The First Advance Estimates (FAEs) are preliminary projections of economic growth presented by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) in early January each year. These estimates provide an initial assessment of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the ongoing financial year.

Methodology of Estimation

The FAEs are formulated using the benchmark-indicator method, which involves extrapolating the previous year's GDP data based on relevant indicators reflecting sectoral performance. These indicators include data on industrial production, agricultural output, trade, services, and other economic activities.

Significance of FAEs

• The FAEs serve as crucial inputs for policymakers, economists, and stakeholders, offering insights into the trajectory of the economy and guiding decision-making processes.
• They are the last GDP data released before the presentation of the Union Budget, providing policymakers with important information to formulate fiscal policies and budgetary allocations.

Key Findings of FAEs

• The FAEs for the current fiscal year (2023-24) suggest a GDP growth rate of 7.3%, indicating a robust economic performance.
• This growth rate surpasses earlier expectations, with projections initially hovering between 5.5% and 6.5%. The upward revision underscores the resilience and strength of India's economic recovery.
• Components contributing to GDP growth include Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE), Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE), net exports, private consumption demand, and government spending.

The release of First Advance Estimates marks a significant milestone in assessing the economic outlook for the ongoing financial year. These estimates offer valuable insights into the performance of various sectors and provide policymakers with essential information to formulate appropriate strategies for sustainable economic growth. As India strives to navigate through economic challenges and capitalize on emerging opportunities, the FAEs play a pivotal role in guiding decision-making and shaping policy interventions for fostering inclusive and resilient economic development.

National Statistical Office

Per Capita Income

Real GDP and Nominal GDP