Cold-War

Important Observations

• The only basis for Russia as a superpower is not its economy or conventional military capacity but its large nuclear arsenal
• Ukraine using a clever underdog strategy against Russia that is proceeding on a predictable campaign based on its military power that is overwhelmingly larger than Ukraine's
• Substantial Military capacity cannot subdue fierce resistance from the invaded territory, Russia should have learnt its lesson in Afghanistan
• Russia may win some battles and occupy scorched Ukrainian territory, but it cannot win this war even if ends up occupying all of Ukraine 
• Russia can declare it as a military victory, but it will remain subject to local resistance, strong sanctions and remain a pariah state in the eyes of the West
• Russia will lose economic ties with Europe, which are central to their economic viability, it will be forced to a subordinate position in alliance with China

Europe Market's dependence on Russian gas and Oil vs Russia's dependence on accessing European

• Europe's natural gas comes from only three sources: Russia, Norway, Algeria
• Europe's energy mix comprises Oil (43%), natural gas (24%), nuclear energy (14%), and hydroelectric (4%), with renewables such as wind and solar making up the rest
• Russia stopped supply of gas to Poland Bulgaria quoting the reason as " failing in paying rubbles"
• Russia accounted for 40% of Europe gas imports
• Germany released a statement that " they are ready to stop buying oil from Russia"
• European countries have been importing energy from Russia but have carefully avoided the banks it uses for making payments 
• Poland has been a major gateway for supplying hardware to Ukraine and it issued some sanctions
• Bulgaria, after the new government took office, it has cut many of its oil ties with Moscow
• These gas cuts do not immediately put the two countries in dire trouble, Russian gas deliveries will anyhow end this year
• The 27 members of the European Union described Russia's decision as "Blackmail"
• Russian Economy is heavily dependent on energy exports, deriving 40% of its revenue coming from it, now Russia started gambling with it
• The most likely the outcome of this Cold war can be dominated by the China and US-NATO, with Russian playing a junior partner role to China

India- Cold War

• The voting on the UN General Assembly (UNGA) resolution to expel Russia from the UN Human Rights Council would be a start for this
• If and when the geopolitical conflict gets entrenched, India can take a lead to form a Third Force with others who chose to abstain from the voting in UNGA against Russia
• This third force can stay away from Military, diplomatic and economic conflict and act as a restraining force on the global conflict