The global nuclear order is under strain
1. Formation of the Global Nuclear Order (GNO)
- The Global Nuclear Order (GNO) came into existence against the backdrop of the Cold War, where the United States and the Soviet Union led the Western and Socialist blocs, respectively.
- The genesis of the GNO can be traced back to the aftermath of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, a moment when the world teetered on the brink of a nuclear conflict.
- In the wake of this perilous situation, both U.S. President John F. Kennedy and Soviet General Secretary Nikita Khrushchev recognized two critical political realities.
- Firstly, as the foremost nuclear superpowers of the time, they acknowledged the imperative need for bilateral mechanisms. These mechanisms were essential to prevent tensions between the two nations from escalating to the catastrophic level of nuclear warfare.
- Secondly, there was a shared understanding that nuclear weapons posed inherent dangers, necessitating concerted efforts to curb their proliferation. This shared realization formed the basis for the establishment of the GNO, a framework designed to manage nuclear tensions and restrict the spread of these potentially devastating weapons.
The Cold War was a period of geopolitical tension between the United States and the Soviet Union, and their respective allies, the Western Bloc and the Eastern Bloc, which lasted from the mid-1940s to the early 1990s. It was characterized by:
- Ideological rivalry: The Cold War was primarily fueled by the ideological differences between capitalism and communism. The United States and its allies promoted democracy and free markets, while the Soviet Union and its allies advocated for a centralized, state-controlled economy.
- Arms race: Both superpowers engaged in a massive arms race, developing and stockpiling nuclear weapons and other advanced weaponry. This created a constant threat of nuclear war and heightened tensions between the two blocs.
- Proxy conflicts: The Cold War was not fought directly between the US and the USSR, but rather through proxy conflicts in various parts of the world, such as the Korean War, the Vietnam War, and the Soviet-Afghan War. These conflicts destabilized regions and caused widespread casualties.
- Espionage and propaganda: Both sides engaged in extensive espionage and propaganda campaigns to undermine the other and gain an advantage. This created an atmosphere of distrust and suspicion that further fueled the conflict.
Amidst the tension of the Cuban Missile Crisis, a clandestine communication channel between President Kennedy's brother, Robert Kennedy, and Soviet Ambassador Anatoly Dobrynin played a pivotal role in diffusing the crisis. Recognizing the need for more direct communication to avert nuclear catastrophe, the first significant bilateral measure emerged in the form of a hotline established in 1963. This hotline, later evolving into nuclear risk reduction centres, facilitated direct communication between leaders, mitigating the risk of misunderstandings that could lead to nuclear conflict.
Arms Control Negotiations
Following the establishment of the hotline, arms control negotiations took centre stage as the U.S. and U.S.S.R. endeavoured to navigate the complexities of their nuclear arms race. The objective was clear: to manage the arms race and maintain strategic stability. These negotiations reflected a shared commitment to preventing an unchecked proliferation of nuclear weapons and fostering a climate of mutual understanding and cooperation between the superpowers.
The Genesis of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
In 1965, multilateral negotiations commenced in Geneva, aiming to forge a treaty that would curtail the global spread of nuclear weapons. The culmination of these efforts materialized in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1968. While modest in its initial adoption with less than 60 signatories, the NPT has since grown to become a cornerstone of the global nuclear order, boasting 191 adherents today. This treaty stands as a testament to the international commitment to preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG)
In 1975, a significant development unfolded as India, having chosen not to sign the NPT, conducted an underground peaceful nuclear explosive (PNE) in 1974. In response, seven nations – the U.S., U.S.S.R, U.K., Canada, France, Japan, and West Germany – convened in London. Recognizing the need for stringent controls on the export of nuclear technology to prevent its misuse, the group transformed from the 'London Club' to the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). Comprising 48 countries today, the NSG diligently observes common guidelines for exporting nuclear and dual-use materials, equipment, and technologies. Despite close relations between the Soviet Union and India, marked by the Indo-Soviet Friendship Treaty of 1971, the USSR remained committed to upholding the principles of the Global Nuclear Order (GNO) and played a pivotal role as a founding member of the NSG.
4. Sustaining the Global Nuclear Order (GNO)
- The Global Nuclear Order (GNO) has exhibited resilience on two key fronts over its existence.
- First, the global taboo against the use of nuclear weapons, in place since 1945, has remarkably endured. While debates persist on the extent to which the U.S.-USSR arms control process contributed to preserving this taboo, it remains an undeniable fact that humanity has navigated 75 years of the nuclear age without catastrophic nuclear warfare.
- Second, the success of non-proliferation efforts stands out. Despite early forecasts predicting over 20 nations possessing nuclear weapons by the 1970s, only four countries India, Israel, North Korea, and Pakistan—have joined the nuclear club since 1968, when the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) was signed by the U.S., U.S.S.R., U.K., France, and China.
- The post-Cold War era sustained a shared commitment to non-proliferation, exemplified by collaborative efforts between Moscow and Washington to ensure the denuclearization of Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, which hosted Soviet nuclear weapons.
- However, the overall record of the GNO presents a mixed picture. Arms control, while not eliminating the U.S.-U.S.S.R. nuclear race, did contribute to managing the arms race. The arsenals grew substantially from 28,000 bombs in 1962 to over 65,000 in the early 1980s.
- Nonetheless, the dialogue and agreements during this period provided a semblance of control. Since the late 1980s, a significant reduction in the U.S. and Soviet arsenals, now below 12,000 bombs, can be partly attributed to the conclusion of the Cold War and the dissolution of the U.S.S.R.
- The foundation of 'strategic stability,' built on the concept of assured second-strike capability, was a shared notion between the two nuclear superpowers. Enforced by colossal arsenals, this understanding eliminated the incentive for a first strike, ensuring deterrence stability.
- Arms control negotiations, leading to strategic parity, contributed to a sense of arms race stability. Fail-safe communication links further provided stability in crisis management.
- However, these principles, developed in a bipolar world during the Cold War, face questioning in the contemporary geopolitical landscape.
- The changing dynamics and the emergence of new nuclear actors introduce uncertainties, challenging the once-sturdy foundations of nuclear deterrence.
5. Challenges to the Global Nuclear Order (GNO)
- The contemporary nuclear landscape marks a departure from the familiar bipolar structure of the Cold War era.
- The United States finds itself engaged in a nuanced rivalry with a resurgent China, determined to reclaim influence on regional and global fronts.
- Unlike the Cold War, this rivalry unfolds in an era where both economies are intricately interlinked, with China emerging as an economic and technological peer to the U.S.
- Beijing has expressed discontent over the U.S. naval presence in South China and East China Seas, escalating its naval and missile capabilities since the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis.
- Geopolitical shifts have strained longstanding treaties between the U.S. and Russia. The U.S. withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty in 2002 and, in 2019, exited the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, citing Russian violations. The New START, the remaining agreement, faces an uncertain future as it approaches expiration in 2026. Verification meetings were halted during the COVID-19 outbreak and were never resumed.
- Strategic stability talks initiated in 2021 witnessed a setback with the outbreak of the Ukraine war. Russia's recent deratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) has raised concerns about a potential resumption of nuclear testing. The once-defined parameters of strategic stability no longer hold sway.
- The Cold War consensus on non-proliferation has waned, coinciding with the ageing of nuclear weapons technology. Pragmatism has shaped U.S. policy, as seen in instances of overlooking Israel's nuclear pursuits in the 1960s-70s and China's assistance to Pakistan's nuclear program in the 1980s.
- The AUKUS agreement, involving Australia, the U.S., and the U.K., has further fueled concerns within the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) community.
- Historical dynamics in East Asia are resurfacing. South Korea, once considering a nuclear weapons program in the 1970s, is contemplating national nuclear deterrent capabilities.
- In Japan, a traditional stronghold of anti-nuclear sentiment, there's a perceptible shift, exemplified by the decision to double defence spending over the next five years.
- The U.S.'s nuclear umbrella, which solidified ties with European allies during the Cold War, faces scrutiny as domestic priorities prompt an inward turn.
- Questions about 'extended deterrence' guarantees loom, particularly in East Asia, where Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan possess the technical prowess for independent nuclear deterrents. U.S. pragmatism may eventually lead to the acknowledgement that bolstering independent nuclear deterrent capabilities could be a pragmatic response to the evolving rivalry with China, casting a shadow over the stability of the Global Nuclear Order.
6. Convergence Among Major Powers
Presentation as a Global Public Good
7. Concerns Related to Nuclear Powers
- Nuclear Proliferation: Nuclear proliferation refers to the spread of nuclear weapons to countries that do not already possess them. The proliferation of nuclear weapons raises the risk of their use, either intentionally or unintentionally, which can lead to catastrophic consequences. Efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons are a key aspect of global nuclear governance.
- Nuclear Testing: Nuclear testing involves the detonation of nuclear devices to assess their capabilities, effectiveness, and safety. Unregulated or secretive nuclear testing can heighten global tensions and contribute to an arms race. Additionally, underground tests can lead to environmental and health hazards.
- Arms Race: An arms race is a competition between nations to acquire more and better weapons than their adversaries. The nuclear arms race, especially among major countries, can escalate tensions and create an environment where the risk of accidental or intentional use of nuclear weapons is higher.
- Violation of Agreements: International agreements, such as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), aim to control the spread of nuclear weapons. Violations of such agreements by nuclear powers can erode global efforts to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons and undermine trust in international commitments.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Geopolitical tensions between nuclear-armed states can result from political, economic, or territorial disputes. These tensions raise the risk of nuclear weapons being used as a tool of coercion or in response to perceived threats, leading to a destabilized global security environment.
Testing Activities by Major Countries
- North Korea: North Korea's nuclear tests have raised significant international concerns, leading to sanctions and diplomatic efforts to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula.
- India and Pakistan: Both countries conducted nuclear tests in 1998, escalating tensions in the region. Ongoing conflicts and territorial disputes between them continue to pose concerns regarding the potential use of nuclear weapons.
- Iran: Concerns arise regarding Iran's nuclear activities, especially when there are suspicions of the development of nuclear weapons, leading to international negotiations and agreements to monitor and limit their nuclear program.
- United States and Russia: The U.S. and Russia, as major nuclear powers, face concerns related to their arsenals' size, modernization efforts, and adherence to arms control agreements.
- China: China's nuclear modernization and expansion have been closely watched, raising questions about the impact on global security dynamics.
8. Issues to be addressed
- The GNO's endurance is evident in the enduring taboo against the use of nuclear weapons and the relative success of non-proliferation efforts.
- Arms control negotiations, though not eliminating the nuclear race, contributed to managing arsenals and maintaining deterrence stability.
- Shifts in geopolitical dynamics, challenges to treaties, and evolving attitudes toward nuclear capabilities necessitate diplomatic innovation.
- Ensuring stability requires a reevaluation of global nuclear governance and cooperative efforts in the face of emerging complexities.
9. Conclusion
The GNO, born out of Cold War crises, faces unprecedented challenges in a multipolar world. The evolving rivalry between the U.S. and China shifts in geopolitical dynamics, and changing attitudes towards nuclear capabilities pose threats to the established order. Adapting to these challenges will require diplomatic innovation and a reevaluation of global nuclear governance to ensure stability in an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape.
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Mains Pratice Questions 1. Discuss the critical political realities that led to the formation of the Global Nuclear Order (GNO) in the aftermath of the Cuban Missile Crisis. (250 Words)
2. How did arms control negotiations contribute to managing the nuclear arms race between the U.S. and U.S.S.R. during the Cold War? (250 Words)
3. Explore the need for diplomatic innovation in response to the unprecedented challenges faced by the GNO in a multipolar world. (250 Words)
4. Discuss the scrutiny faced by the U.S.'s nuclear umbrella, particularly in East Asia, and the potential implications for regional stability. (250 Words)
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