India’s Growing Neighbourhood Dilemmas

India faces several complex dilemmas in its immediate neighbourhood, arising from both political and structural factors. These dilemmas pose challenges to New Delhi's regional security and influence.

Political Challenges

•  The recent shift in the Maldivian government towards an anti-India stance exemplifies this challenge. New Delhi faces the possibility of similar developments in other countries like Bangladesh, where the upcoming elections could bring an ideologically anti-India government to power.
• While the Maldives' opposition is primarily instrumental, a future Khaleda Zia-led government in Bangladesh might harbour ideological opposition to India, further complicating relations.

Structural Challenges

• Beijing's growing economic and political clout in South Asia presents a significant challenge to India. The region's smaller states are increasingly entangled in China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and other projects, leading to greater economic dependence.
• China has been proactive in engaging with South Asian states, even when other international actors have withdrawn due to various concerns. This includes engagement with the Taliban-led Afghanistan, military-ruled Myanmar, and crisis-hit Sri Lanka. This fills the void left by others and strengthens China's regional presence.
• China's efforts to resolve border disputes with its neighbours, apart from India, like Bhutan, create an atmosphere of goodwill and cooperation, further solidifying its position in the region.

Potential Consequences

If India fails to implement effective strategies to address these challenges, it risks facing a geopolitically unfriendly South Asia. This could lead to:

• India's ability to shape regional security dynamics and economic partnerships could be significantly hampered.
• Growing anti-India sentiments and Chinese influence could pose potential security threats to India's borders and interests.
• China's economic dominance in the region could limit opportunities for Indian businesses and investments.

India's current struggles in its South Asian neighbourhood stem from a complex interplay of factors, primarily categorized into three sets of causes:

 Geopolitical Architecture

• The decreasing presence of the United States, once a constant in the region, has created a power vacuum that China has eagerly filled, leaving India at a disadvantage.
• China's rapid rise has positioned it as a "geopolitical buffer" for smaller South Asian nations, who are now adeptly playing the "China card" to assert their interests. While these nations are willing to practice "strategic autonomy" with India, they are hesitant to do so with China.
• In a region plagued by poverty and limited connectivity, it's natural for nations to gravitate towards powers that can cater to their material needs. With India's ability to fulfil these needs limited, China emerges as the preferred option.
• China's "no-frills, non-normative" approach has disrupted the India-centric norms that dominated South Asia for decades. This has created a "norms-free zone" for the first time in modern history, allowing states to prioritize their interests without adhering to specific norms.
• Historically, India enjoyed unparalleled primacy in the region. However, this position also comes with challenges, such as cultural, ethnic, and refugee issues. Conversely, China, as a non-resident power, benefits from the absence of such complications.

Policy Stance

• India's deep-seated preference for the status quo in dealing with domestic politics and power structures within the region limits its engagement with diverse actors and opposition leaders. This "one-track policy" often alienates potential allies and hinders effective engagement.
• Two key assumptions have guided India's South Asia policy, both of which have proven flawed. The first was the belief that South Asia, minus Pakistan, would be receptive to India's geopolitical initiatives. However, this approach hasn't yielded the desired results. The second assumption was that India's cultural and historical ties with its neighbours would provide an advantage in dealing with them. However, it's worth questioning whether this "culture-connect" has become a liability in the face of China's purely economic and strategic approach.

 Missed Opportunities

• India's failure to prioritize regional connectivity projects has allowed China to make significant inroads through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, further solidifying its influence.
• India's focus on dealing with established governments has led it to neglect the changing dynamics within these nations, resulting in missed opportunities to build relationships with emerging political actors.
• India's public diplomacy efforts in the region have not been as effective as those of China, leading to a narrative that is often more China-centric.

Addressing India's evolving geopolitical landscape requires a strategic shift in approach and proactive measures.

• India must acknowledge the fundamental changes in South Asia's balance of power. The era of Indian primacy has waned, and the emergence of China as a serious contender for regional dominance necessitates a realistic and pragmatic perspective. India should recognize that China shares the same neighbours and periphery, requiring a mental switch from outdated notions of Indian primacy.
• India should actively seek the involvement of friendly external actors in the region to counter the looming possibility of it becoming Sino-centric. Collaborative efforts with like-minded partners can contribute to regional stability and balance of power.
• Indian diplomacy needs to be flexible, engaging with a diverse array of actors within neighbouring countries. Instead of harbouring animosity towards anti-India elements, the focus should be on diminishing their antagonistic attitude. Diplomacy should extend beyond those in power, encompassing a broader spectrum of influential voices within the region.
• A critical issue that demands attention is the shortage of diplomats for India's diplomatic pursuits. With the nation's growing role in world affairs, the deficiency of personnel becomes a significant challenge. To navigate opportunities and crises effectively, India must address this shortage by investing in diplomatic resources and training to ensure a robust representation on the global stage.