The geopolitics in the Bangladesh election results

1. India-Bangladesh Relations

Economic Cooperation

•  Bangladesh stands as India's largest trading partner in the subcontinent, with robust economic ties.
• Initiatives such as transshipment and streamlined cargo movement through riverine and land routes enhance trade routes.
• India has provided duty-free quota-free access to Bangladesh under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) since 2011.
• Both nations launched a trade transaction in rupees, aiming to reduce reliance on the US dollar and strengthen regional currency and trade.

Defence Cooperation: With a shared border of 4096.7 km, India and Bangladesh maintain the longest land boundary. Regular joint military exercises, including Army (Exercise Sampriti) and Navy (Exercise Bongosagar), strengthen bilateral defense cooperation.

Energy and Connectivity: The India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline enhances energy cooperation by transporting High-Speed Diesel to Bangladesh. Cross-border projects like the Akhaura-Agartala rail link and Maitri Setu contribute to improved connectivity.

Multilateral Cooperation: Both nations actively participate in regional cooperation through forums like SAARC, BIMSTEC, and IORA.

Current Major Issues:

• Ongoing negotiations on river treaties, including the Teesta and Feni, remain a significant challenge.
• The issue of illegal migration strains resources and security, with concerns raised by the National Register of Citizens (NRC).
• Cross-border incidents involving drug smuggling, human trafficking, and poaching pose challenges to security.
•  Bangladesh's involvement in China's Belt and Road Initiative raises concerns about growing Chinese influence, impacting India's regional standing.

2. Bangladesh's Emerging Global Role

Once a marginal player, Bangladesh has emerged as a dynamic economic force in South Asia, boasting a robust 7.1% annual GDP growth in 2022. With an economy surpassing $400 billion and a population exceeding 165 million, the nation has become a focal point in the geopolitical landscape. Global powers such as China, India, Russia, and the United States are actively competing for influence in this strategically positioned country.

India's Strategic Interests

India, as Bangladesh's closest neighbor, shares profound historical, economic, social, and cultural ties. The bilateral trade volume nearing $15 billion annually underscores the depth of this relationship. Agreements spanning investment, counterterrorism, energy, and river water sharing further solidify the bond. For India, Bangladesh is a crucial partner in counterbalancing China's expanding regional economic and diplomatic influence, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Stability in Bangladesh serves India's strategic interests by providing a counterweight to potential instability emanating from neighboring countries like Pakistan and Afghanistan. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's swift congratulations to Sheikh Hasina after her electoral victory reaffirms the commitment to fortify the strategic partnership between the two nations.

U.S. Concerns and Balancing Acts

The United States, while recognizing Bangladesh's strategic importance, has been vocal about democratic shortcomings, human rights suppression, and curtailment of press freedom by the Bangladeshi government. Navigating a delicate balance, the U.S. aims to maintain robust ties with Bangladeshi authorities for core strategic interests while upholding democratic values. The U.S. Department of State's pre-electoral press statement reflected this dual approach, stating, "We are taking steps to impose visa restrictions on Bangladeshi individuals responsible for, or complicit in, undermining the democratic election process in Bangladesh."

China's Stance on Bangladesh's Elections

China, being Bangladesh's top trading partner with an annual bilateral trade surpassing $25 billion, maintains a non-interference policy, considering elections as the internal affairs of Bangladesh. Ambassador Yao Wen emphasized that Bangladesh understands the type of election it needs. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has played a significant role in Bangladesh's infrastructure development, with over $10 billion in financing for ports, bridges, highways, and other critical projects. Post-election, China congratulated the Awami League on its victory, aligning itself with the outcome.

Russia's Strategic Engagement

Russia, deeply engaged with Bangladesh through financing major infrastructure projects, including the Rooppur 2,400-megawatt nuclear power plant valued at over $12 billion, has a vested interest in the country's political landscape. The unique collaboration between Russia and India in transporting nuclear materials for the Rooppur project, circumventing U.S. sanctions, highlights the strategic importance Moscow places on its ties with Bangladesh. Before the elections, Russia had expressed concerns about external attempts to influence Bangladesh's internal political processes. Ambassador Alexander Mantytsky congratulated Sheikh Hasina on her electoral victory, reinforcing the close ties between Russia and Bangladesh.

3. Geopolitical Complexities for Bangladesh Post-Elections

The aftermath of the 2024 elections in Bangladesh has transformed into a geopolitical battleground, amplified by the nation's growing economic and strategic significance. The United States and its allies are faced with a delicate situation, navigating the challenges of conducting regular diplomatic affairs with Bangladesh amidst evolving geopolitical considerations.

Economic Challenges and Global Impact

The readymade garment industry, a major contributor to Bangladesh's foreign exchange earnings, stands as a focal point in this geopolitical equation. Potential restrictions imposed by the U.S. and European Union, major importers of Bangladesh's garments, could pose a significant threat to the country's economy. The uncertainty surrounding the extent of actions that might be taken adds complexity to the situation.

International Response and UN's Role

In the past, during the 2007 elections, the United Nations issued a stern warning in response to attempts at election manipulation. The warning hinted at a possible cessation of Bangladesh's involvement in peacekeeping operations. Whether the UN will take more substantial actions beyond criticism remains uncertain. The international community's response will play a crucial role in shaping Bangladesh's geopolitical standing.

Domestic Challenges and Economic Struggles

Beyond geopolitical concerns, Bangladesh faces internal challenges, including surging living costs that have sparked protests. The government grapples with soaring energy import prices, dwindling dollar reserves, and a weakening local currency. The International Monetary Fund has identified multiple shocks to Bangladesh's economy post-COVID-19 recovery, exacerbated by supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures from global events such as the Ukraine war.

Outlook for Sheikh Hasina's Government

In the coming months, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's government is expected to navigate a complex landscape, addressing both domestic and international challenges. Balancing the delicate interplay between a weakening economy and geopolitical considerations will require astute leadership and strategic decision-making.

4. Conclusion

As Bangladesh stands at the crossroads of economic rejuvenation and geopolitical challenges, strategic foresight, collaborative efforts, and inclusive policies will be pivotal. The nation's resilience in the face of evolving global dynamics depends on a multifaceted approach that ensures stability, economic growth, and the well-being of its citizens.