• The aviation sector remains one of the most difficult industries to decarbonise because large commercial aircraft currently cannot rely on batteries or hydrogen technology at scale.
• As a result, Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is considered one of the main solutions for meeting global emission reduction targets in aviation.
• For ethanol to be suitable for aircraft engines, it must undergo a specialised conversion process known as alcohol-to-jet (ATJ).
• During this process, ethanol is dehydrated, its hydrocarbon chains are extended, and it is further treated through hydrogenation.
• This conversion ensures that pure ethanol is not directly used in jet engines, thereby avoiding problems such as reduced engine performance or moisture absorption that could block fuel systems.
• The final ATJ fuel closely resembles conventional kerosene in its chemical composition, allowing it to be used with existing aviation fuel infrastructure.
• ASTM International, which establishes international aviation fuel standards, has approved the ATJ production pathway and currently permits blending of up to 50% ATJ-based fuel in Sustainable Aviation Fuel.
• However, expanding ethanol use for both SAF production and road transport blending could place additional strain on the availability of raw feedstock materials used for ethanol manufacturing

INDUS WATER TREATY

1. Context

2. Is unilateral suspension permissible?

• The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) cannot be modified or terminated by one country alone. Article XII explicitly states that the agreement may only be ended through a "duly ratified treaty" mutually accepted by both India and Pakistan.

• India’s reference to placing the treaty “in abeyance” in its communication with Pakistan lacks legal grounding, as international law and the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (VCLT), 1969—which serves as the foundational framework for international agreements—do not recognize this term.

• Under Article 62 of the VCLT, a treaty may be withdrawn from if there has been a “fundamental change of circumstances” compared to when it was first signed.

• Although India is not a signatory and Pakistan has signed but not ratified the VCLT, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), in its ruling on the Fisheries Jurisdiction cases, recognized Article 62 as part of customary international law—making it applicable even without formal ratification.

• India appears to be appealing to this legal doctrine in its letter, which emphasized that a “fundamental change in circumstances” warrants a reassessment of its commitments under the IWT.

•  For instance, in the 1997 Gabcíkovo-Nagymaros case involving Hungary and Slovakia’s dam project, Hungary claimed that evolving political and economic conditions, along with potential environmental risks, justified ending the treaty.

• The ICJ dismissed these claims, asserting that the cited changes were not directly tied to the treaty’s central goal of cooperative energy generation

3.How will this have effect on Pakistan?

• Over 80% of Pakistan’s agricultural activities and nearly one-third of its hydropower production rely on the Indus basin's water resources.
• Despite this heavy dependence, analysts point out that India does not have the extensive water storage facilities or a widespread canal network necessary to retain the vast volumes—tens of billions of cubic metres—of water from the western rivers.
• India’s existing infrastructure primarily comprises run-of-the-river hydropower projects, which are not designed for significant water storage.
• Nevertheless, the primary concern lies in the unpredictability of water flows, which poses a serious threat to Pakistan’s largely agriculture-based economy

4. Applications moved by Pakistan and India earlier

• The World Bank, the third party to the Treaty and the acknowledged arbiter of disputes were, meanwhile faced with a unique situation of having received two separate requests for the same dispute.
• New Delhi feels that the World Bank is just a facilitator and has a limited role.
• On December 12, 2016, the World Bank announced a "pause" in the separate processes initiated by India and Pakistan under the Indus Waters Treaty to allow the two countries to consider alternative ways to resolve their disagreements.
• The regular meetings of Indus Waters Commissioners resumed in 2017 and India tried to use these to find mutually agreeable solutions between 2017 and 2022.
• Pakistan refused to discuss these issues at these meetings.
• At Pakistan's continued insistence, the World Bank, in March last year, initiated actions on the requests of both India and Pakistan.

• They will carry out their duties in their capacity as subject matter experts and independently of any other appointments they may currently hold.
• On October 19, 2022, the Ministry of External Affairs said, " We have noted the World Bank's announcement to concurrently appoint a Neutral Expert and a Chair of the Court of Arbitration in the ongoing matter related to the Kishanganga and Ratle projects".
• Recognising the World Bank's admission in its announcement that "carrying out two processes concurrently poses practical and legal challenges".
• India would assess the matter that "India believes that the implementation of the Indus Water Treaty must be in the letter and spirit of the Treaty".
• Such parallel consideration of the same issues is not provided for in any provisions of the Treaty and India has been repeatedly citing the possibility of the two processes delivering contradictory rulings, which could lead to an unprecedented and legally untenable situation, which is unforeseen in Treaty provisions.

5. Dispute redressal mechanism 

• The dispute redressal mechanism provided under Article IX of the IWT is graded.
• It's a 3-level mechanism.
• So, whenever India plans to start a project, under the Indus Water Treaty, it has to inform Pakistan that it is planning to build a project.
• Pakistan might oppose it and ask for more details. That would mean there is a question and in case there is a question, that question has to be clarified between the two sides at the level of the Indus Commissioners.
• If that difference is not resolved by them, then the level is raised. The question then becomes a difference.
• That difference is to be resolved by another set mechanism, which is the Natural Expert.
• It is at this stage that the World Bank comes into the picture.
• In case the Neutral Expert says that they are not able to resolve the difference or that the issue needs an interpretation of the Treaty, then that difference becomes a dispute.
  It then goes to the third stage the Court of Arbitration.
• To Sum up, it's a very graded and sequential mechanism first Commissioner, then the Neutral Expert and only then the Court of Arbitration.

6. India's notice and its implications

• While the immediate provocation for the modification is to address the issue of two parallel mechanisms, at this point, the implications of India's notice for modifying the treaty are not very clear.
• Article XII (3) of the Treaty that India has invoked is not a dispute redressal mechanism.
• It is in effect, a provision to amend the Treaty.
• However, an amendment or modification can happen only through a "duly ratified Treaty concluded for that purpose between the two governments". 
• Pakistan is under no obligation to agree to India's proposal.
• As of now, it is not clear what happens if Pakistan does not respond to India's notice within 90 days.

• India has not spelt out exactly what it wants to be modified in the Treaty.
• But over the last few years, especially since the Uri attack, there has been a growing demand in India to use the Indus Waters Treaty as a strategic tool, considering that India has the natural advantage of being the upper riparian state.
• India has not fully utilized its rights over the waters of the three east-flowing rivers Ravi, Beas and Sutlej over which India has full control under the Treaty.
  It has also not adequately utilized the limited rights over the three west-flowing rivers Indus, Chenab and Jhelum which are meant for Pakistan.
• Following the Uri attack, India established a high-level task force to exploit the full potential of the Indus Waters Treaty.
• Accordingly, India has been working to start several big and small hydroelectric projects that had either been stalled or were in the planning stages.

For Prelims & Mains