FOSSIL FUELS

Dubai Consensus and Fossil Fuels

• The Dubai Consensus, a recent agreement, marks a significant departure by formally acknowledging that emissions from fossil fuels play a central role in driving global warming. Contrary to previous agreements that broadly addressed "greenhouse gas emissions," this marks the first explicit acknowledgement since 1995 that fossil fuels, including coal, oil, and gas, are the primary contributors to climate change.
• Despite the acknowledgement of the role of fossil fuels, particularly coal, in global warming, the Dubai Consensus does not signal an imminent end to the era of fossil fuels. Notably, it's crucial to recognize that the agreement falls short of providing specific timelines or commitments to phase out these fuels entirely.
• The Glasgow Climate Conference in 2021 marked a notable shift when countries, for the first time, agreed to address the impact of coal, the fossil fuel with the most substantial global warming footprint. However, the commitment made was to "phase down" coal rather than "phase out," and it lacked a specific termination year.
• The Dubai Consensus, by encompassing all fossil fuels, acknowledges the necessity of eliminating these energy sources to prevent a 1.5-degree Celsius rise in global average temperatures. However, the absence of concrete timelines reflects the challenges posed by varying energy needs and sources among nations.
• Large developing countries like India and China have raised objections to singling out coal, emphasizing its crucial role in lifting populations out of poverty and ensuring energy security. Both countries have substantial coal reserves, with India being a net importer. The consensus brings parity among fossil fuels, recognizing that all need eventual elimination.

4. Challenges in the Immediate Replacement of Fossil Fuels

The immediate replacement of fossil fuels poses substantial challenges, primarily due to the deeply entrenched and efficient infrastructure supporting the extraction, processing, and distribution of coal, oil, and gas. Over nearly two centuries of industrialization, a sophisticated system has evolved to convert these fossil fuels into electricity, petrol, diesel, and various other combustible products.

• Fossil fuel infrastructure is well-established, encompassing extraction, processing, and distribution networks for coal, oil, and gas.
• Power plants and refineries are optimized for the combustion of fossil fuels, contributing to the reliability and stability of energy supply.
• Fossil fuels offer on-demand availability, providing a consistent and controllable source of energy.
• Natural sources such as solar and wind, while cleaner, face challenges due to intermittency (nighttime for solar, variable wind patterns) and lack of effective energy storage infrastructure.
• Energy storage infrastructure for renewable sources is inadequate to handle the intermittency of solar and wind power, hindering their widespread adoption.
• Developing efficient and scalable energy storage solutions is crucial for transitioning away from fossil fuels.
• National plans, such as India's National Electricity Plan 2022-27, continue to include substantial additions to coal-fired capacity, highlighting the persistent reliance on fossil fuels.
• The infrastructure and investment in new coal-fired power plants reflect the ongoing challenges in immediately replacing fossil fuels.
• The Dubai Consensus acknowledges the necessity of transitioning away from fossil fuels but suggests the potential role of "transition fuels" to facilitate the process while ensuring energy security.
• While the consensus does not define these fuels, natural gas is considered a contender due to its lower emissions compared to coal. However, concerns exist regarding methane emissions associated with natural gas production.
• The COP deliberations face challenges due to the substantial presence of oil and gas manufacturers. Hosting a climate summit in a petro-state adds complexity to addressing the transition from fossil fuels.
• Natural gas, often considered a transition fuel, has advantages in reducing emissions when producing electricity and providing heat. However, criticisms argue that framing natural gas in this context may disproportionately benefit countries with existing production and distribution capabilities.

5. Dubai Consensus on Methane Emissions

• The Dubai Consensus underscores the critical importance of addressing methane emissions, recognizing methane as a potent greenhouse gas with significantly higher heat-trapping capabilities than carbon dioxide. The consensus acknowledges that substantial and accelerated reductions in non-carbon-dioxide emissions, particularly methane emissions, are essential to limit global warming and prevent average temperatures from exceeding a 1.5-degree Celsius increase by the end of the century.
• The agreement emphasizes the need for urgent action, setting a target for humanity to significantly reduce methane emissions by the year 2030. It aligns with the Global Methane Pledge, signed by nearly 150 countries at the COP-27 summit held in Egypt the previous year. The pledge commits countries to cut methane emissions by 30% of 2020 levels by the end of this decade.
• China and the United States, two major global players, have taken specific steps to address industrial methane emissions resulting from natural gas production. This collaborative effort signifies a shared commitment to tackling a significant source of methane release and contributing to the global reduction target.
• India, while resisting external pressure to cut methane emissions, has outlined plans to enhance the efficiency of its energy production processes. The nation contends that a substantial portion of its methane emissions originates from the agricultural sector. Despite resistance, India's commitment to making energy production more efficient aligns with the broader goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.