• The ongoing civil war in Myanmar has resulted in a significant influx of individuals seeking refuge in India. The scale of migration surged notably during this tumultuous period.
• In September 2022, authorities in Manipur took action by pushing back 4,300 out of approximately 5,500 Myanmar nationals from the Moreh area along the border after recording their biometrics.
• A committee established by the State government estimated the number of such migrants in 2023 to be 2,187.
• The civil war also compelled around 40,000 people to seek shelter in Mizoram, where their ethnic affiliation made them feel more at home compared to Manipur.
• Unlike the pushback approach in Manipur, the Mizoram government has embraced a more accommodating stance, assisting the displaced individuals.
• The Mizoram government has been actively seeking financial support from the Centre to care for these displaced populations, expressing a preference for their return once the situation in Myanmar normalizes.

Tsunamis, derived from the Japanese term meaning "harbour wave," represent a formidable force of nature. These giant ocean waves are triggered by seismic activities, primarily earthquakes or volcanic eruptions beneath the ocean floor. The sudden movement of the ocean floor results in the displacement of an immense volume of water, giving rise to the powerful waves known as tsunamis.

• Earthquakes and Ocean Dynamics: The genesis of most tsunamis is linked to underwater earthquakes. When seismic events occur beneath the ocean, sections of the ocean floor can abruptly shift, either upward or downward. This sudden movement causes a rapid displacement of water, setting off the formation of tsunami waves. Additionally, volcanic eruptions in the ocean can induce similar effects. The outpouring of lava alters the surrounding water, generating waves that can evolve into tsunamis.
• Tsunami Characteristics: Tsunamis often originate in the deep ocean, where substantial water displacement occurs. Initially inconspicuous, these waves gain momentum and height as they approach shallower waters near coastlines. According to NASA, big tsunamis can reach hundreds of feet in height, moving at speeds comparable to jet planes in deep waters but decelerating as they reach the shallows.
• Factors Influencing Tsunami Formation: Not every earthquake or volcanic eruption results in a tsunami. Various factors influence the likelihood of tsunami formation, including the shape of the ocean floor, the distance and direction of the seismic activity, and the overall dynamics of the earthquake. The complex interplay of these factors determines whether a tsunami will be generated and its potential size and impact.
• Tsunami Dynamics: Tsunamis manifest as a series of waves with considerable energy and reach. As they approach coastal areas, the waves can grow in height and intensity. The shallowing of the ocean near the shore plays a crucial role in this amplification. While tsunamis can travel at high speeds over deep waters, they undergo a slowdown upon entering shallower regions.
• Nature's Unpredictability: It is essential to recognize that not all seismic activities lead to tsunamis. The intricate interactions between geological and oceanographic factors contribute to the unpredictability of tsunami occurrence. Understanding the nuances of these variables is crucial for assessing the potential threat posed by a seismic event.

• Geographic Location: Japan's susceptibility to earthquakes and tsunamis can be attributed to its strategic geographic location. The country is positioned along the 'Pacific Ring of Fire,' a highly active tectonic belt renowned for seismic activities worldwide. The term 'ring' denotes an expansive horseshoe-shaped zone encircling the Pacific Ocean, marked by frequent earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, as outlined in a report by Live Science.
• The Pacific Ring of Fire: Within the Pacific Ring of Fire, multiple tectonic plates, including the Pacific Plate, Eurasian Plate, and Indo-Australian Plate, interact dynamically. These plates continually mesh and collide, creating a geological environment conducive to earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis. The intricate interplay of these tectonic forces contributes to the seismic activity that characterizes the region.
• Tectonic Belt Interactions: The convergence and interaction of different tectonic belts within the Ring of Fire generate significant geological events. The Pacific Plate subducts beneath the Eurasian Plate, leading to subduction zones and the release of immense energy. This process initiates earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, both of which can trigger tsunamis due to the abrupt displacement of oceanic water.
• Historical Impact: Japan's vulnerability to these natural disasters was vividly demonstrated in 2011 when a colossal 9.0 magnitude earthquake struck, triggering a devastating tsunami. This catastrophe wreaked havoc on northeastern coastal communities, claiming around 18,000 lives and displacing tens of thousands. The ensuing tsunami also induced a nuclear meltdown at the Fukushima power plant, marking one of the most severe nuclear accidents since the 1986 Chornobyl disaster.
• Ongoing Preparedness: Given the persistent threat of earthquakes and tsunamis, Japan has implemented stringent measures to enhance preparedness and minimize the impact of such events. Advanced early warning systems, resilient infrastructure, and community awareness initiatives are integral components of Japan's comprehensive approach to managing the risks associated with its geologically dynamic location.

4. Why do earthquakes remain unpredictable?

Earthquakes remain unpredictable primarily due to the dynamic and complex nature of the Earth's crust. Several factors contribute to the unpredictability of earthquakes:

• Complexity of Earth's Crust: The Earth's crust is divided into tectonic plates that are constantly in motion. The interactions between these plates, including their collisions, subductions, and lateral movements, create stress and strain along fault lines.
• Abrupt Release of Energy: Earthquakes occur when accumulated stress along a fault line is released abruptly. The exact timing and location of this release are challenging to predict because stress can accumulate over an extended period, and the release can happen suddenly.
• Variability in Earth's Interior: Variations in the composition and structure of the Earth's interior contribute to the unpredictable behaviour of seismic events. Factors such as rock types, temperature, and pressure variations can influence how stress is distributed and released.
• Lack of Precursors: Unlike some natural phenomena, earthquakes often lack clear precursors or warning signs. While scientists can identify seismic risk zones, predicting the precise moment when stress will be released remains a significant challenge.
• Heterogeneity of Faults: Faults, where earthquakes originate, have complex geometries and may consist of multiple segments. The heterogeneous nature of faults makes it difficult to anticipate how stress will be distributed and when a rupture might occur.
• Human-Induced Seismicity: Activities such as mining, reservoir-induced seismicity (due to large reservoirs behind dams), and fluid injection associated with certain industrial practices can induce earthquakes. Human-induced seismicity adds a layer of unpredictability to earthquake occurrence.
• Limitations in Monitoring Technology: While advancements in seismology and monitoring technologies have improved our understanding of earthquakes, limitations still exist in predicting specific details. Comprehensive monitoring of all fault lines globally in real time is a formidable task.

5. What exactly causes earthquakes?

Earthquakes are caused by the sudden release of energy in the Earth's crust, resulting in seismic waves that produce ground shaking. The primary cause of earthquakes is the movement of tectonic plates, which are large sections of the Earth's lithosphere that float on the semi-fluid asthenosphere beneath them. 

• Tectonic Plate Movements: The Earth's outer shell, or lithosphere, is divided into several tectonic plates that float on the semi-fluid asthenosphere. These plates are constantly moving due to the heat-driven convection currents in the Earth's mantle beneath them.
• Plate Boundaries: Tectonic plates interact with each other along their boundaries, where various geological features and phenomena occur. There are three main types of plate boundaries: divergent, convergent, and transform.
• Divergent Boundaries: At divergent boundaries, tectonic plates move away from each other. Magma from the mantle rises to fill the gap, solidifies, and forms a new crust. As the new crust forms, earthquakes can occur due to the adjustment and movement of rocks.
• Convergent Boundaries: At convergent boundaries, tectonic plates move toward each other. When an oceanic plate collides with a continental plate, the denser oceanic plate subducts beneath the continental plate, creating a subduction zone. The intense pressure and friction at subduction zones can lead to powerful earthquakes.
• Transform Boundaries: At transform boundaries, tectonic plates slide past each other horizontally. The friction between the plates prevents them from smoothly sliding, and stress accumulates until it is suddenly released in the form of an earthquake.
• Faults: Faults are fractures in the Earth's crust along which movement has occurred. When stress overcomes the strength of rocks along a fault, it results in a sudden release of energy, causing the rocks to break and slip. This sudden movement generates seismic waves.
• Elastic Rebound Theory: The elastic rebound theory explains how energy accumulates in rocks along a fault due to tectonic forces, causing them to bend and deform. When the stress exceeds the strength of the rocks, they break, releasing stored elastic energy and causing an earthquake.
• Human-Induced Earthquakes: Certain human activities, such as mining, reservoir-induced seismicity (due to large reservoirs behind dams), and fluid injection associated with oil and gas extraction, can induce earthquakes.

6. What is it about an earthquake that causes a tsunami?

A tsunami is often triggered by an underwater earthquake, and the key factor that causes a tsunami is the sudden vertical displacement of the ocean floor. 

• Underwater Earthquake: Tsunamis are commonly generated by undersea earthquakes, particularly those with a significant magnitude. The earthquake causes a sudden release of energy in the Earth's crust beneath the ocean.
• Vertical Displacement: When an earthquake occurs, it can result in the vertical displacement of a large section of the ocean floor. This displacement may involve one tectonic plate being thrust upward while another plate drops downward.
• Displacement of Water: The vertical movement of the ocean floor displaces a large volume of water above it. If the ocean floor moves upward, it lifts the water column above it, creating a bulge. Conversely, if the ocean floor moves downward, it displaces water, creating a depression.
• Formation of Tsunami Waves: The sudden displacement of water sets off a series of waves known as tsunami waves. Unlike regular ocean waves that are caused by wind, tsunami waves are characterized by their long wavelengths and high energy.
• Propagation of Tsunami Waves: Once generated, tsunami waves travel across the ocean at high speeds, often reaching speeds comparable to jet planes. In deep ocean waters, tsunami waves may have a relatively low amplitude (height), making them less noticeable on the ocean's surface.
• Shoaling Effect: As tsunami waves approach shallower coastal waters, the waves' energy is compressed, causing the waves to grow significantly in height. The shoaling effect is responsible for the massive and destructive waves that hit coastlines during a tsunami.
• Impact on Coastal Areas: When tsunami waves reach coastal areas, they can inundate the land with powerful surges of water, causing widespread damage and flooding.

7. What is called the Ring of Fire?

The "Ring of Fire" is a horseshoe-shaped zone that encircles the Pacific Ocean, known for its intense seismic and volcanic activity. This area is characterized by a high degree of tectonic plate movement and is associated with frequent earthquakes and numerous active volcanoes. The Ring of Fire is considered the most geologically active tectonic plate boundary in the world.

Key features of the Ring of Fire include:

• Tectonic Plates: The Ring of Fire is situated along the boundaries of several major tectonic plates, including the Pacific Plate, North American Plate, South American Plate, Eurasian Plate, Philippine Sea Plate, and others. These plates are in constant motion, and their interactions at their boundaries lead to various geological phenomena.
• Subduction Zones: One of the defining characteristics of the Ring of Fire is the presence of subduction zones, where one tectonic plate is forced beneath another. Subduction zones often result in the formation of deep ocean trenches, volcanic arcs, and intense seismic activity.
• Volcanic Activity: The Ring of Fire is home to about 75% of the world's active and dormant volcanoes. Volcanic arcs, formed by the subduction of oceanic plates beneath continental plates, are a common feature in this region.
• Earthquakes: Due to the dynamic interactions between tectonic plates, the Ring of Fire experiences a high frequency of earthquakes. Many of the world's most powerful and devastating earthquakes occur along the tectonic boundaries within the Ring of Fire.
• Pacific Ocean: The Ring of Fire follows the rim of the Pacific Ocean, connecting regions such as the west coasts of North and South America, Japan, Southeast Asia, and the western coasts of Central and South America.

8. The Way Forward

While Japan's vulnerability is particularly high due to its location, other regions bordering the Pacific Ocean and situated near active tectonic zones face similar risks. The lessons learned and strategies developed in Japan can be adapted and applied to other vulnerable regions to mitigate the impact of future tsunamis and save lives.

By prioritizing education, preparedness, research, and international cooperation, we can build more resilient coastal communities and face the challenges posed by tsunamis with greater knowledge and preparedness. The recent events in Japan serve as a call to action, reminding us that understanding the Earth's dynamic forces and investing in proactive measures is essential for a safer future in vulnerable regions around the world.