However, realizing this potential requires investments in education, healthcare, and job creation.

 

 

Previous Year Questions   1. The total fertility rate is: (HPPSC GS 2018) (MPSC 2015)   A. The birth of women divided by the total female population B. The number of births divided by the total population C. The number of children a woman will likely bear in her lifetime D. The births to women of a given age divided by the total number of women at that age Answer: C   Mains   1. "Empowering women is the key to control the population growth.’’ Discuss. (UPSC 2019) 2. Critically examine the effect of globalization on the aged population in India. (UPSC 2013) 3. Discuss the main objectives of Population Education and point out the measures to achieve them in India in detail. (UPSC 2021) 4. Define potential GDP and explain its determinants. What are the factors that have been inhibiting India from realizing its potential GDP? (UPSC 2020)

 

 Source: The Indian Express

 

 

SOUTHWEST MONSOON

 

 

1. Context

 

Nearly a quarter of the rain that falls over the north Western Ghats during the southwest monsoon evaporates mid-air, says a study out of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune.

 

2. What is the southwest monsoon?

 

• The southwest monsoon is a seasonal weather pattern that brings significant rainfall to large parts of South Asia, particularly India, between June and September
• The southwest monsoon typically begins in early June and lasts until late September. It starts with the arrival of the monsoon winds in the southern part of India, usually marked by the onset over the state of Kerala

• The southwest monsoon brings about 70-90% of India’s annual rainfall. The distribution of rainfall varies, with some regions receiving heavy rains, while others may experience scanty showers.
• The Western Ghats, the northeastern states, and the Himalayan foothills typically receive very heavy rainfall.
• The monsoon is critical for the Kharif crop season in India, which includes crops like rice, maize, pulses, and cotton. Adequate and timely monsoon rains are essential for a good harvest
• The monsoon starts retreating from northwestern India in early September and completely withdraws from the Indian subcontinent by mid-October. This phase is also known as the retreating or northeast monsoon

Mechanism:

• High-Pressure Area: During the summer, intense heating of the landmass in the Indian subcontinent creates a low-pressure area over northern India and the Tibetan Plateau.
• Low-Pressure Area: The Indian Ocean remains relatively cooler, creating a high-pressure area.
• Wind Movement: Air moves from the high-pressure area over the ocean to the low-pressure area over the land, carrying moisture from the ocean and resulting in rainfall.

The monsoon trough is an elongated area of low pressure extending from the heat low over Pakistan and northwestern India to the Bay of Bengal. It influences the distribution and intensity of the monsoon rains.

 

3. What are easterly and westerly winds?

 

Easterly Winds

 

• Easterly and westerly winds refer to the direction from which the winds originate
• Easterly winds are winds that blow from the east towards the west
• Easterly winds can affect weather patterns, including the development of tropical storms and cyclones. For instance, easterly waves in the tropics can lead to the formation of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans

Characteristics:

• Trade Winds: One of the most well-known examples of easterly winds are the trade winds. These winds blow from the east towards the west in the tropics, from the subtropical high-pressure areas toward the equatorial low-pressure areas.
• Tropical Regions: In the tropical regions, particularly between 30 degrees north and south of the equator, easterly winds are prevalent. These are crucial for the weather patterns and climatic conditions in these regions.
• Monsoon Winds: During certain seasons, such as the northeast monsoon in India, easterly winds play a significant role. These winds bring dry air from the land towards the ocean during the winter months.

Westerly Winds

 

• Westerly winds are winds that blow from the west towards the east

• Westerly winds play a significant role in the weather of temperate regions, influencing the climate and the movement of storm systems.
• They are also responsible for carrying warm and moist air from the oceans inland, affecting precipitation patterns in coastal and inland regions.
• The westerlies can affect transoceanic travel and weather prediction due to their influence on the movement of high and low-pressure systems

Characteristics:

• Prevailing Westerlies: These winds are predominant in the mid-latitudes (between 30 and 60 degrees north and south of the equator). They blow from the subtropical high-pressure belts towards the poles.
• Jet Streams: High-altitude westerly winds known as jet streams are important in influencing weather patterns and the movement of weather systems across the globe. They are fast flowing and occur in the upper levels of the atmosphere.
• Polar Front: In the mid-latitudes, the westerlies interact with polar easterlies near the polar front, leading to the development of extratropical cyclones and storms

 

 

4.How does monsoon occur in India?

Monsoons in India occur due to seasonal changes in wind patterns and temperature differences between land and sea.

Here's a concise explanation of the process:

• Differential heating: During summer, the Indian landmass heats up more quickly than the surrounding Indian Ocean.
• Low pressure system: The heated land creates a low-pressure area over the Indian subcontinent.
• Wind direction shift: This low pressure draws in moisture-laden winds from the cooler Indian Ocean towards the land.
• Orographic lift: As these winds encounter geographical features like the Western Ghats or the Himalayas, they are forced to rise.
• Condensation and precipitation: The rising air cools, causing water vapor to condense and form clouds, leading to heavy rainfall.
• Duration: This pattern typically lasts from June to September, bringing the majority of India's annual rainfall.

 

5.What are the conditions that determine the onset of monsoon?

 

• The primary driver is the temperature difference between the land and the surrounding sea. During summer, the land heats up faster than the ocean, creating a low-pressure area over the land and a high-pressure area over the ocean. This pressure difference leads to the movement of moist air from the ocean to the land
• Warm sea surface temperatures are crucial as they increase the evaporation rate, contributing to the formation of moist air masses that drive the monsoon rains.
• The monsoon winds, which are part of the larger atmospheric circulation, shift according to the seasonal temperature differences. The southwest monsoon, for instance, is driven by the southwest winds that carry moisture from the Indian Ocean to the Indian subcontinent.
• The geographical features, such as mountain ranges, play a significant role. For example, the Western Ghats in India force moist air to rise, cool, and condense, leading to heavy rainfall on the windward side
• The movement and strength of the high-pressure systems over the oceans and low-pressure systems over the land influence the intensity and timing of the monsoon.
• Phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña can affect the strength and timing of the monsoon. For example, El Niño can lead to weaker monsoons due to altered wind patterns and sea surface temperatures

6.What is the impact of La-Nina and El Nino on monsoon?

 

La Niña and El Niño, both phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, have significant impacts on the monsoon patterns around the world.

 

Here’s how each affects the monsoon:

El Niño

• El Niño is generally associated with a weaker Indian monsoon. The warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean during El Niño tends to disrupt the normal atmospheric circulation patterns, leading to reduced rainfall over the Indian subcontinent.
• The onset of the monsoon can be delayed, and the overall intensity of the rainfall during the monsoon season might be lower than usual
•  El Niño often brings drier conditions to Southeast Asia and northern Australia, leading to droughts and reduced rainfall
• Eastern and southern Africa may experience drier conditions as well

La Niña

• La Niña, characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, is typically associated with a stronger Indian monsoon. It often leads to increased rainfall over the Indian subcontinent
• The enhanced monsoon can lead to heavier rains and potentially more frequent and intense flooding
• La Niña tends to bring wetter conditions to Southeast Asia and northern Australia, potentially causing heavy rains and flooding
• La Niña can lead to wetter conditions in parts of northern South America

 

7.Way Forward

 

The intermittent development of a wind shear zone — where winds move with different velocities and directions — along latitudes 20 ° N between central and peninsular India

 

 

 

For Prelims: Indian and World Geography For Mains: GS-I, GS-III: Important Geophysical phenomena and environment

 

 

Previous Year Questions   1.Consider the following statements: (UPSC CSE 2012)   1. The duration of the monsoon decreases from southern India to northern India. 2. The amount of annual rainfall in the northern plains of India decreases from east to west.   Which of the statements given above is/are correct? A. 1 Only B. 2 Only C. Both 1 and 2 D. Neither 1 nor Answer (C) The duration of the monsoon indeed decreases from southern India to northern India. The southern part of India experiences the monsoon earlier and for a longer duration compared to the northern part. The amount of annual rainfall in the northern plains of India decreases from east to west. The eastern part of the northern plains receives more rainfall compared to the western part, largely due to the influence of the Bay of Bengal branch of the Southwest Monsoon.

 

 

Source: The Hindu

 

 

GAGANYAAN

1. Context 

The Indian Space Research Organisation on Sunday said it had successfully carried out three major tests of the Gaganyaan crew module systems.

2. Gaganyaan Mission

• Gaganyaan, meaning "Sky Craft" in Sanskrit, is India's ambitious human spaceflight program aimed at sending Indian astronauts to space.
• It is a testament to India's growing prowess in the field of space exploration and a source of immense national pride.
• The program, spearheaded by the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), envisions launching a crewed orbital spacecraft into low Earth orbit (LEO) for a period of up to seven days.
• The spacecraft will carry three astronauts, marking a historic first for India.

3. About The TV-D1 Mission

• The TV-D1 mission consists of two abort missions designed to test the safety mechanisms that will allow the Gaganyaan crew to escape the spacecraft during emergencies.
• In this mission, a rocket will ascend to an altitude of nearly 17 km before an abort signal triggers the separation of the crew module.
• The crew module will then descend using a parachute for a splashdown in the Bay of Bengal.
• The TV-D1 mission will have a total duration of 532 seconds, from liftoff at 8 a.m. to the crew module's splashdown about 10 km from the Sriharikota coast.
• The rocket used for this mission is ISRO's low-cost Test Vehicle, designed specifically for system testing.
• During the flight, the rocket will reach a peak relative velocity of 363 meters per second, approximately 1307 km per hour. It's important to note that the crew module will be empty for this test.

4. Key Objectives of the TV-D1 Mission

The TV-D1 mission serves two primary objectives.

1. It aims to demonstrate the capabilities of the new Test Vehicle, hence its name Test Vehicle-Demonstration 1 (TV-D1).
2. It will showcase a basic version of the crew module, testing the systems responsible for separating the crew module from the rocket during an abort mission and ensuring the safe escape of astronauts.

The TV-D1 mission simulates an abort condition during the ascent trajectory, corresponding to a Mach number of 1.2, as anticipated in the Gaganyaan mission.

5. The Low-Cost Test Vehicle

• Unlike the upcoming full-fledged test flight of the crew module into space and back, which will use the human-rated LVM3 rocket in 2024, the TV-D1 mission employs a low-cost basic rocket.
• This Test Vehicle utilizes existing liquid propulsion technology but introduces innovations such as the throttleable and restartable L110 Vikas engine, capable of controlling propellant use.
• ISRO developed this cost-effective solution as each GSLV Mk III launch, which was previously used for such missions, costs between Rs 300-400 crore.

6. Safety and Crew Escape System

• Safety remains a top priority for ISRO in the Gaganyaan project, especially in light of international incidents involving space missions.
• The TV-D1 mission aims to test the systems ensuring the crew module's safety, such as environmental control, life support systems, and an integrated vehicle health management system.
• This system can detect anomalies that may jeopardize astronauts' safety and initiate mission abort procedures.

7. Preparations and Timeline for Gaganyaan

• ISRO has set a target timeframe for the Gaganyaan mission in 2024, with flexibility based on the development stages and ensuring the mission's safety.
• The schedule includes an unmanned mission at the beginning of the next year, abort missions this year, and discussions of the manned mission for late 2024 or early 2025.
• ISRO has completed the human rating of the LVM 3 rocket and performed static tests for human-rated solid rocket boosters.

8. Conclusion

The TV-D1 mission represents a significant milestone in the Gaganyaan program, as it integrates a near-complete system for a flight test. The success of this mission paved the way for further qualification tests and unmanned missions, ultimately leading to the first Gaganyaan mission with Indian astronauts. ISRO's dedication to safety and rigorous testing is paramount as India advances its space exploration endeavours.

 

For Prelims: Gaganyaan programme, TV-D1 mission, Low Earth Orbit, Isro, LVM3, GSLV Mk III,  For Mains:  1. Discuss the key objectives of the TV-D1 mission within the Gaganyaan program. How does this mission contribute to astronaut safety and the overall success of Gaganyaan? (250 Words)

 

 

Previous Year Questions   1. With reference to India's satellite launch vehicles, consider the following statements: (UPSC 2018) 1. PSLVs launch satellites useful for Earth resources monitoring whereas GSLVs are designed mainly to launch communication satellites. 2. Satellites launched by PSLV appear to remain permanently fixed in the same position in the sky, as viewed from a particular location on Earth. 3. GSLV Mk III is a four-stage launch vehicle with the first and third stages using solid rocket motors; and the second and fourth stages using liquid rocket engines. Which of the statements given above is/are correct? A. 1 only B. 2 and 3 C. 1 and 2 D. 3 only Answer: A   2. India's first human space mission "Gaganyaan" will be launched in which year? (ESIC UDC 2022) A. 2022          B. 2023          C. 2024          D. 2025      E.  2026   Answer: B   3. Find the incorrect statements, about the Gaganyaan Mission of India. (MPSC 2020) 1. Four pilots from Indian Air Force were shortlisted to be astronauts of Gaganyaan. 2. They will be trained at Yuri Gagarin Cosmonaut Centre in Russia. 3. This mission was announced by Prime Minister in 2014. 4. It is scheduled for 2022 with a team of 5 crew members and a month-long stay in space. A. 1, 2, 3, 4     B.  2, 3, 4           C. 3, 4          D. 2, 3   Answer: C   4. ISRO is related to: (SSC JE EE 2020) A. space research      B. agricultural research          C. seed research          D. marine research Answer: A   5.  Which of the following pairs is/are correctly matched? (UPSC 2014) Spacecraft                                    Purpose Cassini-Huygens:                  Orbiting the Venus and transmitting data to the Earth Messenger:                             Mapping and investigating the Mercury Voyager 1 and 2:                    Exploring the outer solar system Select the correct answer using the code given below: (a) 1 only         (b) 2 and 3 only          (c) 1 and 3 only          (d) 1, 2 and 3 Answer: B 6. Consider the following statements: (UPSC 2016) The Mangalyaan launched by ISRO 1. is also called the Mars Orbiter Mission 2. made India the second country to have a spacecraft orbit the Mars after USA 3. made India the only country to be successful in making its spacecraft orbit the Mars in its very first attempt Which of the statements given above is/are correct? (a) 1 only        (b) 2 and 3 only          (c) 1 and 3 only            (d) 1, 2 and 3 Answer: C

Source: The Indian Express

 

 

                          FLASH FLOODS

1. Context

 

As flash floods due to cloudbursts in the past 24 hours caused damage to several hotels in Pahalgam, a hill station in south Kashmir, the Opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and activists on Sunday flagged the “rampant construction in violation of environmental norms”.

2. What is a Flood

• Flood is an overflow of a large amount of water beyond its normal limits, especially over what is normally dry land.
• Flooding is an overflowing of water onto land that is normally dry. 
• Floods can happen during heavy rains, when ocean waves come on shore, when the snow melts quickly, or when dams or levees break. 
• Damaging flooding may happen with only a few inches of water, or it may cover a house to the rooftop. 
• Floods can occur within minutes or over a long period, and may last days, weeks, or longer. 
• Floods are the most widespread of all weather-related natural disasters.

 

3. Common causes of floods can be divided into the factors triggering them.

These factors include -

• Meteorological factors

• Physical factors

• Human factors

 3.1 Meteorological Factors

The natural causes of floods are discussed below -

• Heavy Rainfall: The season of monsoon
• Cloud Burst: Cloud Burst occurs due to intense precipitation in a short duration which can sometimes be accompanied by hail and storms and can cause a flood.

• Climate Change: According to the International Panel for Climate Change, the rainfall intensity, duration and frequency are going to increase in the future.
• Skewed Rainfall Pattern: 80% of the precipitation takes place in the monsoon months
• Trans-National Rivers: The fact that some of the rivers (like the Brahmaputra, many tributaries of Ganga) causing damage in India to originate in neighbouring countries, adds another complex dimension to the problem
• Cyclone & Heavy rainfall

 

3.2. Physical Factors.

• Insufficient Drainage Management: Improper planning of the drainage system of an area can cause excess water due to heavy rainfall to get stuck and lead to a flood.

• Catchment Area: Catchment area is an area from where the rainfall water flows into a river. This can be a lake or reservoir. During monsoon, when excess water exceeds the limited holding capacity of the catchment area, it leads to floods.

 

3.3. Human Factor

• Siltation: Siltation refers to the flow of silt and sediments in the riverbed. As particles remain suspended in the river and accumulated in the riverbed, it disrupts the flow of the river, causing a flood.

• Improper Agricultural Practices: If farmers are not cautious of the effects of farming practices meaning if they leave the waste material in the river or cannot handle water management properly, it can lead to a flood. 

• Deforestation: Deforestation is one of the major human causes of floods. Trees act like a sponge that helps to hold soil and water and prevent flooding. As trees are being cut down at a fast pace to make way for urbanisation to grow, more water runs towards a river during heavy rainfall. As a result, a flood occurs.

• Collapse of Dams: Dams are built to store water and provide water to people. As dams are human-made, these can be worn out and subsequently collapse causing floods. Also, if heavy rainfall sustains for a long time, State Governments often declare to open dam gates which can lead to a dangerous flood.- Temples of Modern India to Water Bombs

• Unplanned Development

• Neglect of Pre-Disaster Planning

 4.Types of Flood

• Coastal Floods: Coastal floods occur when strong winds or storms move towards the coast during high tide.

• Flash Floods: Flash floods usually occur in hilly areas in limited space. Here the sudden heavy rainfall or snow thaws are the causes of flooding. The fast-moving torrent of Flash floods can sweep large objects such as cars, rocks and everything that comes in their path.

• River Floods: River floods occur due to the inflow of water from heavy rainfall, snowmelt or powerful storms.

• Pluvial Floods: Pluvial floods occur in areas that cannot hold rainwater and end up forming puddles and ponds. eg- rural areas.

• Urban Floods: When the drainage system of urban areas fails to absorb rainwater.

5. Damages Caused by Floods in India

The impacts of floods affect both individuals and communities and have social-environmental consequences. 

• Human Loss and Property Loss: Every year, millions of people become homeless and washed away due to floods.

• Spread of Communicable Diseases: Waterborne diseases like cholera, typhoid fever, hepatitis, and leptospirosis spread in flood-affected areas. Floods also lead to vector-borne diseases, transmitted through parasites and pathogens such as a mosquito. As a result, the health of flood victims deteriorates.

• Destruction of Crops: Every year, floods destroy a large number of crops.

• Loss of Livestock: Like humans, livestock also get displaced during floods and dies due to the loss of their habitats.

• Disruption of Communication Link and Transportation: Flood causes damage to transportation links such as bridges, rail, power plants etc., thus causing communication disruption in those areas.

• Economic and Social Disruption: The economy comes to a standstill as people are forced to move to another place, and revival of this situation takes time.

6. Flood Management

Approaches to dealing with floods may be any one or a combination of the following available options:

• Attempts to modify the flood
• Attempts to modify the susceptibility to flooding damage
• Attempts to modify the loss burden
• Bearing the loss.
• The main thrust of the flood protection programme undertaken in India so far has been an attempt to modify the flood in the form of physical (structural) measures to prevent the floodwaters from reaching potential damage centres and modify susceptibility to flooding damage through early warning systems.

6.1 Structural measures

The following structural measures are generally adopted for flood protection:

• Embankments, flood walls, sea walls
• Dams and reservoirs
• Natural detention basins
• Channel improvement
• Drainage improvement
• Diversion of flood waters.

 

6.2 Non-structural measures

Non-structural measures include:

• Flood forecasting and warning
• Floodplain zoning
• Flood fighting
• Floodproofing
• Flood insurance.

7.What are Flash Floods

• Flash floods are the most dangerous kind of floods because they combine the destructive power of a flood with incredible speed. 
• Flash floods occur when heavy rainfall exceeds the ability of the ground to absorb it. They also occur when water fills normally dry creeks or streams or enough water accumulates for streams to overtop their banks, causing rapid rises of water in a short amount of time. 
• They can happen within minutes of the causative rainfall, limiting the time available to warn and protect the public.

 8. Status of Floods in India

8.1 NDRF Report

• 40 million hectares (10% of the land mass) in India are prone to floods.
• On average every year, 5 million hectares of land are affected, 1600 lives are lost and more than Rs. 1,800 crores is incurred.

8.2 Statistics

• Between 1970 and 2004, 3 floods occurred per year on average. However, between 2005 and 2019, the yearly average rose to 11. 19 districts were affected annually on an average until 2005. After 2005, the number jumped to 55.
• 2017 analysis suggests that 4.48 million Indians are exposed to riverine floods, the highest in the world.

9. What areas are at risk from flash floods?

• Densely populated areas are at high risk for flash floods. The construction of buildings, highways, driveways, and parking lots increases runoff by reducing the amount of rain absorbed by the ground. This runoff increases the flash flood potential.
• Areas near rivers are at risk from floods. Embankments, known as levees, are often built along rivers and are used to prevent high water from flooding bordering land. 
• Dam failures can send a sudden destructive surge of water downstream. 
• Mountains and steep hills produce rapid runoff, which causes streams to rise quickly. 
• Saturated soils can also lead to rapid flash flooding. 
• Sometimes the thunderstorms that produce heavy rainfall may happen well upstream from the impacted area, making it harder to recognize a dangerous situation.
• Very intense rainfall can produce flooding even on dry soil.
• Additional high-risk locations include recent burn areas in mountains and urban areas from pavement and roofs which enhance runoff.
• Ice jams and snowmelt can help cause flash floods. A deep snowpack increases runoff produced by melting snow. Heavy spring rains falling on melting snowpacks can produce flash flooding.

 

10. The impact of floods in India

11. Impact of flood on wildlife

12. Government actions regarding flood management

12.1.The National Flood Management Commission

• Launched in 1954
• Different structural and non-structural methods have been applied by various states under it.

12.2.Rashtriya Barh Aayog, 1976

• To evolve a scientific, integrated and coordinated approach to flood control
• It recommended Flood plain zoning and management to regulate human activities.

12.3.Regional task forces, 1996

• It was set up to review the impact of the recommendations of Rashtriya Barh Aayog.
• It recommended large flood moderation projects, following up the enactment of flood plain zoning.

12.4.National Water Policy, 2002

• It recommended
• Basin-wise plan for flood control and management.
• Flood control to be given overriding consideration in reservoir regulation policy.
• More emphasis on non-structural measures.
• Strict regulation of settlements and economic activities in flood plains.

12.5. K. Mittal Committee, 2003
Its main recommendations were

• Afforestation and treatment of catchment area, right land-use practices and others.
• In the river itself a construction of suitable hydraulic structures that may trap silt.
• Embankment along the aggrading river should be constructed, only after proper studies are made on its behaviour especially due to sedimentation load and resultant morphological changes.

 

For Prelims: Cloudbursts, flash floods, landslides, Cumulonimbus Clouds, Water Vapour, Floodplain Zoning, Green Infrastructure. For Mains: 1. What is a cloudburst, and how does it differ from regular rainfall? Explain the causes and meteorological factors that contribute to the occurrence of a cloudburst.

 

 

Previous year Questions 1. Which of the following statements with regard to Cloudburst is/are correct? (UPSC CDS 2017) 1. It is defined as sudden localized very heavy downpour with cloud thunder and lightning. 2. It mostly occurs in the hilly areas. 3. It results in a very high intensity of rainfall, i.e., 250 mm-300 mm in a couple of hours. 4. It occurs only during the daytime. Select the correct answer using the code given below.  A. 1, 2 and 3 B. 1, 3 and 4 C. 2 and 3 only D. 2 only Answer: A

 Source: The Indian Express

 

 

ETHANOL BLENDING

 

1. Context

Countering criticism over its ethanol blended petrol programme, the government on Friday said while the current base fuel E20 — 80% petrol, 20% ethanol — can reduce fuel economy in some vehicles by 3-5%, it is cleaner and superior in other performance parameters vis-a-vis pure petrol and lower ethanol-petrol blends. 

 

2. Ethanol

• Ethanol, also known as ethyl alcohol, is a type of alcohol commonly used as a biofuel and a key ingredient in alcoholic beverages.
• It is a clear, colorless liquid with a characteristic odor and a slightly sweet taste.
• Ethanol has a wide range of applications and is produced through the fermentation of sugars by yeast or other microorganisms.

3. Ethanol Blending

• Ethanol blending refers to the practice of mixing ethanol with gasoline or other fuels to create a blended fuel.
• Ethanol is a biofuel derived from renewable sources such as sugarcane, corn, or other plant materials.
• It is commonly used as an additive to gasoline in various parts of the world to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote cleaner fuel options.
• In the context of transportation, the most common form of ethanol blending is with gasoline, creating a blend known as ethanol-gasoline blend or gasohol.
• The most common ethanol-gasoline blends are E10 and E15, indicating the percentage of ethanol in the mixture. For example, E10 contains 10% ethanol and 90% gasoline, while E15 contains 15% ethanol and 85% gasoline.

 

4. What does 100% blending mean?

• 100% blending refers to the use of pure ethanol as fuel. Compared to ethanol, petrol has a higher energy density, meaning one litre of petrol can deliver nearly 45–55% more energy than the same quantity of ethanol.

• Most conventional petrol engines are designed and approved only for E20 fuel, which contains 20% ethanol blending. Older vehicles generally support even lower ethanol content.
• In contrast, fuels such as E85 or E100 require flex-fuel engines that are specifically engineered to operate with varying ethanol concentrations.
• At present, flex-fuel vehicles are not commonly available in India. Toyota has launched a flex-fuel version of the Toyota Innova Hycross, priced around ₹3–4 lakh higher than its petrol counterpart.
• Maruti Suzuki and Hyundai are also reportedly developing prototype models. These vehicles require specialised features such as corrosion-resistant fuel systems, advanced sensors, and finely calibrated engine control units to handle higher ethanol blends efficiently

5. Benefits of Ethanol Blending

• Ethanol is considered a renewable fuel because it is derived from plant materials that absorb carbon dioxide during their growth. When blended with gasoline, ethanol can help reduce the carbon footprint of transportation fuels, as it emits fewer greenhouse gases compared to pure gasoline.
• By blending ethanol with gasoline, countries can reduce their reliance on imported fossil fuels and promote energy security.
• Ethanol has a higher octane rating than gasoline, which can improve engine performance and increase fuel efficiency.
• Ethanol production often relies on agricultural feedstocks, providing economic benefits to farmers and rural communities.
• Ethanol-gasoline blends can help reduce harmful pollutants such as carbon monoxide and volatile organic compounds, contributing to improved air quality.
• Mixing 20 percent ethanol in petrol can potentially reduce the auto fuel import bill by a yearly $4 billion, or Rs 30,000 crore. 
• Another major benefit of ethanol blending is the extra income it gives to farmers. Ethanol is derived from sugarcane and also foodgrains. Hence, farmers can earn extra income by selling their surplus produce to ethanol blend manufacturers.

6. What is E20 Fuel?

• E20 fuel is a type of blended fuel that contains 20% ethanol and 80% gasoline.
• It is an ethanol-gasoline blend, similar to other common blends like E10 (10% ethanol) and E15 (15% ethanol).
• The percentage of ethanol in the blend is denoted by the "E" followed by the percentage of ethanol content.
• E20 fuel is considered a higher ethanol blend compared to E10 and E15, which are more widely available in various countries.
• The use of E20 is part of efforts to promote renewable fuels and reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector.

 

7. India and Ethanol Blending

• In India, ethanol is primarily manufactured using sugarcane, which is known to consume large quantities of water.
• Excessive diversion of sugarcane for ethanol production may affect sugar supply, thereby influencing food prices and availability.
• To address this concern, the government has been encouraging the production of second-generation ethanol derived from agricultural waste such as rice straw and other crop residues. This approach is also expected to help reduce stubble burning by farmers.

• However, producing ethanol is still not cheaper than manufacturing petrol, making government support and regulated pricing necessary. There are also environmental and economic concerns associated with ethanol production.
• Although ethanol releases lower levels of carbon monoxide and particulate pollutants during combustion compared to petrol, sugarcane-based ethanol production involves significant land usage, high water consumption, and dependence on agricultural inputs such as fertilizers
• India has been attempting to strengthen its energy security by diversifying its energy sources. This includes exploring alternative crude oil suppliers, securing additional uranium resources, and promoting renewable energy through various incentives.
• Some efforts to access global energy resources have faced challenges due to sanctions imposed by the United States.
• At the same time, domestic manufacturing capabilities in the energy sector remain limited, and attempts to significantly boost indigenous oil and gas production have achieved only modest success.
• According to Nitin Gadkari, India must eventually reduce hydrogen production costs to nearly $1 per kilogram if it aims to emerge as an energy-exporting nation. Currently, global hydrogen production costs range between $3 and $6 per kilogram.
• The National Green Hydrogen Mission has been launched with this objective in mind. Nevertheless, the hydrogen sector still faces major obstacles, particularly the absence of commercially viable systems for hydrogen transport and storage

 

8. Significance of E20 fuel

• Reduced Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Ethanol is derived from renewable plant sources, and blending it with gasoline can help reduce the carbon footprint of transportation fuels, contributing to efforts to combat climate change.
• Energy Security: By using more domestically produced ethanol, countries can reduce their dependence on imported fossil fuels and enhance energy security.
• Improved Engine Performance: Ethanol's higher octane rating can enhance engine performance and increase fuel efficiency in certain vehicles.
• Support for Agriculture: Ethanol production often relies on agricultural feedstocks, supporting farmers and rural economies.

9. Challenges in Ethanol Blending Programme

While ethanol blending in transportation fuels offers various benefits, there are several challenges that countries may face in implementing and sustaining a successful ethanol blending program. Some of these challenges include:

• Infrastructure and Distribution: Establishing the necessary infrastructure for blending and distributing ethanol-gasoline blends can be a significant challenge. This includes ensuring that fuel stations have the proper storage facilities and compatible pumps to dispense blended fuels.
• Compatibility with Vehicles: Not all vehicles are designed to run on high ethanol blends like E20 or E85. Older vehicles or vehicles from certain manufacturers may not be compatible with these blends, leading to potential engine damage or decreased performance.
• Fuel Quality and Standards: Maintaining consistent fuel quality is essential to prevent engine damage and ensure consumer confidence. Governments and fuel suppliers must adhere to strict quality standards and monitor the blending process to avoid issues with fuel performance.
• Feedstock Availability and Cost: The production of ethanol relies on agricultural feedstocks, such as corn, sugarcane, or other biomass. The availability and cost of these feedstocks can vary, affecting the overall cost of ethanol production and blending.
• Land Use and Food Security Concerns: Utilizing agricultural land for ethanol production can raise concerns about competing with food production and potentially impacting food security in some regions.
• Competing Uses for Ethanol: Ethanol has various applications beyond fuel blending, such as in the production of alcoholic beverages, pharmaceuticals, and industrial chemicals. Competing uses can influence the availability and cost of ethanol for blending.

10. National Biofuel Policy

• India has a National Policy on Biofuels, which was first introduced in 2009 and later revised in 2018.  The policy aims to promote the use of biofuels to reduce the country's dependence on fossil fuels, enhance energy security, promote sustainable development, and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.
• The policy encourages the blending of biofuels with conventional fossil fuels to create biofuel blends. It focuses on the production and utilization of first-generation biofuels like ethanol and biodiesel, as well as advanced biofuels made from non-food feedstock.
• The policy sets targets for blending biofuels with conventional fuels in the transportation sector. For instance, the policy aimed for a 20% ethanol blending in petrol and a 5% biodiesel blending in diesel by 2030.
• The policy emphasizes the development and promotion of second-generation biofuels, which are produced from non-food feedstock, such as agricultural residues, waste, and non-edible oils. This helps avoid competition with food crops and ensures sustainability.
• The policy supports research and development initiatives in the biofuels sector, aimed at improving production processes, enhancing feedstock availability, and developing cost-effective technologies for biofuel production.
• The policy focuses on creating a robust supply chain for biofuels, from feedstock cultivation and collection to biofuel production, distribution, and marketing. This helps in ensuring a smooth and efficient supply of biofuels across the country.

11. Can ethanol be used as an aviation fuel?

 

• The aviation sector remains one of the most difficult industries to decarbonise because large commercial aircraft currently cannot rely on batteries or hydrogen technology at scale.
• As a result, Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is considered one of the main solutions for meeting global emission reduction targets in aviation.
• For ethanol to be suitable for aircraft engines, it must undergo a specialised conversion process known as alcohol-to-jet (ATJ).
• During this process, ethanol is dehydrated, its hydrocarbon chains are extended, and it is further treated through hydrogenation.
• This conversion ensures that pure ethanol is not directly used in jet engines, thereby avoiding problems such as reduced engine performance or moisture absorption that could block fuel systems.
• The final ATJ fuel closely resembles conventional kerosene in its chemical composition, allowing it to be used with existing aviation fuel infrastructure.
• ASTM International, which establishes international aviation fuel standards, has approved the ATJ production pathway and currently permits blending of up to 50% ATJ-based fuel in Sustainable Aviation Fuel.
• However, expanding ethanol use for both SAF production and road transport blending could place additional strain on the availability of raw feedstock materials used for ethanol manufacturing

For Prelims: Ethanol Blending, E20 fuel, Greenhouse Gas Emission, National Policy on Biofuels, Food Security, and Gasoline. For Mains: 1. Discuss the benefits and challenges of ethanol blending in transportation fuels as a strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote renewable energy sources. (250 Words).

 

Previous year Question 1. According to India's National Policy on Biofuels, which of the following can be used as raw materials for the production of biofuels? (UPSC 2020) 1. Cassava 2. Damaged wheat grains 3. Groundnut seeds 4. Horse gram 5. Rotten potatoes 6. Sugar beet Select the correct answer using the code given below: A. 1, 2, 5, and 6 only B. 1, 3, 4, and 6 only C. 2, 3, 4, and 5 only D. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 Answer: A

Source: The Indian Express

 

 

WESTERN GHATS - LANDSLIDES

 

 

1. Context

The landslides in recent days in the Western Ghats and other parts of India have reignited discussions on the need for an early warning system for such events

 

 

2.What are the possible causes for landslides in Western ghat?

 

• Experts agree that multiple factors contribute to landslides, both natural and human-induced. Nearly half of Kerala’s land—19,301 sq km or 49.7%—is susceptible to landslides, according to the Geological Survey of India (GSI).
• The region’s heavy rainfall and the steep slopes of the Western Ghats make Wayanad particularly vulnerable, with 31.54% of the district at high risk, as per IIT-Delhi research.
• Human activities have heightened the risk of natural disasters; increased construction and changes in agricultural practices are key contributors.
• Wayanad has seen a tourism boom in recent years, with homestays and monsoon tourism gaining popularity. Ecologist Madhav Gadgil highlights the construction of resorts, artificial lakes, and abandoned quarries as inappropriate developments in this sensitive zone.
• Long-term land use changes, beginning with British-era tea plantations and continuing post-Independence, have also played a role.
• A 2022 study in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health reported a 62% decrease in forest cover and an 1,800% increase in plantation areas from 1950 to 2018. Monocropping has led to the destabilization of topsoil previously held by forest roots.
• Climate change has indirectly contributed by altering rainfall patterns in the state. The warming Arabian Sea fosters deep cloud systems, resulting in intense rainfall over short periods.
• Such events have become more frequent even as the number of rainy days during the monsoon has decreased.
• Despite Wayanad receiving 527 mm of rainfall in 48 hours before the landslide, the district has had normal monsoon rainfall averages, while Kerala has experienced deficits, according to the India Meteorological Department.
• The previously cool, humid environment with consistent drizzles and monsoon rains is now characterized by hotter, drier summers and intense monsoon downpours.
• This shift increases landslide risks, as dry soils absorb less water and heavy rains cause runoff, leading to landslides

 

3.What are the natural and man-made factors that triggered large-scale death and destruction in Kerala?

 

Large-scale death and destruction in Kerala have been triggered by a combination of natural and man-made factors:

Natural Factors

• Kerala experiences intense monsoon rains, which can lead to flooding and landslides. The Western Ghats, with their steep slopes, are particularly prone to such events
• The topography of regions like Wayanad, which have a significant slope, makes them highly susceptible to landslides
• Changes in climate patterns have resulted in more intense and concentrated rainfall events, even though the overall number of rainy days has decreased. The warming Arabian Sea has contributed to the formation of deep cloud systems that lead to heavy downpours

Man-Made Factors

• There has been a significant reduction in forest cover due to plantation agriculture and other developmental activities. This loss of vegetation weakens the soil structure, making it more prone to landslides
• Unregulated construction, including resorts, homestays, and other infrastructure, has destabilized the land. Inappropriate development in sensitive zones, such as the construction of artificial lakes and abandonment of quarries, has exacerbated the risk.
• Changes in crop patterns, including the shift to monocropping, have degraded the land. Monocropping loosens the topsoil, which was previously held together by the roots of diverse forest plants
• The rise in tourism, particularly monsoon tourism, has led to increased construction and human activity in vulnerable areas, further destabilizing the environment
• Long-term changes in land use, starting with British-era tea plantations and continuing in the post-independence era, have had a lasting impact on the region's ecological stability

 

4. What are Gadgil Committee reccomendations?

 

The Gadgil Committee, formally known as the Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel (WGEEP), was established by the Ministry of Environment and Forests of India in 2010 under the chairmanship of ecologist Madhav Gadgil. The committee was tasked with assessing the ecological status of the Western Ghats and providing recommendations for its conservation and sustainable development.

 

Here are some of the key recommendations made by the Gadgil Committee:

 

• Ecologically Sensitive Zones (ESZ): The committee proposed classifying the entire Western Ghats into three zones based on their ecological sensitivity:
  • ESZ 1: Highest sensitivity areas where stringent regulations should apply.
  • ESZ 2: Moderate sensitivity areas with moderate regulations.
  • ESZ 3: Lowest sensitivity areas where the least restrictive regulations would apply
• Ban on Certain Activities in ESZ 1: Activities such as mining, quarrying, and large-scale constructions should be banned in ESZ 1. Deforestation and conversion of public lands for private purposes should also be prohibited.
• Regulation of Developmental Activities: Developmental activities in ESZ 2 and ESZ 3 should be carefully regulated to ensure they do not harm the environment. This includes control over tourism, infrastructure projects, and industrial activities
• Protection of Forests: Emphasis on the conservation and regeneration of natural forests. Plantation activities should be eco-friendly, promoting native species.
• Biodiversity Conservation: Measures to protect the rich biodiversity of the Western Ghats, including the establishment of wildlife corridors and conservation areas.

 

5. Significance of Western Ghats

 

The Western Ghats, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, hold immense ecological, climatic, cultural, and economic significance:

 

• The Western Ghats are one of the world's eight "hottest hotspots" of biological diversity. They host over 7,400 species of flowering plants, 139 mammal species, 508 bird species, 179 amphibian species, 6,000 insect species, and 290 freshwater fish species, many of which are endemic.
• A significant proportion of the species found in the Western Ghats are endemic, meaning they are not found anywhere else in the world. This includes many unique species of plants, animals, and microorganisms
• The region provides crucial ecosystem services, such as water purification, climate regulation, soil stabilization, and carbon sequestration
• The Western Ghats play a critical role in the Indian monsoon system. They intercept the moisture-laden winds from the southwest, causing heavy rainfall on the western side, which supports lush forests and agriculture
• The forests of the Western Ghats act as a climate buffer, moderating temperatures and maintaining regional climate stability
• The Western Ghats are the source of numerous rivers, including the Godavari, Krishna, and Cauvery, which provide water to millions of people in peninsular India. These rivers are crucial for drinking water, irrigation, and hydropower
• The Western Ghats are home to numerous indigenous communities and tribal groups who have lived in harmony with the environment for centuries. These communities have rich cultural traditions and knowledge systems linked to the forests and biodiversity
• Many areas in the Western Ghats are considered sacred by local communities and host numerous temples, shrines, and pilgrimage sites.
• The Western Ghats support diverse agricultural systems, including spice plantations (pepper, cardamom), tea, coffee, and rubber. These crops are economically significant both domestically and for export

 

6.Way forward

 

The Geological Survey of India (GSI) has been appointed as the primary agency for conducting landslide studies and developing an early warning system and protocols for reducing landslide risks. However, according to a senior GSI official, this system is still in the experimental phase and will require an additional four to five years before it is ready for public implementation. Since the start of the 2024 monsoon, regional landslide forecast bulletins have been issued to state and district authorities in Wayanad, mostly indicating a "low" probability of landslides, with a "moderate" probability predicted on July 30, 2024

 

 

 

For Prelims: Western Ghats, Eastern Ghats, Landslides, Flash floods For Mains: GS 1 - Indian Geography

 

Previous year questions

1. Which of the following statements in respect of landslides are correct? (NDA 2022) 1. These occur only on gentle slopes during rain. 2. They generally occur in clay-rich soil. 3. Earthquakes trigger landslides. Select the correct answer using the code given below. A. 1 and 2         B. 2 and 3            C. 1 and 3              D. 1, 2 and 3  Answer: (B) For Mains: 1. Describe the various causes and the effects of landslides. Mention the important components of the National Landslide Risk Management Strategy. (250 words) (2021)

 

Source: The Hindu