THAILAND

2. Thailand election 2023

• The MFP emerged as the single largest party in the May 14 polls, garnering 151 seats in the 500-seat House of Representatives.
• Its 42-year-old leader Pita Limjaroenrat capitalised on his popularity among disillusioned young voters awaiting change after eight years of a military-backed government.
• MFP is the only party promising to reform the strict lesemajeste laws.
• Limjaroenrat is seen as the Prime Ministerial candidate if the coalition led by his party forms the government.
• MFP's main ally Pheu Thai, the populist party led by the billionaire family of the self-exiled former Premier Thaksin Shinawatra, emerged as the second biggest winner with 141 seats.
• Pheu Thai drew its support from the rural and urban working class, mainly in the north and northeast regions of Thailand.
• Other smaller parties in the pro-democracy alliance also managed to secure a significant share of votes. This election dealt a historic blow to Thailand's military-backed parties.

3. Thailand's political history

• The Siamese revolution marked the end of absolute monarchy in 1932.  Since then, Thailand's military has staged 13 coups.
• The confrontation between military generals and civilian politicians and activists has been at the root of continuing instability in the country.
• In 2001, Thailand got its first elected government which completed a four-year term, under police manturnedtelecom giant Thanksin, who rode a populist wave to victory with his Thais Love Thais party.
• However, the ensuing two decades were one of the most turbulent times in Thai Politics. Mr Thaksin's controversial war on drugs killed more than 2, 500 people.
• Additionally, scores of lives were lost through security force crackdowns in the Muslim-dominated south region of the country, igniting a new round of insurgency.
  While Thaksin did sweep the 2005 polls, his premiership was soon engulfed by a financial scandal and with subsequent protests, he was forced to call for fresh elections. 
• However, the leader got booted out months later in a bloodless coup.
• The period post-2006 is often described as Thailand's lost decade. Bangkok descended into a cycle of rallies and riots in 2008.
• In 2010, Thailand saw its most brutal crackdown on protestors, with more than 90 people supporters of Mr Thaksin called the Red Shirts killed by army fire in Bangkok.
• In 2011, Mr Thaksin's younger sister Yingluck became the country's first female Prime Minister but her administration too faced protests as she sought amnesty for her brother, still in self-exile.
• This led to the army carrying out a coup and declaring martial law in 2014 under the guise of bringing stability to a country in paralysis. The coup brought Mr Prayuth to power. 
• In 2017, the military introduced a new constitution allowing it to appoint a 250-member Senate which would play a role in selecting the Prime Minister.
• The military delayed a Parliamentary election, which was then held in 2019 and was initially seen as an exercise to transfer power from the military junta to an elected government. However, Mr Prayuth retained power after the election, resulting in renewed resentment.

4. Role of the monarchy

• Even after the end of the absolute monarchy, the Thai King retained godlike status in society and enormous influence in the government.
• Criticising or even talking about the state of the monarchy has long been a taboo in Southeast Asian Countries.
• The institution has historically been shielded from public criticism by strict lesemajeste laws.
• It has wielded strong political influence, putting its seal of approval on every military coup since the 1990s. The current monarch, Maha Vajiralongkorn, assumed the throne in 2016 after the death of his father, the revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej, who was the world's longest-reigning monarch at the time of his death.
• The junta gave the new king full control of the Crown Property Bureau, which manages the palace's roughly $ 30 billion worth of assets (Thailand is the richest existing monarchy).
• Last year, the King assumed direct control of two Army units.
• In 2020, in an unprecedented expression of discontent with the monarchy, widespread protests, led mainly by students spread throughout the country, asked for a separation of the King's assets and the Crown Property Bureau.
• They also wanted to cut the Palace's share in the national budget and ban the King from expressing his political views.
• The protestors also rejected the military's outsized influence in Mr Prayuth's government.
• These protests were a long-simmering reaction against Thailand's economic and political system, seen for decades as serving mainly three privileged groups the one per cent of the population owning two-thirds of all Thai assets, the financially privileged military which is intertwined with state enterprises and the world's richest monarchy.

5. Significance of the Recent Victory

• The current election is the first election since the major pro-democracy protests of 2020 and the second since the 2014 coup.
• The fact that Thai People came out in the record of 2020 and the second since the 2014 coup.
• The fact that Thai people came out in record numbers (a 75 per cent voter turnout) to vote for a young party promising historic reforms, rejecting influential military-backed parties is being considered a tectonic shift in the country's politics.
• The overwhelming support for the MFP, the only party pledging to change lesemajeste laws, also showed how the antimonarchy sentiment of 2020 translated into an electoral mandate.
• The support for the populist Pheu Thai Party also indicated conservative working-class fatigue and a population seeking an end to corruption and army influence.

6. Formation of the government

• The winner of the May 14 vote has not been assured the right to form the new government.
• A Joint session of the 500-seat House of Representatives and the 250-member Senate will be held in July to select the new prime Minister.
• This process is widely seen as undemocratic because the senators, appointed by the military rather than elected, vote along with Sunday's winning lawmakers.
• While Mr Limjaroenrat now claims that his alliance led by the MFP comprises 313 seats, he will need the backing of 376 legislators in the House to be voted in.
• Besides, the alliance will need to win over some of the 250 members of the conservative-leaning Senate, which is usually inclined to support military-backed parties.
• However, such an alliance, even if it forms a government, might face the threat of military intervention due to MFP's radical pledge to change the monarchy laws.
• There is also another alliance scenario, interestingly, without the largest vote-getting party.
• While the populist Pheu Thai party is making strong calls for a government led by MFP, analysts say it could also tie up with Bhumjaithai as well as the current ruling party, Palang Pracharat.
• In yet another potentially contentious scenario, the military-backed parties could form a minority government with the Senate's support, going against the will of the electorate.
• Meanwhile, if no compromise is reached, Thailand could also witness months of deadlock without a working government, since there is no constitutional deadline to form one.