KYRGYZSTAN –TAJIKISTAN CONFLICT

CONTEXT

 For the past few weeks going confrontations by local communities and skirmishes between security forces on either side. In the Batken region, Osh families are moved out and relocated by the state.

 The first large-scale escalation of the conflict took place on April 28, 2021, when the two parties clashed over Tajikistan’s decision to install video surveillance near the Ak-Suu/Isfara River.

CAUSES OF DISPUTE

• One of the crucial points of disagreement is the map which should be used for demarcation purposes.
• Both countries share a 1000 km long border, a large part of which is disputed.
• There is a dispute over sharing water and land resources
• The agreement between the two over the utilization of Kyrgyz territory by the Tajik's livestock. The agreement was concluded as Tajik saw an increase in livestock but they have scarce grazing land

BACKGROUND OF THE ISSUE

CONTENTIOUS FACTORS

ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES

Incidents saw groups from either side planting trees in disputed areas.

FERGHANA VALLEY

• The Soviet delimitation of national borders in the Fergana Valley, along with land exchanges and land “loans” up to the very end of the Soviet Union, has produced a complex geography
•  Besides the 984-kilometre-long border, of which only 504 km are demarcated, Kyrgyzstan also hosts two Tajik exclaves, Vorukh and Kayragach.
• Both sides have disputed ownership over various territories since independence in 1991 using different Soviet maps and agreements as the basis for their claims

WATER ISSUE

• The collapse of the Soviet subsequently followed by the dissolution of land and water agreements and the creation of smaller independent multiple farms leading to an increase in water consumption.
• The reason for the conflict was the” Golovnoi Vodorazdel” (main watershed) area. It is from this area that the runoff from mountainous rivers is distributed between three countries the Ferghana valley runs through –Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. Intergovernmental agreements developed post 1980 s but they are ignored.
• The problem further escalated because of antiquated water infrastructure and inefficient irrigation methods.
• The undulating trajectories of water channels upset equitable access to water.
• Climate change is also leading to greater stress over water sharing.

ETHNIC ISSUES

Both countries while sharing a loosely intertwined historical past have had different internal dynamics. The instability can be traced to transnational challenges and internal ethnic strife.

NATIONALISTIC POSTURING

• The escalation was preceded by populist moves by the Kyrgyz government regarding border regulation and the resolution of territorial disputes.
• Territorial sovereignty and border security were part of Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov's and his ally, head of the State Committee for National Security, Kamchybek Tashiev's electoral campaigns in late 2020.
• Upon coming to power in 2020 and after being elected in early 2021, the government purchased a few Turkish Bayraktar drones and Russian 'Tigers'
•  Government officials also boasted that they would resolve border disputes with Tajikistan soon

NONCHALANT ATTITUDE OF INTERNATIONAL GROUPINGS

• The current Tajik incursion happened amid a large regional summit, Uzbekistan's hosting of the leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
• The summit, in Samarkand, took place just 350 km away from the area under attack.
• Other than in a sideline meeting between the Kyrgyz and Tajik presidents on September 16, neither president  nor the host, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev  raised the issue formally within the summit
• While it may be a sign of the lack of real capacity or political will to use the SCO to resolve regional disputes
•  The first escalation of the conflict in April 2021 occurred in the middle of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) summit, which was taking place in Dushanbe; that organization did not refer to the outbreak of violence along the host country's borders.

CONFLICT RESOLUTION

• First and foremost groups required a consensus building upon a common map
• The international community should not remain indifferent and try to meditate on the issue to pacify the situation.
• The informal small-scale governance mechanisms would have to be strengthened through concerted efforts by respective countries.