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[DAILY CURRENT AFFAIRS, 10 APRIL 2023]

REPO RATE PAUSE

 
 
1.Context
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI)  kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent amid concerns over the global banking crisis
Even as the central bank expects retail inflation to moderate to 5.2 per cent in FY 2023-24, it pointed out that core inflation for non-food, non-fuel component could stay elevated due to lagged pass-through of input costs.
2. Unchanged Repo rate
  • The decision to keep the repo rate unchanged was taken unanimously by the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)
  • The MPC decided by a majority of five out of six members, to remain focused on withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation progressively aligns with the target, while supporting growth
  • The MPC’s decision to pause in its first meeting of the current financial year will give relief to borrowers as the external benchmark based lending rate (EBLR), which are linked to repo rate, will not increase
  • The RBI has raised the repo rate by 250 basis points (bps) since May 2022, thereby increasing the EBLR by 250 bps. Banks have also raised the lending rate linked to marginal cost of funds-based lending rate (MCLR) in the past 11 months
3. Reasons for the Repo rate Pause
  • The RBI underlined risks from protracted geopolitical tensions, tight global financial conditions and global financial market volatility to its monetary policy outlook. “Global financial market volatility has surged, with potential upsides for imported inflation risks,”
  • Concerns over slowing consumption and tepid private investment have been emerging in policy quarters, with many seeing high-interest rates as a crucial factor in dampening demand
  • The pause by the RBI will help favour the growth-inflation tradeoff towards the former
  • This comes in the backdrop of many global agencies lowering India’s growth forecasts for this financial year amid expectations of global economic slowdown and monetary tightening by other countries
  • Negative real interest rates: a situation where the inflation rate is higher than the nominal interest rate
  • The government has been leaning in favour of a benign pace of rate hikes by the RBI, citing the need for a de-linking of monetary policy stance from that of central banks of developed economies
4. Growth Projection
The RBI has projected real GDP growth for 2023-24 at 6.5 per cent. This is higher than the forecast of 6.4 per cent made in the February 2023 policy
While the change is marginal, it suggests an improvement in economic conditions. However, there are downside risks to this forecast
As per other estimates, growth is likely to slow down sharply from 7 per cent in 2022-23
For instance, the World Bank has recently pegged the Indian economy to grow at 6.3 per cent in 2023-24, while others such as Crisil expect it to be lower at 6 per cent, as global growth slows down and the full impact of higher domestic rates is felt across the economy
5.Monetary Policy Committee
  • The Monetary Policy Committee is the monetary authority of a country that regulates the supply of money in the economy through monetary policy decisions.
  • In general, monetary policy modulates inflation or interest rates in order to ensure price stability and predictable exchange rates with foreign currencies.
  • The Monetary Policy Committee in charge of monetary policy in accordance with the government's development goals.
  • The Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934 empowers the Reserve Bank of India (ie MPC) to set monetary policy under Section 45ZB.
  • Monetary policy can be either contractionary or expansionary, and it is frequently distinguished from fiscal policy, which deals with taxes, government spending, and borrowing.
  • The MPC comprises six members - three officials of the Reserve Bank of India and three external members nominated by the Government of India. 
  • The RBI Governor acts as the ex-officio Chairman of the MPC. Three of the six-member Monetary Policy Committee are external representatives and their appointment is for a term of four years and they are ineligible for re-appointment. 
  • As per the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934, the central bank is required to organize at least four meetings of the MPC in a year.
5.1.Instruments used to regulate Monetary policy
  • Repo Rate: The (fixed) interest rate at which the Reserve Bank provides overnight liquidity to banks against the collateral of government and other approved securities under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF).
  • Reverse Repo Rate: The (fixed) interest rate at which the Reserve Bank absorbs liquidity, on an overnight basis, from banks against the collateral of eligible government securities under the LAF.
  • Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF): The LAF consists of overnight as well as term repo auctions. Progressively, the Reserve Bank has increased the proportion of liquidity injected under fine-tuning variable rate repo auctions of a range of tenors. The aim of the term repo is to help develop the interbank term money market, which in turn can set market-based benchmarks for the pricing of loans and deposits, and hence improve the transmission of monetary policy. The Reserve Bank also conducts variable interest rate reverse repo auctions, as necessitated under the market conditions.
  • Marginal Standing Facility (MSF): A facility under which scheduled commercial banks can borrow an additional amount of overnight money from the Reserve Bank by dipping into their Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) portfolio up to a limit at a penal rate of interest. This provides a safety valve against unanticipated liquidity shocks to the banking system.
  • Corridor: The MSF rate and reverse repo rate determine the corridor for the daily movement in the weighted average call money rate.
  • Bank Rate: It is the rate at which the Reserve Bank is ready to buy or rediscount bills of exchange or other commercial papers. The Bank Rate is published under Section 49 of the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934. This rate has been aligned to the MSF rate and, therefore, changes automatically as and when the MSF rate changes alongside policy repo rate changes.
  • Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR): The average daily balance that a bank is required to maintain with the Reserve Bank as a share of such percentage of its Net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) that the Reserve Bank may notify from time to time in the Gazette of India.
  • Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR): The share of NDTL that a bank is required to maintain in safe and liquid assets, such as unencumbered government securities, cash and gold. Changes in SLR often influence the availability of resources in the banking system for lending to the private sector.
  • Open Market Operations (OMOs): These include both, outright purchase and sale of government securities, for injection and absorption of durable liquidity, respectively.
  • Market Stabilization Scheme (MSS): This instrument for monetary management was introduced in 2004. Surplus liquidity of a more enduring nature arising from large capital inflows is absorbed through the sale of short-dated government securities and treasury bills. The cash so mobilized is held in a separate government account with the Reserve Bank.
 
For Prelims: Monetary Policy, Inflation, GDP, Interest rates
For Mains:
1. What are the pros and cons of raising interest rates for an economy. (250 Words)
 
Previous Year Questions:

If the RBI decides to adopt an expansionist monetary policy, which of the following would it not do? (2020)

(1) Cut and optimize the Statutory Liquidity Ratio

(2) Increase the Marginal Standing Facility Rate

(3) Cut the Bank Rate and Repo Rate

Select the correct answer using the code given below:

A. 1 and 2 only

B. 2 only

C. 1 and 3 only

D. 1, 2 and 3

Answer (B)

 
Source: indianexpress

EL NINO IN 2023

 
 
1.Context

India has had four consecutive years of good monsoons and overall rainfall from 2019 to 2022.In these four years, the country as a whole received an average area-weighted rainfall of 1,268 millimetres (mm) annually and 933.1 mm over the four-month southwest monsoon season (June-September)

2.Background

  • By contrast, the preceding five years from 2014 to 2018 registered an average annual rainfall of just 1,072.1 mm and 812.4 mm during the southwest monsoon
  • The surplus precipitation – more than the “normal” or historical long period annual average of 1,160.1 mm and 868.6 mm for the monsoon season – during the last four years has helped deliver higher agricultural growth, relative to the previous period that recorded poor rain in three (2014, 2015 and 2018) out of the five years
  • According to the national accounts data, the farm sector has grown by an average of 4.3% per year during 2019-20 to 2022-23 (the Modi government’s second term), as against 3.2% during 2014-15 to 2018-19

3. La Nina Bounty rain

  • The bountiful rainfall during 2019-22 has been significantly attributed to La Niña – an atmospheric wind and sea surface temperature (SST) variability phenomenon occurring over the equatorial Pacific, but causing worldwide weather disruptions
  • La Niña basically refers to an abnormal cooling of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean waters off the coasts of Ecuador and Peru
  • Such cooling (SSTs falling 0.5 degrees Celsius or more below a 30-year average for at least five successive three-month periods) is a result of strong trade winds blowing west along the equator, taking warm water from South America towards Asia
  • The warming of the western equatorial Pacific, then, leads to increased evaporation and concentrated cloud-formation activity around that region, whose effects may percolate to India as well
  • The latest La Niña event was one of the longest ever, lasting from July-September 2020 to December-February 2022-23
  • And it brought copious rains to India – just as two previous “strong” La Niñas in 2007-08 and 2010-11, followed by one “moderate” episode in 2011-12, had done
  • The most recent Oceanic Niño Index or ONI value  a three-month running-average SST deviation from the normal in the east-central equatorial Pacific  was minus 0.4 degrees Celsius for January-March 2023
  • Since La Niña is characterised by a negative ONI exceeding or equal to minus 0.5 degrees, it means that the so-called ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) cycle has entered a “neutral” phase

4. Threats by El Nino

  • While La Niña is associated with good rainfall in India, this isn’t the case with El Niño – the opposite “warm” phase of ENSO
  • During El Niño, the trade winds weaken or even reverse: Instead of blowing from east (South America) to west (Indonesia), they could turn into westerlies
  • As the winds blow from the west to east, they cause the masses of warm water to move into the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean
  • The rise in SSTs there, thus, produces increased rainfall along western Latin America, the Caribbean and US Gulf Coast, while depriving Southeast Asia, Australia and India of convective currents
  • The ENSO cycle, as already pointed out, is currently in the “neutral” state
  • According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s most recent update, ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to “persist through the Northern Hemisphere early summer  2023”
  • However, “a transition to El Niño is favoured by July-September 2023”, with its chances “increasing through the fall (September-November)”
  • The Australian Bureau of Meteorology, too, has forecast “a 50% chance that an El Niño may develop later in 2023”
  • This is “about twice the normal likelihood”, the agency has said in its  report, adding that “warmer than average SSTs have already emerged in parts of the eastern tropical Pacific in recent weeks”
  • The India Meteorological Department is scheduled to issue its first long-range forecast of rainfall for the 2023 southwest monsoon in the coming week

5. Implications

  • Most global models are seeing the transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño happening this year
  • But that would probably affect the monsoon only in the second half (August-September) of the season
  • It shows that practically all drought years in India since Independence – marked by large declines in foodgrain production or monsoon failures – have witnessed El Niño events of varying intensity
  • The sole exception was 1966-67, although the year before had recorded a “strong” El Niño (To elaborate, mean SSTs have to be at least 0.5 degrees Celsius higher than the average for a minimum of five overlapping three-month periods to qualify as an El Niño event
  • The positive ONI values or SST deviations have to be 1.5-1.9 degrees for categorisation as “strong”, above 2 degrees for “very strong”, 1-1.4 degrees for “moderate” and 0.5-0.9 degrees for “weak”)
  • While all drought years have invariably been El Niño years, the reverse doesn’t hold true though. Another table below gives a list of all the El Niño years that weren’t bad agriculture years
  • The best examples are 1982-83 and 1997-98. Foodgrain output fell only marginally in these two “very strong” El Niño years
  • Agricultural GDP growth was similarly positive in 1951-52, 1963-64, 1968-69 and 1994-95; all of them saw “moderate” El Niño events
  • To sum up, 2023 could well end the run of good rainfall years since 2019. The statistical probability of that is high, whether or not there is an El Niño. Moreover, El Niño itself can turn out to be “weak”
 
 
For Prelims: La Nina, El Nino, Monsoons, Southwest Monsoons
For Mains:
1. What is the difference between El Nino and La Nino?. Discuss the impacts of these two on Indian Monsoon. ( 250 words)
 
 
Previous year Questions:
1. La Nina is suspected to have caused recent floods in Australia. How is La Nina different from El Nino? (UPSC 2011)

1. La Nina is characterised by unusually cold ocean temperature in the equatorial Indian Ocean whereas El Nino is characterised by unusually warm ocean temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
2. El Nino has an adverse effect on the south-west monsoon of India, but La Nina has no effect on the monsoon climate.

Which of the statement/s given above is/are correct?
A. 1 Only                 B. 2 Only               C. Both 1 and 2           D. Neither 1 Nor 2
Answer (D)
2. Consider the following Statements (MPSC 2017)
1. La Nina is a little girl
2. During the time of La Nina cold water in the Ocean rises to the Surface
3. La Nina strengthens the Indian Monsoon
4. During the time of El Nino, trade winds weaken, and warm water moves east in the Ocean
Which of the above-given statement is/ are true
A. 1 and 2            B. 1, 2 and 3       C. 2 and 3            D. All of the above
Answer (D)
 
Source: indianexpress

INDIA'S SECOND SPACE AGE

1. Background

  • The Space Age began in 1957 with the launch of satellite Sputnik 1 and in 1961, cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin became the world's first person in space.
  • Neil Armstrong made history by walking on the moon in 1969. The First Space Age became reality.
  • The Second Space Age is no precise date for its beginning, the contrast in today's space domain is stark.
  • Between the 1950s to 1991, a period dominated by the Cold War, 60 to 120 space launches took place annually and 93 per cent of these were by the United States and the erstwhile Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR) governments.
  • Three decades later, there are not only many more actors in the space scene, but a majority are also private companies.
  • Last year, there were 180 rocket/space launches, 61 by Elon Musk's Space X; 90 per cent of global space launches since 2020 are by and for the private sector.

2. India's space journey 

  • India's entry into the First Space Age in the 1960s. The first sounding rocket, a U.S.-supplied Nike Apache, with over 15, 000 employees and an annual budget between ₹ 14, 000 crore in recent years. Through these decades, it has sought to prioritise societal objectives and benefits.
  • Its first major project was Satellite Instructional Television Experiment (SITE) that involved leasing a U.S. satellite in 197576 for educational outreach across 2,400 villages covering five million people.
  • Satellite technology was a new mass communication tool. This led to the INSAT series in the 1980s, followed by GSAT, which provided the backbone for the country's telecommunication and broadcasting infrastructure.
  • This was followed by remote sensing capability development. The use of space-based imagery for weather forecasting, resource mapping of forests, and analysing agricultural yields, groundwater and watersheds gradually expanded to cover fisheries and urban management.
  • Following the Indian Remote Sensing Programme, this plan grew with the Oceansat and Cartosat series.
  • The field of satellite-aided navigation emerged later. It began with GAGAN, a joint project between ISRO and the Airports Authority of India, to augment Global Positioning System (GPS) coverage of the region, to improve air traffic management over Indian airspace.
  • This has now been expanded to a regional navigation satellite system called Navigation with Indian Constellation (NavIC).
  • In parallel came the development of satellite launch capabilities. Beginning with the SLV1 in the 1980s, it took a decade before ISRO developed the PSLV series that has become its workhorse with over 50 successful launches.

3. Space Potential

  • The origins of the Second Space Age can be traced to the Internet. In India, the process began accelerating as the 1990s saw the emergence of private TV channels and cable TV followed by direct-to-home transmissions.
  • The demand for satellite transponders and ground-based services exploded. Today, more than half the transponders beaming into Indian homes are on foreign satellites.
  • The last 15 years witnessed another transformation and this time India was in lockstep with the developed world.
  • The age of mobile telephony, followed by smartphones has shown the world what a data-hungry and data-rich society India is.
  • Broadband OTT and now 5G promise a double-digit annual growth in demand for satellite-based services.
  • In 2020, the global space economy was estimated at $450 billion, growing to $ 600 billion by 2025.
  • The Indian Space economy is estimated at $9.6 billion in 2020, which is expected to be $13 billion by 2025.
  • However, the potential is much greater with an enabling policy and regulatory environment.
  • The Indian space industry could easily exceed $60 billion by 2030, directly creating more than two lakh jobs.

4. India's space economy

  • The reason is that in terms of end-user revenue, only a fifth is generated by the government.
  • Media and entertainment account for 26 per cent of India's space economy, with consumer and retail services accounting for another 21 per cent.
  • In terms of space activities downstream activities such as satellite services and the associated ground segment are dominant accounting for over 70 per cent of India's space economy; upstream activities of satellite manufacturing and launch services contribute to the smaller share. A similar trend can be seen in developed countries. 
  • The reason is that India has been an early adopter of digital app-based services.
  • The growing role of the private sector is also evident in the numbers and ownership of satellites.

5. Satellites in Space

  • According to the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA), there are 8, 261 satellites in orbit, of which nearly 5, 000 are active.
  • Till 2010, about 60 to 100 satellites were launched annually. The pace has picked up in recent years.
  • In 2020, 1, 283 satellites were launched. Today, Starlink operates a constellation of over 3, 500 satellites and has a million paying customers.
  • Both Starlink and One Web (in which Airtel has a stake) project constellations of 40, 000 satellites each.
  • Jeff Bezos of Amazon has launched Project Kuiper to bring low-latency broadband connectivity around the globe.

5. Creating an enabling environment

  • The Indian Private sector is responding to the demands of the second space age. From less than a dozen space startups five years ago, there are over 100 today.
  •  The pace of investment is growing. From $3 million in 2018, it doubled in 2019 and crossed $65 million in 2021.
  • The sector is poised for takeoff as a transformative growth multiplier like the IT industry did for the national economy in the 1990s.
  • Today, ISRO manages four to five launches annually. It manages 53 operational satellites 21 for communication, 21 for earth observation, eight for navigation and the remaining as scientific experimental satellites (China operates 541).
  •  In addition, ISRO has missions such as Chandrayaan, Mangalyaan and Gaganyaan (manned space mission).
  • ISRO has always been an open organisation that has worked closely with the Indian Private Sector.
  • However, for some private sector companies, space technology-related work is a small part of their revenue stream. They were content as vendors, producing to defined specs and designs.
  • The startups are different. Their revenue stream depends on space-related activities and they need a different relationship with ISRO and the government.
  • ISRO today is the operator, user, service provider, licensor, rule maker, and incubator.
  • It has steered India through the First Space Age and needs to do what it can do best now with its resources and its high-quality manpower research.
  • In 2017, the government introduced the first draft Space Activities Bill in Parliament but it lapsed in 2019.
  • There has been talking about commercialising the PSLV and SSLV launch services and NewSpace India Limited (NSIL) was set up to replace Antrix.
  • The Indian National Space Promotion and Authorization Centre (INSPACe) was set up in 2020 as a single window clearance for the private sector.
  • However, whether it will emerge as the licensing authority or a regulator is unclear. An Indian Space Association (ISpA) was created as an industry association.
  • In recent years, a series of policy papers have been circulated for discussion a satcom/telecom policy, an earth observation policy and a foreign direct investment policy.
  • These have served a purpose. What is needed now is legislation (a space activities act).
  • This provides the legal grounding that policy papers lack; helps set up a regulator authority and creates an enabling environment for raising venture capital funding into the Indian space startup industry.
  • The window of opportunity for India to join the Second Space Age exists; it should not be lost.
For Prelims: ISRO, First Space Age, Second Space Age, Indian Space Association, Space X, NewSpace India Limited, Indian National Space Promotion and Authorization Centre, Chandrayaan, Mangalyaan and Gaganyaan, Navigation with Indian Constellation, 
For Mains: 
1. What is the Second Space Age? Discuss India's Second Space Age challenges and opportunities. (250 Words)
 
 
Previous Year Questions
 
1. In the context of space technology, what is "Bhuvan", recently in the news? (UPSC 2010)
A. A mini satellite, launched by ISRO for promoting the distance educa­tion in India
B. The name was given to the next Moon Impact Probe, Chandrayan-II
C. A geoportal of ISRO with 3-D imaging capabilities of India
D. A space telescope developed by India
Answer: C
 
2. Consider the following pairs: (UPSC 2014)
Spacecraft                       Purpose
1. Cassini-Huygens          Orbiting the Venus and transmitting data to the Earth
2. Messenger                    Mapping and investigating the Mercury
3. Voyager 1 and 2            Exploring the outer solar system
 
Select the correct answer using the code given below.
A. 1 only      B. 2 and 3 only       C. 1 and 3 only        D. 1, 2 and 3
 
Answer: B
 
Source: The Hindu

CHINA'S STANDARDISATION

 

1. Context

On April 2, 2023, the Chinese government announced it would “standardize” the names of 11 places in Arunachal Pradesh. The Ministry of Civil Affairs in Beijing published a list of 11 places along with a map showing the Indian State of Arunachal Pradesh as a part of China’s Tibet Autonomous Region.

2. What are the places on the list?

  • The Chinese Ministry of Civil Affairs notification announced 11 “place names for public use”, in Mandarin, Tibetan, and English (pinyin transliteration of the Chinese names).
  • These include five mountain peaks, two more populated areas, two land areas, and two rivers.
  • All of the 11 sites are on Indian territory, and the southernmost is close to Itanagar.
  • The Chinese government referred to the location of the sites as “Zangnan”, or “south Tibet”, which is how it refers to Arunachal Pradesh.

3. Why is China giving names to places that are in India?

  • China claims some 90,000 sq km of Arunachal Pradesh as its territory.
  • It calls the area “Zangnan” in the Chinese language and makes repeated references to “South Tibet”.
  • Chinese maps show Arunachal Pradesh as part of China, and sometimes parenthetically refer to it as “so-called Arunachal Pradesh”.
  • China makes periodic efforts to underline this unilateral claim to Indian territory.
  • Giving Chinese names to places in Arunachal Pradesh is part of that effort. 

4. How many times China has renamed places in Arunachal Pradesh?

  • This is the third time China is issuing names for places in Arunachal Pradesh, a gesture seen as provocative by India and one that has coincided with periods of strains in relations.
  • In 2017, the first list of “standardized” names was issued for six places in Arunachal, which was then seen as a retaliatory move after the Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, visited the State.
  • The second such list was issued in December 2021, more than a year into the crisis sparked by China’s multiple transgressions across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) starting in April 2020.
  • The second list coincided with a new border law passed by the Chinese government that called for various Chinese civilian and military agencies to take steps to “safeguard” Chinese territory, including through such administrative measures.
  • The second list had 15 places, including eight towns, four mountains, two rivers, and the Sela mountain pass. 

5. What is McMahon Line?

  • The disputed boundary in the Eastern Sector of the India-China border is over the McMahon Line.
  • Representatives of China, India, and Tibet in 1913-14 met in Shimla to settle the boundary between Tibet and India, and Tibet and China.
  • During the Shimla conference, Sir Henry McMahon, the then foreign secretary of British India, drew up the 550-mile (890 km) McMahon Line as the border between British India and Tibet.
Image Source: India Today

6. The dispute between India and China's  Eastern sector

  • The McMohan line moved British control substantially northwards. This agreement ceded Tawang and other areas to the imperial British Empire.
  • Though the Chinese representatives at the meeting initiated the agreement, they subsequently refused to accept it.
  • Subsequently, the Chinese government stated that it does not recognize the "Illegal McMohan Line.
  • China accuses India of occupying areas in Arunachal, which it calls part of Southern Tibet.
  • China claims territory to the south of the McMohan Line, lying in Arunachal Pradesh.
  • China also bases its claims on the historical ties that have existed between the monasteries in Tawang and Lhasa.

7. What is behind China's move?

  • As with the two previous cases, India rejected the Chinese announcement. Arunachal Pradesh is, has been, and will always be an integral and inalienable part of India.
  • More broadly, the moves from Beijing point to a hardening of its stand on territorial disputes, which are now seen less as matters to be resolved diplomatically and bilaterally but as questions of China's sovereignty.
  • Besides the renaming, the new border law as well as the new regulations from the State Council all underscore how under current leader Xi Jinping, the protection of national sovereignty and the territory has been mandated under various laws.
  • This has also driven more activity along the borders from local­level authorities, such as stepped-up programs to build new civilian settlements (including some that have come up
    on territory disputed by both Bhutan and India) as well as other border infrastructure.

8. What does China seek to gain from making these claims? 

  • It is a part of the Chinese strategy to assert its territorial claims over Indian territory.
  • As a part of this strategy, China routinely issues statements of outrage whenever an Indian dignitary visits Arunachal Pradesh.
  • It did so when the then Vice President Venkaiah Naidu went there to address the state Assembly in October 2021.
  • The first batch of renaming in 2017 had come days after the Dalai Lama visited Arunachal Pradesh.
  • Also, Chinese officials claim that standardization was necessary since all names used in southern Tibet were inherited through word-of-mouth for generations by minority ethnic groups.
  • Hence, these names reflect that China's proposal on the sovereignty claim of the region has a prominent historical, cultural, administrative, and jurisdictional.
  • Laying aggressive claims to territories based on alleged historical injustices done to China is part of Beijing's foreign policy playbook. The Claim on Taiwan is one such example.
  • Also, consistent efforts are being made by China to change the facts on the ground in several disputed islands in the south china sea.
For Prelims: Zangnan, or south Tibet, Arunachal Pradesh, Line of Actual Control (LAC), McMahon Line, and Bhutan.
For Mains: 1. In the wake of the recent renaming of some places in Arunachal Pradesh by China, India needs a comprehensive strategy to solve the border issues with the neighboring country". Discuss. (250 words).
 

Previous year Question

1. What is/are the recent tension between India and China highlighted in the newspaper? (TNPSC Group 1 2015)
A. China's proposed dam on Brahmaputra
B. PM's visit to Arunachal Pradesh
C. China recently tried to block an ADB loan
D. All of these
Answer: D
Source: The Hindu

POPULATION BOMB

 

1. Context

On March 27, 2023, Beniamino Callegari, associate professor at Kristiania University College, Oslo, and a member of the Earth4All modeling team, and Per Espen Stoknes, Earth4All project lead and director of the Centre for Sustainability at the BI Norwegian Business School, published their predictions about the world’s human population in the form of a report by the Earth4All Initiative.

2. Background

  • This comes five decades after reports in which some economists blamed, among other things, the planet’s expanding human population for its many problems.
  • The two researchers have revisited them and revised the original population predictions.
  • The effort is notable for how women’s reproductive rights and population control have emerged in contemporary political discourse, as well as the useful contradictions they strike with more recent reports pertaining to development policy.

3. What does the new report find?

  • In the new Earth4All Initiative report, the researchers set aside population-modelling approaches adopted by the UN, the Wittgenstein Centre (sponsored by the European Union), The Lancet, and integrated assessment models.
  • Instead, they modelled birth rates explicitly and causally as a function of GDP per person, which shows “a negative correlation between income and fertility rate”.
  • In this context, the per-capita GDP is a “proxy” for female education and socio-economic mobility, among other factors.
  • Based on such modelling, the researchers advanced two scenarios.
  • The first, called “Too Little, Too Late”, predicted that if economic development continues as it has in the last five decades, the world’s population would peak at 8.6 billion in 2050, roughly 25 years from now, and decline to 7 billion by 2100.
  • In the second scenario, called “The Giant Leap”, the researchers concluded that the population will peak at 8.5 billion by 2040-a decade

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