IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL

1. Context

2. Background of the story

• American officials are concerned about Iran’s rapid nuclear escalation after the US abandoned the deal, and President Joe Biden has said that the US will rejoin the agreement if Iran complies with the terms of the original deal, and if it addresses other issues related to alleged ballistic missile stockpiles and the proxy conflicts that it backs across the region.
• Iran has rejected any deadline imposed by the West, and President Ebrahim Raisi, who is considered a hardliner, has said that “regional and missile issues are non-negotiable”.
• Unless negotiations progress substantively and soon, many Western diplomats fear the existing deal’s point of no return may come soon.

3. What was Iran Nuclear Deal?

• In the 1970s, Iran received assistance in its nuclear program from the United States as part of the 'Atoms for Peace Program. The Shah of Iran even signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in 1968 as a non-nuclear weapons state and ratified the NPT in 1970.
• It all changed when the Iranian revolution threw the country's nuclear program into disarray as many talented scientists fled the country.
• The new regime was openly hostile to the United States and thus ended any hope for assistance from them.
• In the late 1980s, Iran reinstated its nuclear program, with assistance from Pakistan (which entered into a bilateral agreement with Iran in 1992), China (which did the same in 1990), and Russia (which did the same in 1992 and 1995), and from the A.Q. Khan network.
• Although Iran stated that its nuclear program was for peaceful purposes, Western powers and their allies in the Middle East suspected that this was not the case.
• Back-and-forth negotiations between Iran and the Western nations took place throughout the 2000s with little progress.
• Iran even created plants for heavy water and Uranium enrichment which led to economic sanctions from the United States and the European Union.
• It would not be until 15 July 2015 that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action would be created. So far it is the most clear-headed and robust nuclear plan formulated so far.

4. Objectives of JCPOA

• The main objective of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was to slow down Iran's nuclear program. If Iran decided to make a nuclear weapon, it would take a year for it to be complete, giving enough time for world powers to respond.
• United States Intelligence estimates that, in the absence of the JCPOA or a similar agreement. Iran could produce materials for nuclear weapons in a few months. If that came to pass then the entire Middle East would be pushed into a new crisis. Iran's open hostility against Israel is well known.
• In the past Israel has taken covert actions against nuclear facilities in Iraq and Syria and there can be no doubt that they will do the same for facilities in Iran. Should that happen Iran will respond through its proxies like the Lebanon-based Hezbollah or will directly interfere with shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf where most of the World's oil passes through.
• Added to this mix is Saudi Arabia signaling its willingness to get a nuclear weapon of its own if Iran successfully detonates one.
• Before the JCPOA, the P5+1 had been negotiating with Iran for years, offering its government various incentives to halt uranium enrichment. After the 2013 election of President Hassan Rouhani, who was viewed as a reformer, the parties came to a preliminary agreement to guide negotiations for a comprehensive deal.
• Iran wants to sign the JCPOA so that it can get relief from the sanctions that have crippled its economy in the past year. In 2012-2014 alone Iranian economy sustained a loss to the tune of $ 100 billion.

5. Agreements accepted by Iran

• Iran agreed not to produce highly enriched uranium or plutonium, both key components of a nuclear weapon.
• It agreed to ensure that its facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Arak would only be used for power generation, medical, industrial research, or any civilian work.
• Iran eventually agreed to implement a protocol that would allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) unrestricted access to its nuclear facilities. This access can also be applied to undeclared sites.
• A body known as the Joint Commission, which includes representatives of all the negotiating parties, monitors the implementation of the agreement and resolves disputes that may arise.

6. The agreement accepted by the P5+1 and others

• The European Union, the UN, and the United States committed to lifting sanctions on Iran. But some US sanctions dating back to 1979 remained in effect.
• These sanctions were placed due to Iran's support of terror groups, human rights abuses, and its ballistic missile program.
• The parties involved also agreed to lift sanctions on a Weapons embargo provided the United Nations confirms through the IAEA that Iran is only engaged in civilian nuclear activities.

7. What happened after the US pulled out of the deal?

• In April 2020, under Trump’s presidency, the US announced its intention to snap back sanctions.
• However, the other partners objected to the move, stating that since the US was no longer part of the deal, it could not unilaterally reimpose sanctions.
• Initially following the withdrawal, several countries continued to import Iranian oil under waivers granted by the Trump administration.
• A year later, the US ended the waivers to much international criticism and, by doing so, significantly curbed Iran’s oil exports.
• The other powers, in an attempt to keep the deal alive, launched a barter system known as INSTEX to facilitate transactions with Iran outside the US banking system. However, INSTEX only covered food and medicine, which were already exempt from US sanctions.
• Despite the efforts of the US’s allies, therefore, the deal was essentially dead and Tehran made no effort to hide its unhappiness.
• It accused the US of reneging on its commitments and blamed Europe for capitulating to US unilateralism.
• As Iran proceeded to ramp up its nuclear capabilities, in 2020, tensions reached a boiling point following a series of US attacks on Iranian national security interests.
• In January, after the US assassinated the top Iranian general Qasem Soleimani, Iran announced that it would no longer limit its uranium enrichment.
• In October, it began constructing a centrifuge production center in Natanz to replace the one that had been destroyed months earlier in an attack that was blamed on Israel. 
• The following year, Iran announced new restrictions on the IAEA's ability to inspect facilities and later ended its monitoring agreement with the agency.
• Trump had claimed he would get Iran back to the negotiating table and force it to accept harsher terms.
• Instead, Iran was able to double down on its nuclear and military activities in the region and evade sanctions by smuggling oil to buyers including China. Still, the new US sanctions hit the Iranian economy hard, leading to a wave of protests across the country.