Recently, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to visit Kashmir marking his first visit to the region since the revocation of Article 370 in 2019. This visit follows his recent trip to Jammu, during which he announced various development projects, distributed appointment letters to 1,500 new government recruits, inaugurated an IIT campus and launched the region's inaugural electric train. In Srinagar, the Prime Minister plans to address a public meeting, likely making additional announcements in anticipation of upcoming elections.

The recent government actions in Jammu & Kashmir have set the stage for potential electoral gains, particularly in the Kashmir Valley. Notably, the government's moves in February 2024, and previously in 2022, are seen as crucial steps toward securing the party's first Lok Sabha seat in the valley, specifically in the Anantnag constituency of south Kashmir.

The passage of the Constitution (Jammu and Kashmir) Scheduled Tribes Order (Amendment) Bill, 2024 by the Lok Sabha on February 6, followed by its approval in the Rajya Sabha three days later, underscores the government's efforts to address regional dynamics and pave the way for increased political representation and engagement in Jammu & Kashmir.

The Constitution (Jammu and Kashmir) Scheduled Tribes Order (Amendment) Bill, 2024, also referred to as the J&K ST Amendment Bill, is a piece of legislation passed by the Indian Parliament in February 2024.  Before this amendment, there were 12 existing ST communities in J&K. The Pahari community had been seeking ST status for several years, but their requests were previously rejected.

It aims to include four communities - Pahari, Gadda Brahmin, Koli, and Paddari - in the list of Scheduled Tribes (STs) in the Union Territory (UT) of Jammu and Kashmir.

• The inclusion of these four communities in the ST category is expected to provide them with various benefits, including reservations in education and government jobs.
• The bill has been met with protests from the Gujjar-Bakerwal community, who were the most dominant ST group in J&K before the amendment. They argue that Paharis are not a homogenous tribe and already benefit from other existing quotas.

3. Amendment Sparks Community Protests

• An amendment expanding the list of Scheduled Tribes (ST) in Jammu & Kashmir has ignited protests from the Gujjar-Bakerwal Muslim community. The amendment includes four new groups, including the Pahari community, alongside the existing dominant Gujjar-Bakerwal group.
• The Gujjars argue that Paharis cannot be considered a separate tribe, as they encompass various Hindu and Muslim castes, including forward/upper castes, Other Backward Classes, and Scheduled Castes. Despite their protests, which highlight the social, economic, and educational advancements of Paharis, the amendment proceeded.
• The demand for ST status by the Pahari community dates back to 1989, repeatedly rejected until recent years. The BJP, particularly after the revocation of Article 370 in 2019, actively pursued this agenda. Within six months of the revocation, a jobs quota for Paharis was announced, followed by the establishment of the Jammu & Kashmir Socially and Educationally Backward Classes Commission in 2020, which recommended their inclusion as ST.
• The recommendation gained momentum during Union Home Minister Amit Shah's visit to J&K in October 2022, where he assured Paharis of their impending inclusion. Subsequently, the National Commission for Scheduled Tribes approved the recommendation.
• However, the enactment of the Bill faced resistance from the Gujjar community, leading to large-scale protests and disruptions during the winter 2023 session. To prevent further unrest, the government strategically delayed listing the matter for discussion and took preemptive measures, such as suspending internet services in affected areas.
• The amendment has thus sparked contentious debates and community tensions, highlighting the complexities of identity, representation, and political dynamics in Jammu & Kashmir.

4. Redrawing Boundaries and Reshaping Political Dynamics

• In a significant move, the Jammu & Kashmir Delimitation Commission, whose recommendations were accepted by the government in May 2022, redrew the electoral map of the Union Territory. This included the creation of seven new Assembly constituencies, six in Jammu and one in Kashmir, bringing the total to 90.
• Notably, nine seats were reserved for Scheduled Tribes (STs) for the first time in J&K's political history.
• The introduction of reserved ST seats marked a significant shift, particularly for the Gujjar community, which had been the predominant ST group in Rajouri-Poonch until recently. However, the joy among Gujjars was short-lived as Paharis celebrated the assurance of inclusion by Union Home Minister Amit Shah.
• Paharis, constituting 7% of J&K's population, emerged as the dominant ST group in Rajouri-Poonch, reflecting a shift in the tribal demographics.
• The Delimitation Commission's decisions also reshaped parliamentary constituencies, notably by merging Poonch and Rajouri into the Anantnag constituency in South Kashmir. This move, initially puzzling, gained clarity in light of the newly recognized tribal identity of the two districts.
• The reconfiguration of constituencies, including the creation of the Anantnag-Rajouri constituency, reflects the BJP's strategic manoeuvring to establish a foothold in Kashmir.
• Moreover, the Commission's decision to break through natural geographic divisions, such as the Pir Panjal mountain range, and realign constituency boundaries underscores the complexities of political representation in Jammu & Kashmir.
• As the region prepares for upcoming elections, these changes are poised to reshape political dynamics and representation, signalling a significant shift in the political landscape of J&K.

5. Calculations and Challenges

• The newly formed Anantnag-Rajouri constituency involves careful consideration of voter demographics, historical trends, and recent developments.
• With approximately 19 lakh voters, including a significant Kashmiri Muslim population of around 10 lakh in the Anantnag region, the party aims to capitalize on low voter turnout, often influenced by security concerns and regional party divisions.
• The constituency also comprises around 40,000 Kashmiri Pandit migrant voters, whose participation remains uncertain due to security reasons. The Pahari community, numbering about 4.7 lakh, particularly those in the relatively safer Rajouri side, hoping for a high voter turnout despite internal religious divides. 
• The Gujjar-Bakerwal community constitutes over 4 lakh voters, including a significant presence in the Anantnag areas. Despite political reservations and legislative measures post-Article 370 revocation, the community's relationship has soured due to increased terrorist incidents in the Poonch-Rajouri area and recent custodial deaths, leading to apprehension among Gujjar-Bakerwal voters.
• Anantnag is a combination of tactics including persuasion, outreach, and coalition-building will likely be employed to maximize electoral success in the constituency. 

6. Conclusion

The political dynamics in Jammu and Kashmir are evolving rapidly, driven by legislative reforms, demographic changes, and shifting community allegiances. As the region prepares for upcoming elections, the outcomes will not only shape the future trajectory of governance but also have implications for broader issues of identity, representation, and socio-economic development in the region.