2. Reassessing IHME Population Projections

• Recalling the notable misalignment in early COVID-19 projections, a recent scrutiny of population forecasts by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) prompts a cautious reevaluation. IHME's projections for India's population, indicating a significant decline by the end of the century, warrant careful examination given the potential discrepancies in underlying assumptions.
• The IHME model projects an average fertility rate of 1.29 children per woman in India by 2100, a figure notably lower than replacement levels. This stark prediction contrasts with projections for the United States and France, raising questions about the validity of the assumptions underpinning such forecasts.
• Until 2050, IHME's population estimates for India closely mirror those of the United Nations. However, a notable divergence emerges in the latter half of the century, with IHME projecting a significantly smaller population by 2100 compared to UN estimates.
• IHME's reliance on National Family Health Survey (NFHS) data, particularly regarding contraceptive usage, is called into question. Research suggests potential inaccuracies in estimating contraceptive prevalence, which may lead to underestimated unmet contraceptive needs and consequently, implausibly low fertility projections for 2100.
• In light of these observations, a critical review of IHME's population projections becomes imperative, urging a more nuanced understanding of the underlying data and assumptions shaping future demographic trajectories.

3. Unraveling India's Fertility Decline

• India's demographic landscape has undergone a profound shift, marked by a significant decline in fertility rates.
• From nearly six children per woman in the 1950s, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has plummeted to 2.2 today.
• Notably, the coercive family planning measures during the Emergency era only marginally impacted fertility, showcasing a mere 17% decrease from 1960 to 1980.
• However, the period between 1992 and 2015 witnessed a substantial 35% decline, with 18 States and Union Territories now boasting TFRs below the replacement level of 2.
• While the success of family planning programs may seem a logical explanation, the contemporary discourse in Indian policy circles has shifted away from prioritizing such initiatives.
• The era between 1975 and 1994 witnessed the implementation of coercive measures, where family planning workers faced targets for sterilizations, condom distribution, and intrauterine device (IUD) insertions.
• However, the abandonment of these targets post the Cairo conference on Population and Development in 1994 signified a shift away from coercive tactics.
• In the absence of coercive measures, policies aimed at incentivizing smaller families and penalizing larger ones have yielded mixed results.
• While punitive measures such as the denial of maternity leave for third and subsequent births, limitations on maternity benefits, and disqualification from local body elections for individuals with large families have been in place, their practical enforcement has been lacking. 

4. The Rise of Aspirational Parenthood

• In dissecting the shift away from large family ideals in India, it becomes evident that the socioeconomic landscape, particularly since the 1990s, has been a pivotal force.
• With agriculture's diminishing role in the economy and a marked increase in school and college enrollment, coupled with lucrative opportunities in government, multinational corporations, and software services, individuals have witnessed unprecedented financial prospects.
• Consequently, this transformation has prompted a reevaluation of family-building strategies among parents.
• Traditionally, the agrarian mindset equated more children with additional labor for farming tasks. However, the emergence of aspirational parenting has redefined this narrative.
• Rather than viewing children solely as labor assets, modern parents see their offspring as potential beneficiaries of education and upward mobility.
• Enrollment in coaching classes, once perceived as a pathway to academic success, now embodies the aspirations of parents keen on securing a prosperous future for their children.
• Contrary to the Western narrative of declining fertility linked to a retreat from familial commitments, Indian parents showcase heightened dedication to family values by opting for smaller family sizes.
• Research conducted in collaboration with demographer Alaka Basu at Cornell University underscores this phenomenon.
• Comparing families of similar income levels, our findings reveal that both small and large families exhibit comparable leisure activities, women's workforce participation, and material possessions.
• However, smaller families distinguish themselves by channeling greater financial resources into their children's education, epitomizing a shift towards child-centric aspirations rather than self-centric motives driving fertility decline.

5. Addressing India's Fertility Shift

• Paradoxically, despite the evident decline in fertility rates across Indian society, public discourse remains entrenched in the rhetoric of the 1970s, often fixating on perceived high fertility rates, particularly in regions like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, or among specific demographics such as women with limited education or the Muslim community. This outdated narrative occasionally prompts policymakers to advocate for measures aimed at coercing these purportedly uninformed or indifferent parents into reducing family sizes.
• Demographic indicators, however, signal the onset of an aspirational revolution. To expedite the decline in fertility rates, it is imperative to align policy discourse with this evolving reality.
• Rather than enforcing antiquated measures, the focus should shift towards bolstering the healthcare and family welfare infrastructure. This entails providing comprehensive contraception and sexual and reproductive health services, empowering individuals to make informed choices regarding the size of their families.

INDIA'S PHARMA SECTOR

India plays a significant role in the global pharmaceutical market, being one of the largest producers and exporters of generic drugs worldwide.

Here are some key aspects of India's role in the pharma market:

• Generic Drugs Production: India is renowned for its robust generic drug manufacturing industry. Indian pharmaceutical companies produce a vast array of generic medicines, including antibiotics, antiretrovirals, cardiovascular drugs, and more. These generic drugs are often more affordable alternatives to brand-name medications, making them accessible to a broad population, both domestically and internationally.

• Drug Export: India is a major exporter of pharmaceutical products to various countries across the globe. Its pharmaceutical exports contribute significantly to the global supply chain, providing essential medicines to both developed and developing nations.

• API Production: India is a leading producer of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs), the essential components of pharmaceutical formulations. Indian API manufacturers supply APIs not only for domestic drug production but also for global pharmaceutical companies.

• Contract Manufacturing and Research: India has emerged as a hub for contract manufacturing and research services in the pharmaceutical sector. Many multinational pharmaceutical companies outsource their manufacturing activities to Indian firms due to cost-effectiveness and quality standards.

• Research and Development: Indian pharmaceutical companies are increasingly investing in research and development (R&D) activities to develop new drugs and improve existing ones. India's expertise in drug discovery and development is growing, with a focus on areas such as biotechnology, biosimilars, and specialty pharmaceuticals.

• Regulatory Compliance: India's pharmaceutical industry adheres to stringent regulatory standards to ensure the safety, efficacy, and quality of pharmaceutical products. Regulatory bodies like the Central Drugs Standard Control Organization (CDSCO) oversee the approval and regulation of pharmaceuticals in India

3. India's Generic Medicine Impact

 

• According to industry insiders, India holds a crucial position in the global generic medicine market, and any alteration in policy directly impacts manufacturers and importers.
• They emphasize the significance of centralizing the licensing authority, citing a study by the Department of Pharmaceuticals. This study underscores the need for India to prepare for the upcoming expiration of patents on drugs valued at $251 billion in the next decade.
• The study predicts significant transformations in India's pharmaceutical sector between 2022 and 2030 as numerous drugs are anticipated to lose patent protection, opening the door for generic products.
• The expiration of patents presents a promising opportunity for the Indian generic drug market to expand further.
• In response to ongoing developments, India has intensified its focus on self-reliance, making it essential to identify these drugs in advance and devise strategies to facilitate their timely entry into the market by promoting generic drug manufacturing

4. Challenges

• India faces various challenges, such as addressing intellectual property rights and the lack of research and development.
• The study emphasizes the importance of comprehending political, economic, socio-cultural, technological, environmental, and legal factors for evaluating opportunities and challenges in India's pharmaceutical market.
• It highlights that adapting to changes in these external factors, navigating regulatory requirements, harnessing technological advancements, and aligning strategies with the evolving needs of the pharmaceutical industry are crucial for success in the global market.
• The centralization of NOCs is seen as a positive step as it will formalize the Indian pharmaceutical industry. This move is expected to enhance the efficiency of the overall process and boost pharmaceutical exports to key international markets.
• It is anticipated to bring uniformity in protocols and contribute to achieving the target of reaching $450 billion by 2047

5. What about the quality of manufacturing?

 

• The Indian government has taken action against 18 drug companies due to substandard manufacturing practices. It was reported that licenses of more than 10 pharmaceutical companies were revoked following inspections of 76 drug firms across 20 states last March.
• Additionally, notices were issued to 26 companies for failing to comply with good manufacturing processes. Despite the Indian pharmaceutical industry boasting approximately 10,500 companies and witnessing a significant increase in drug exports over the past decade, recent scandals have tarnished its reputation.
• These scandals include a World Health Organization investigation into four contaminated cough syrups, which led to acute kidney injuries and the deaths of 66 children in the Republic of the Gambia last year.
• In an apparent effort to enhance oversight, the Central Drugs Standard Control Organization (CDSCO) issued a new directive stating that pharmaceutical companies must obtain No Objection Certificates (NOCs) from CDSCO zonal offices online before applying for manufacturing licenses from state/union territory drug regulators.
• Rajeev Singh Raghuvanshi, the Drugs Controller General of India, stated that this decision aims to streamline the application process.
• In 2018, CDSCO authorized state and union territory drug licensing authorities to grant permissions for the export of specific drugs. Under the new order, local regulators are required to provide CDSCO with details of all approvals granted from August 2018 to May 2024

6. Way Forward

 

The Central government’s advisory group on drugs had earlier this year noted that getting NOCs from local drug regulators for pharmaceutical products is a tedious process, leading to delays. Says Harish K. Jain, president, Federation of Pharma Entrepreneurs: “We don’t anticipate any major impact as far as costing or delays with this latest move. Export of goods is on the Union List. Also, the central authority was always the Central government; the power to hand out licences for export of drugs was delegated to States a few years ago.”

 

Source: The Hindu

RULES ON CONTESTING IN INDIAN ELECTIONS

 

 

 

1. Context

 

When Congress leader Rahul Gandhi announced that he would contest from Rae Bareli in Uttar Pradesh, questions were raised on why he took the decision after the Kerala election was over — he is a contestant from Wayanad too. According to the Representation of the People Act (RPA), 1951, a candidate is permitted to contest an election from up to two constituencies, but he or she can hold only one seat at a time if elected from both

 

2.In How many seats can a Candidate contest?

• An amendment in 1996 introduced sub-section 33 (7) of the RPA, permitting a candidate to run for elections from two seats, removing the previous restriction on the number of constituencies a candidate could contest from.
• However, Section 70 of the same Act specifies that a candidate can only hold one seat at a time, regardless of winning from multiple seats.
• Therefore, if a candidate wins from two seats, a by-election is required for the seat they vacate.
• According to former Chief Election Commissioner N. Gopalaswami, opposition to candidates contesting from multiple seats primarily stems from the need for numerous by-elections after the polls.
• Both the Election Commission of India and the Law Commission have recommended further amendments to the RPA Act to restrict candidates to contesting from only one seat, considering that one individual cannot hold two seats simultaneously.
• However, Mr. Gopalaswami noted the challenge in achieving this change, as "no politician would like to reduce it to one from two, and laws are made by parliamentarians."
• Additionally, to contest in Assembly elections, an individual must be a voter in a specific State. However, for Lok Sabha elections, a person can be a registered voter in any constituency across the country. If someone is a registered voter in any constituency, they are eligible to contest from any seat in India, except in Assam, Lakshadweep, and Sikkim

 

What is the minimum age to contest? In India, the minimum age requirement for participating in Lok Sabha and Assembly elections is 25 years, whereas individuals can only become members of the Rajya Sabha or State Legislative Council at the age of 30. There is no mandatory educational qualification necessary for contesting general elections in the country. However, candidates must be Indian citizens, registered voters in a constituency within India, and should not have been convicted of any offense punishable by imprisonment exceeding two years

 

3. On What Grounds Candidate can be Disqualified?

 

• An individual shall be ineligible for selection or membership in either House if they hold any office of profit under the Government of India or any State government; if they have been declared of unsound mind by a competent court; if they are an undischarged insolvent; or if they are not a citizen of India or have voluntarily acquired citizenship of another country.
• According to the RPA Act, a person convicted of any offence and sentenced to imprisonment for two years or more is disqualified from contesting elections.
• Even if such an individual is released on bail pending appeal, they remain disqualified from contesting an election after conviction and while their appeal is pending.
• In cases involving certain serious offences, disqualification may occur upon conviction, irrespective of the length of the sentence

4. Changes done Over a Period of Time

• The Election Commission of India (ECI) has revised the regulations concerning political party funding during elections.
• The updated rules now entail a reduction in the cash donation threshold from ₹20,000 to ₹2,000.
• Additionally, the Electoral Bond Scheme, which permitted anonymous contributions to curtail the use of cash, was invalidated by the Supreme Court in 2024, subsequent to its notification in January 2018.
• In preparation for the 2024 elections, the ECI has imposed a prohibition on the transportation of cash in bank vehicles after sunset.
• Moreover, the Commission is actively overseeing non-scheduled chartered flights to deter the movement of cash, liquor, and drugs. Jagdeep Chokkar, a founding member of ADR, notes that despite numerous interventions, the intended impact has not materialized as political parties have managed to find ways to bypass these measures

5. Way Forward

That falls under criminal law which are enacted by politicians themselves,” he says. But he adds that the presence of central paramilitary forces has been able to put a stop to practices like booth-capturing

 

Source: The Hindu

ELECTRONIC PROVIDENT FUND (EPF)

 

 

 

1. Context

The Karnataka High Court recently struck down a 15-year-old amendment to the law which permits the incorporation of foreign workers in the Employees’ Provident Fund (EPF). Accordingly, it quashed the special provisions for international workers under paragraph 83 of the Employees’ Provident Funds Scheme, 1952 (EPF Scheme) and paragraph 43A of the Employees’ Pension Scheme, 1995 (EP Scheme) for being “unconstitutional and arbitrary.”

 

2.What are EPF benefits for foreign workers?

 

• The Employees’ Provident Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions Act of 1952, a cornerstone of India's social security framework, oversees three key schemes: the EPF Scheme, the EP Scheme, and the Employees’ Deposit-Linked Insurance Scheme of 1976.
• Administration falls under the purview of the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO), a statutory body. Entities with a workforce of at least 20 individuals must enroll with the EPFO and contribute to the Provident Fund (PF) for eligible staff. Amendments made in 2008 expanded the Act's coverage to include international workers or expatriates.
• These workers, employed in India for a minimum of six months, are obliged to make PF contributions amounting to 12% of their total salary, matched by a corresponding contribution from their employer.
• Unlike their local counterparts, international workers are not bound by the ₹15,000 per month wage ceiling for PF benefits.
• Withdrawal of PF savings for international workers in India is permissible upon reaching 58 years of age, retirement due to permanent incapacity, or as per terms outlined in existing Social Security Agreements (SSAs)

3. What are Social Security Agreements?

 

• These are agreements between two parties established to safeguard the social security rights of workers assigned to work in a foreign nation. Indian workers sent abroad by their Indian employers typically continue to contribute to social security in India according to local regulations.
• They might also need to contribute to the social security system of the host country. However, due to limitations on withdrawals and conditions regarding their length of stay, such employees seldom receive benefits from contributions to the Provident Fund (PF) made outside India.
• Consequently, Social Security Agreements (SSAs) are established to prevent this dual coverage, wherein individuals are covered by both the social security laws of their home country and the country they are working in. India currently has SSAs with 21 countries

4. Court Rulings

 

• The court emphasized that the primary objective of the 1952 Act was to provide retirement benefits as an alternative to pensions for industrial workers. However, it clarified that the legislation was never intended to universally grant Provident Fund (PF) benefits to employees regardless of their salary levels.
• "The EPF & MP Act (1952 Act) was enacted with the intention of ensuring that those with lower incomes receive retirement benefits, and it cannot be argued that employees earning substantial salaries should also receive benefits under this law," the Court stated.
• Justice K.S. Hemalekha highlighted the discrepancy where an Indian employee working in a foreign country with a Social Security Agreement (SSA) with India continues to contribute to the PF based on a modest amount of ₹15,000, while a foreign worker is required to contribute to the PF based on their entire salary, despite both being international workers.
• Considering this inequality unconstitutional, she remarked, "The Government of India fails to justify any connection with the intended goal; paragraph 83 clearly discriminates between international workers of Indian origin and foreign origin, thereby violating Article 14 of the Constitution of India."
• Dismissing the government's argument that special benefits were provided to international workers due to existing international obligations, the judge argued, "There is no logical basis for this differentiation, nor is there reciprocity that mandates the classification of foreign employees from non-SSA countries as international workers.
• The respondents have not indicated whether Indian employees working in non-SSA countries are required to contribute their entire salary without any statutory limit towards the PF of that country.
• Without parity and reciprocity, there is no justification for demanding contributions based on the entire salary of a foreign employee from a non-SSA country.

5.Way forward

 

India should consider introducing amendments to ensure that expats are treated at par with domestic workers with respect to provident fund benefits to attract foreign investments. Highlighting that the ruling is also likely to have an impact on India’s existing SSAs with other countries, she added, “If the Karnataka High Court judgment is upheld by the Supreme Court, it remains to be seen what amendments it [India] will bring about in the law to continue the reciprocal arrangements enshrined in the SSAs

 

Source: The Hindu

 

EXOPLANETS

1. Context

The James Web Space Telescope (JWST) has detected evidence of an atmosphere around exoplanet 55 Cancri e, one of the most studied planets outside the solar system.

2. Key Points

• Located just 41 light-years away, the planet orbits very close to a red dwarf star and completes a full orbit in just two days.
• Researchers hope that in the coming years, owing to the Webb telescope’s advanced capabilities, they will be able to detect more Earth-sized planets.
• So far, most of the discovered exoplanets are similar to Jupiter as Earth-sized planets are much smaller in size and harder to discover with older telescopes.

3. About exoplanets

• Exoplanets are planets that orbit other stars and are beyond our solar system.
• According to NASA, to date, more than 5,000 exoplanets have been discovered.
• Scientists believe that there are more planets than stars as each star has at least one planet orbiting it.
• Exoplanets come in a host of different sizes. They can be gas giants bigger than Jupiter or as small and rocky as Earth.
• They are also known to have different kinds of temperatures boiling hot to freezing cold.

 

Image Source:European space agency (ESA)

4. Studying exoplanets

• Studying exoplanets not only broadens our understanding of other solar systems but also helps us piece together information about our own planetary system and origin.
• However, the most compelling reason to learn about them is to find the answer to one of the most profound and thought-provoking questions of humankind are we alone in this universe?
• In a bid to understand the characteristics of an exoplanet, researchers look for its mass and diameter along with determining if it is solid or gaseous or even has water vapour in the atmosphere.
• Another important element of the study is finding out the distance between an exoplanet and its host star.
• This helps scientists determine if a discovered world is habitable or not.
• If an exoplanet is too close to the star, it might be too hot to sustain liquid water.
• If it’s too far, it might only have frozen water.
• When a planet is at a distance that enables it to have liquid water, it is said to be in the “Goldilocks zone”.
• With the launch of the Webb telescope, scientists believe that they would now be able to better study exoplanets as it is the only telescope that is capable of characterising the atmospheres of Earth-sized planets orbiting distant stars.

Webb is sensitive enough to detect a range of molecules in LHS 475 b’s atmosphere, but the researchers are yet to make definitive conclusions. In fact, it is even possible that the planet has no atmosphere.

5. Discovery of exoplanets 

• Discovering exoplanets is quite tough as they are small and hard to spot around their bright host stars.
• Scientists rely on indirect methods, such as the transit method, which is “measuring the dimming of a star that happens to have a planet pass in front of it”.

6. Red dwarf stars

• As mentioned before, the newly discovered exoplanet orbits around a red dwarf star.
• Such types of stars are the most common and smallest in the universe.
• As they don’t radiate much light, it’s very tough to detect them with the naked eye from
  Earth.
• However, as red dwarfs are dimmer than other stars, it is easier to find exoplanets that surround them.
• Therefore, red dwarfs are a popular target for planet hunting.

For Prelims & Mains

For Prelims: Exoplanets, NASA, Earth, hotstar, red drawft stars, LHS 475 b, Goldilocks zone, James Webb Space Telescope,  For Mains: 1. What are exoplanets and discuss the need to studying exoplanets (250 Words)

 

Source: The Indian Express