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EDITORIAL ANALYSIS: India’s demographic dividend as a time bomb

India’s demographic dividend as a time bomb

 
 
Source: The Hindu
 

For Prelims:

What:
India’s education system is facing a crisis of relevance and employability, as it fails to equip students with the skills needed for a rapidly evolving job market shaped by Artificial Intelligence (AI) and emerging technologies.

Why:

  • Current curricula are outdated and lag behind technological changes.

  • There is a widening skills gap between academic education and industry requirements.

  • High youth population presents a demographic dividend, but if unskilled, it could become a demographic liability.

Who:

  • Students (school and college level)

  • Educational institutions and universities

  • Government bodies: Ministry of Education, NITI Aayog, Skill India Mission

  • Employers and industries impacted by skill gaps

  • EdTech companies attempting to bridge skill gaps

For Mains:

GS II – Governance / Education Policy / Technology:

Context:
The AI revolution is reshaping the global workforce. India’s youth, constituting a significant demographic asset, are largely unprepared due to outdated education systems, misaligned curricula, lack of career guidance, and insufficient exposure to emerging technologies. Without urgent reforms, India risks losing its demographic advantage and facing social and economic challenges

Highlights of the Article

  • Mismatch between education and employment:

    • 40–50% of engineering graduates remain unemployed.

    • Only 43% of Indian graduates are considered job-ready (Mercer-Mettl Graduate Skills Index 2025).

    • High school students often have limited awareness of career options; ~93% know only 7 traditional career paths.

  • Impact of AI and automation:

    • McKinsey estimates ~70% of Indian jobs will face automation-related changes by 2030.

    • World Economic Forum predicts AI will create 170 million jobs but displace 92 million simultaneously.

  • Government initiatives:

    • Skill India Mission, PMKVY, PMKK, SANKALP, PMYY, Jan Shikshan Sansthan, and other schemes.

    • Many schemes underperform due to lack of integration and systemic inefficiencies.

  • Challenges in schooling and higher education:

    • Traditional, examination-centric curricula dominate.

    • Limited focus on career exploration, practical experience, and skill-based learning.

    • EdTech platforms often emphasize rote learning rather than employable skills.

  • Recommendations / Way forward:

    • Revamp curricula to integrate AI, emerging tech, and industry requirements.

    • Promote career guidance and exposure to diverse career paths from high school onwards.

    • Strengthen public-private partnerships to build a robust skill-development ecosystem.

    • Utilize AI and digital tools for voice-enabled, accessible learning and skill development.

    • Align Skill India and other initiatives to ensure measurable outcomes and accountability

 
UPSC EXAM NOTES ANALYSIS
 
 
1. Artificial Intelligence and Students learning
 
  • The future of work is being fundamentally transformed by emerging technologies, with Artificial Intelligence (AI) leading as the most disruptive force. AI is changing the way we think and operate, with research indicating that up to 70% of existing jobs worldwide could be affected, and around 30% of tasks in many occupations may become fully automated.
  • Simultaneously, a host of new roles in AI development and deployment are emerging. While AI rapidly reshapes the global job market, school and college curricula are updated only every three years, which is far too slow.
  • Without proactive measures to up-skill, cross-skill, and re-skill students, many will inevitably be left behind.
  • India’s so-called ‘demographic dividend’, often highlighted as a major growth driver, is increasingly at risk. With over 800 million people under 35, the country has one of the largest youth populations in the world.
  • Yet this potential advantage is threatened by a growing disconnect between education, practical skills, and employability. If unaddressed, this gap could turn India’s demographic asset into a demographic liability, creating a large-scale paradox.
  • Despite producing millions of graduates annually, a significant portion remain underemployed or unemployable. Contrary to common assumptions, this is not limited to social sciences or non-STEM fields.
  • Data from the past decade show that 40–50% of engineering graduates from Indian universities remain unplaced, reflecting a serious misalignment between academic training and industry expectations.
  • Increasing numbers of students pursue higher education, yet employers continue to report difficulty in finding candidates with the right skills. Recognizing this, 61% of higher education leaders now admit that curricula fail to keep pace with the rapidly evolving job market

 

2. Schools and Mismatched Skills

 

  • As the AI revolution gains momentum, India is confronting an intensifying skills gap. McKinsey estimates that by 2030, nearly 70% of Indian jobs could be affected by automation, signaling a potentially profound transformation in the workforce over the next five years. However, not all developments are negative.
  • The World Economic Forum forecasts that AI and other emerging technologies will generate 170 million new jobs by 2030, though over 92 million of these positions could simultaneously be displaced. This makes skill development an urgent national priority.
  • A major concern is the way Indian youth are entering the job market—many do so with outdated or irrelevant skills. This problem originates as early as high school, where students are largely unaware of the range of career opportunities available.
  • A 2022 Mindler Career Awareness Survey found that 93% of students in classes 8 to 12 know only about seven traditional career options, such as doctor, engineer, lawyer, or teacher, whereas the modern economy offers more than 20,000 career paths. Even more concerning, only 7% of students report receiving formal career guidance during their schooling.
  • This lack of awareness forces many capable students to pursue degrees that do not align with their interests or market demand. The India Skills Report 2024 indicates that over 65% of high school graduates enroll in courses misaligned with their abilities or aptitudes.
  • As a result, graduates often leave college ill-prepared for the evolving job market, aggravating India’s growing unemployment and underemployment crisis

 

3. Digital tools and Analog mindsets

 

  • Although most Indian students now have access to technology, thanks to cheaper smartphones and government efforts to establish computer and AI labs, schools largely continue to follow traditional, exam-focused curricula.
  • There is minimal emphasis on career exploration or cultivating job-ready skills, resulting in graduates who hold degrees but lack the practical experience employers require.
  • According to the Graduate Skills Index 2025 by Mercer-Mettl, only 43% of Indian graduates are considered job-ready—a figure that may even understate the problem, based on experiences with interns and fresh graduates.
  • EdTech platforms, while widely available, mainly concentrate on test preparation and rote learning, rather than skill development or career discovery. Platforms such as Coursera and Udemy have attempted to bridge this gap, but the certificates offered are increasingly commoditized.
  • Most school curricula remain disconnected from real-world employment needs, leaving students unprepared for modern challenges. Only a handful of state and central boards have introduced career readiness frameworks, and even fewer incorporate emerging career pathways into their syllabi.
  • On the positive side, the Indian government has launched initiatives to address the skills gap, notably the Skill India Mission, which aimed to train over 400 million people by 2022.
  • Despite substantial funding, the mission fell short of its target, due to multiple systemic challenges. In addition to Skill India, several other programs exist, such as PMKVY, PMKK, Jan Shikshan Sansthan, PMYY, SANKALP, and the Prime Minister’s Internship Scheme, among others.
  • What India requires is a cohesive strategy that aligns education and skill development with industry requirements. Research has been conducted to develop such a solution, and discussions are ongoing with NITI Aayog, the Association of Indian Universities (AIU), and the Ministry of Skill Development to implement it.
  • A collaborative approach involving the government, private sector, and educational institutions will be crucial to building a strong ecosystem for skill development

 

 4. Way Forward

 India’s goal of becoming a global digital leader depends on effectively combining technology, education, and employment into a unified national strategy. The country’s youth will either gain the skills needed to succeed in an AI-driven economy or risk being left behind. This issue goes beyond just education or jobs; it poses a threat to the foundations of the social contract itself. Historical examples, such as the student protests during the Mandal Commission era in 1990, demonstrate how youth unrest can escalate into violence, clashes with law enforcement, property damage, and even fatalities.

 

Mains Practice Question
 
  1. Critically examine the mismatch between India’s higher education system and industry requirements. How does this gap affect employability among Indian graduates, and what measures can the government take to bridge it?

  2. Discuss the role of career guidance and skill-awareness at the school level in shaping India’s future workforce. Suggest policy reforms to ensure students make informed career choices aligned with the emerging job market.

  3. Evaluate the effectiveness of current skill development schemes in India, including the Skill India Mission, PMKVY, and SANKALP. What systemic challenges have prevented them from achieving their intended outcomes?

  4. With the rise of Artificial Intelligence, nearly 70% of current jobs in India are at risk by 2030. Examine the implications of AI on employment and the measures required to prepare India’s youth for an AI-driven economy.

  5. India’s demographic dividend is often cited as an economic advantage. Analyze how the current education-skill gap threatens this dividend and suggest strategies to convert it into a productive asset

 


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