EL-NINO

1. Context 

2. About El Nino and La Nino

• El Nino refers to a band of warmer water spreading from west to east in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Years in which an El Nino occurs are simply called "El Nino years and global weather patterns in that year tend to be anomalous in certain ways.
• Similarly, a La Nina occurs when the band of water spreads east-west and is cooler.
• Both phenomena affect the weather worldwide and can have drastic effects on economies that depend on rainfall.
• Together, El Nino and La Nina make up a cyclical process called the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

   

3. El Nino and La Nina forecasts

• The first thing to note is that El Nino forecasts before spring tend to be notoriously unreliable due to a so-called spring predictability barrier.
• The climate system is quite noisy in spring as the Sun transitions across the equator from one hemisphere to the other. This complicates El Nino's predictions before the spring.
• Second and perhaps more importantly, in a La Nina year, the tropical Pacific Ocean soaks up heat like a sponge and builds up its volume of warm water.
• During El Nino, this warm water spills from the western part of the Pacific Ocean to the eastern part. 
• But the earth has had three straight La Nina years, which means the Pacific's warm-water volume is fully loaded and is likely to birth an El Nino soon.
• An El Nino year creates a global-warming crisis in miniature, since the warm water spreading across the tropical Pacific releases a large amount of heat into the atmosphere.

• Again, it is not clear if this transient spike will produce anything more dramatic beyond the extremes we are already experiencing.
• An El Nino will of course bring its usual global perturbations, including cyclones and the monsoon.

4. Effects on the northern Indian Ocean

• A transition from a La Nina winter which we are in currently to an El Nino summer has historically tended to produce the largest deficit in the monsoon, on the order of 15 per cent.
• This means that pre-monsoon and monsoon circulations tend to be weaker in an El Nino Year.
• The vertical shear (change in the intensity of winds from the surface to the upper atmosphere) tends to be weaker as well.
• This in turn can favour enhanced cyclogenesis i.e. cyclone formation.
• Of course, the global climate system is not so simple. Intraseasonal or sub-seasonal timescale variability in sea-surface temperature and winds is also very important for cyclogenesis over the northern Indian Ocean.
• These timescales denote the durations for which certain temperature and wind characteristics persist in the pre and post-monsoon periods.
• This said the net effect is for cyclogenesis to be subdued in an El Nino year.
• Again, we will have to wait until spring to get a sense of how the cyclone season will play out this year.

5. Monsoons

• As for the monsoon itself: if an El Nino state does emerge by summer, we will likelier than not have a deficit monsoon in 2023.
• Some research has indicated that the Indian Ocean diploe seesawing of sea-surface temperature over the western Indian Ocean could compensate for the negative effects of an El Nino.
• But it is not yet clear whether there is a robust relation between the dipole, El Nino and the summer monsoon. We also do not know if the dipole will evolve the "right" way this year.
• As has been the case in recent decades, a monsoon deficit itself will be accompanied by a smorgasbord of both wet and dry extreme events.
• A weaker monsoon circulation will produce a severe deficit over much of India.
• And while the overall seasonal total could be deficient, there are likely to be isolated pockets of heavy or very heavy rainfall. It's complicated the monsoon version.
• Then there are the monsoon's vagaries themselves.  For example, pre-monsoon cyclones are susceptible to warming in the Arctic region and could in turn affect the onset of the summer monsoon.
• Indeed, the summer monsoon system is quite complicated: its various components are affected by a plethora of meteorological events both local and global. Even details at the intraseasonal scale can have an effect.
• For example, the Bay of Bengal has of late been receiving freshwater from heavy rains as well as anomalously high river runoffs.
• These waters tend to sneak into the Arabian Sea and produce surface warming and the build-up of subsurface heat.
• These changes together may create favourable conditions for the formation of bigger and worse cyclones, especially if the circulation and the vertical shear are weaker as well.
• In all, India will have to wait for the El Nino forecast to be updated in the coming weeks.
• It will also have to hope for the best and unavoidably, prepare for the worst.
• Apart from preparedness, an unfavourable prediction will also test the India Meteorological Department's suite of forecast products and efforts to translate its forecasts into usable advisories for fishing, farming, flood alerts, etc.

For Prelims & Mains

ASEAN

1. Context

Thailand’s objection was flagged during the ongoing India-ASEAN FTA review where India is trying to boost exports to Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries and bridge the ballooning trade gap

2. About the ASEAN and East Asia Summit?

ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations)

• ASEAN is a regional intergovernmental organization consisting of ten countries in Southeast Asia.
• It was founded on August 8, 1967, to promote political and economic cooperation, regional stability, and social progress among its member states.
• The founding members of ASEAN are Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, with Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, and Cambodia joining later.
• ASEAN holds regular meetings and summits to discuss regional issues, economic integration, and diplomatic cooperation.

Image Source: The Research Gate

East Asia Summit (EAS)

• The East Asia Summit is a broader regional forum that includes ASEAN member states along with eight other countries, namely Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, Russia, and the United States.
• The EAS was established in 2005 to provide a platform for discussions on strategic, political, and economic issues affecting East Asia.
• It addresses a wide range of regional and global challenges, from security and trade to environmental issues.

Image Source: Twitter

3. The Rationality behind the ASEAN and East Asia Summit 

• Promote regional peace and stability. The EAS provides a forum for leaders to discuss and address common security challenges, such as terrorism, piracy, and natural disasters.
• Foster economic growth and development. The EAS can help to promote trade and investment, and to facilitate economic integration in the region.
• Address non-traditional security challenges. The EAS can also address non-traditional security challenges, such as climate change, pandemics, and human trafficking.

4. About ‘multilateralism’ 

Multilateralism is a principle of international relations that emphasizes cooperation between countries. This cooperation can take many forms, such as diplomacy, trade agreements, and international organizations. There are several benefits to multilateralism including

1. It can help to promote peace and stability by encouraging countries to work together to resolve their differences.

2. It can help to promote economic growth by reducing barriers to trade and investment. 

3. It can help to address common challenges, such as climate change and terrorism.

4.1. Concept of Multilateralism

• The concept of multilateralism emphasizes diplomacy, negotiation, and cooperation among nations to achieve collective objectives.
• It rests on equality, non-interference in internal affairs, and respect for international law.
• Multilateral institutions like the United Nations, the World Trade Organization, and regional organizations such as ASEAN play significant roles in facilitating multilateral cooperation.

4.2. Purpose of Multilateralism

• Foster international cooperation and dialogue.
• Promote peace and security by addressing conflicts through diplomacy and collective security mechanisms.
• Facilitate economic integration and trade through agreements like the World Trade Organization (WTO).
• Address global challenges such as climate change, public health crises, and terrorism through coordinated efforts.
• Uphold international law and human rights.
• Create a more stable and predictable international system.

4.3.  About post-Cold War multilateralism

• Post-Cold War multilateralism refers to the practice of cooperation between countries in the post-Cold War era.
• This cooperation is often seen as a way to address common challenges and promote peace and stability.
• There are several reasons why multilateralism has become more important in the post-Cold War era.

1. The end of the Cold War led to a decline in superpower rivalry, which created an opportunity for countries to cooperate more closely.
2. The rise of new challenges, such as terrorism and climate change, has made it clear that no country can address these challenges alone.
3. The increasing interconnectedness of the world economy has made it more important for countries to cooperate on trade and investment issues.

5. Unilateralism and Multilateralism in International Relations

Unilateralism

• Unilateralism is an approach in international relations where a nation acts independently and without seeking the approval or cooperation of other countries.
• This can include making decisions, taking military action, or implementing policies without regard for international consensus.
• Unilateralism can be seen as a more assertive or isolationist stance.

Multilateralism

• Multilateralism involves collaboration and cooperation among multiple nations to address global challenges.
• It values diplomacy, negotiation, and shared responsibilities. Multilateral approaches are often considered more inclusive and consensus-based.

6. Is multilateralism declining?

• There is some evidence to suggest that multilateralism is declining. For example, the number of new international organizations has declined in recent years, and there has been a rise in unilateralism, particularly in the United States.
• However, there are also many examples of countries cooperating multilaterally to address common challenges.
• Ultimately, the future of multilateralism will depend on the willingness of countries to work together to address the challenges of the 21st century.

For Prelims: ASEAN, East Asia Summit, Post-Cold War,  multilateralism, G20 summit, United Nations, the World Trade Organization, Unilateralism, For Mains:  1. Discuss the concept and purpose of post-Cold War multilateralism. What factors have contributed to the increased emphasis on multilateral cooperation in the post-Cold War era? (250 Words)

 

 

Previous Year Questions   1. India is a member of which among the following? (UPSC 2015)  1. Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation 2. Association of South-East Asian Nations 3. East Asia Summit Select the correct answer using the code given below. A. 1 and 2 only        B. 3 only        C. 1, 2 and 3           D. India is a member of none of them   Answer: B   2. Recently, the USA decided to support India's membership in multilateral export control regimes called the "Australia Group" and the "Wassenaar Arrangement". What is the difference between them? (UPSC 2011) 1. The Australia Group is an informal arrangement which aims to allow exporting countries to minimize the risk of assisting chemical and biological weapons proliferation, whereas the Wassenaar Arrangement is a formal group under the OECD holding identical objectives. 2. The Australia Group comprises predominantly of Asian, African and North American countries, whereas the member countries of Wassenaar Arrangement are predominantly from the European Union and American continents. Which of the statements given above is/are correct? A. 1 only          B. 2 only         C. Both 1 and 2            D. Neither 1 nor 2   Answer: D   3. With reference to the "Look East Policy" of India, consider the following statements (UPSC 2011) 1. India wants to establish itself as an important regional player in East Asian affairs. 2. India wants to plug the vacuum created by the termination of the Cold War. 3. India wants to restore the historical and cultural ties with its neighbours in Southeast and East Asia. Which of the statements given above is/are correct? A. 1 only               B. 1 and 3 only           C. 3 only        D. 1, 2 and 3   Answer: B   4.With reference to the “G20 Common Framework”, consider the following statements: (UPSC 2022) 1. It is an initiative endorsed by the G20 together with the Paris Club. 2. It is an initiative to support Low Income Countries with unsustainable debt. Which of the statements given above is/are correct? (a) 1 only          (b) 2 only          (c) Both 1 and 2          (d) Neither 1 nor 2 Answer: C   5. In which one of the following groups are all the four countries members of G20? (UPSC 2020)  A. Argentina, Mexico, South Africa and Turkey B. Australia, Canada, Malaysia and New Zealand C. Brazil, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Vietnam D. Indonesia, Japan, Singapore and South Korea Answer: A   6. With reference to the United Nations General Assembly, consider the following statements: (UPSC 2022)  1. The UN General Assembly can grant observer status to the non-member States. 2. Inter-governmental organisations can seek observer status in the UN General Assembly. 3. Permanent Observers in the UN General Assembly can maintain missions at the UN headquarters. Which of the statements given above are correct? A. 1 and 2 only    B. 2 and 3 only    C.1 and 3 only  D. 1, 2 and 3   Answer: D   7. In the Context of which of the following do you sometimes find the terms 'amber box, blue box and green tax' in the news? (UPSC CSE 2016) A. WTO Affairs B. SAARC affairs C. UNFCC affairs D. India-EU negotions on FTA Answer-A 8. In the context of the affairs which of the following is the phrase "Special Safeguard Mechanisms" mentioned in the news frequently? (UPSC 2010) A. United Nations Environment Program B. World Trade Organization Agreement C. ASEAN-India D. Free Trade G-20 Summits Answer: B 9. Consider the following statements: (UPSC 2017) 1. India has ratified the Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) of the WTO 2. TFA is a part of WTO's Bali Ministerial Package of 2013 3. TFA came into force in January 2016 Which of the statements given above is/are correct? A. 1 and 2 only B. 1 and 3 only C. 2 and 3 only D. 1, 2 and 3 Answer: A 10. Which of the following are the main functions of WTO? (UPSC ESE 2020)  1. To organize meetings of member countries to arrive at trade agreements covering international trade 2. To ensure that member countries conduct trade practices as per agreement agreed upon and signed by the member countries 3. To provide a platform to negotiate and settle disputes related to international trade between and among member countries A. 1 and 2 only          B. 1 and 3 only      C.  2 and 3 only            D.  1, 2 and 3   Answer: D   11. In a unilateral system of tolerance, tolerance is allowed on which side? (HPCL Engineer Mechanical 2021)  A. one side of the nominal size B. no side of the nominal size C. Both sides of the actual size D. One side of the actual size   Answer: A   12. Which of the following is a bilateral element? (UPSSSC JE Electrical 2016) A. constant current source B. constant voltage source C. capacitance D. None of these   Answer: C

 

 

LIVESTOCK PRODUCT

 

 

1. Context

 

The Supreme Court this week confirmed that ghee (clarified butter) is indeed a “product of livestock”, rejecting an argument by producers of livestock in Andhra Pradesh that it was not.

The SC upheld an order of the Andhra Pradesh High Court, which had said that ghee is “a product of a product of livestock”, and it would therefore be “illogical or irrational” to say that it isn’t produced by livestock

 

2. Livestock and Ghee

 

• On July 15, 1994, the government of (undivided) Andhra Pradesh released an official statement designating ghee as a livestock product, with the intent of regulating its purchase and sale within specified market areas.
• This regulation was to be implemented following the prescribed procedures outlined in The Andhra Pradesh (Agricultural Produce and Livestock) Markets Act, 1966.
• A consortium of livestock producers contested the notification on two grounds: (i) asserting that ghee does not qualify as a "product of livestock" and, therefore, should not be subject to regulation as notified, and (ii) contending that the government had not adhered to the notification process outlined in Section 3 of the 1966 Act, which mandates the publication of a draft notification, solicitation of objections, and subsequent issuance of the notification only after addressing these objections.
• Section 3 specifies a procedure involving the publication of a draft notification, the solicitation of objections, and the issuance of the notification only after the careful consideration of these objections. In contrast, Section 4 outlines the establishment of a market committee and the declaration of a designated market area. ("Sangam Milk Producer Company Limited vs. the Agricultural Market Committee & Others")

3.How does the 1966 Andhra Pradesh Act define “livestock”?

 

• The Act, in Section 2(v), defines "livestock" to encompass "cows, buffaloes, bullocks, bulls, goats, and sheep," and additionally includes "poultry, fish, and any other animals declared by the Government through notification as livestock for the purposes of this Act." Section 2(xv) of the Act specifies that products derived from livestock may be designated as "products of livestock for the purposes of this Act" through a government notification.
• The legislative objective of the Act was to consolidate and amend laws governing the trade of agricultural produce, livestock, and products of livestock.
• It aimed to establish interconnected markets, fostering a farmer-friendly environment with the goal of ensuring fair prices for commodities. The Act envisioned bringing producers and traders into direct interaction, with the intent of eliminating intermediaries in the process

4.High Court Ruling

 

• In 2009, a three-judge panel of the Andhra Pradesh High Court concluded that although ghee is not directly derived from milk (a definite product of cows/buffaloes), it is unquestionably a product resulting from livestock, specifically cows or buffaloes.
• The court emphasized the illogicality or irrationality of asserting that ghee is neither a milk/dairy product nor a product of livestock.
• According to the court, Section 2 of the Act had a "very clear" legislative intent, stating that livestock products encompass not only those officially notified by the government, such as butter and milk, but also "derivative items" like ghee.
• The court asserted its conviction that interpreting the term 'ghee' should be based on the definition of 'products of livestock' as outlined in Section 2(xv) of the Act.
• Furthermore, the court dismissed the petitioner's procedural argument, maintaining that the 1994 notification had been issued not under Section 3 but under Section 4 of the Act

5. Supreme Court Ruling

 

• When the decision of the Andhra Pradesh High Court (AP HC) faced a challenge, the Supreme Court was tasked with determining two key issues: (i) whether ghee qualified as a "product of livestock" according to the provisions of the 1966 Act, and (ii) whether the 1994 notification adhered to the prescribed legal procedure.
• On Tuesday (March 5), Justices Sudhanshu Dhulia and SVN Bhatti, comprising a bench, affirmed the validity of the 1994 notification, granting market committees the authority to impose fees on the sale and purchase of ghee.
• The court dismissed the argument asserting that 'ghee' is not a livestock product, deeming it unfounded and lacking in logic. Conversely, it endorsed the view that 'ghee' is indeed a product of livestock, stating the logical soundness of this perspective.
• Citing Section 2(v) of the Act, which defines livestock to include cows and buffaloes, the court underscored that 'ghee' is unquestionably a product of milk, itself being a product of livestock. Drawing on its 2001 decision in 'Park Leather Industry Ltd. v. State of UP,' the court emphasized that all animal husbandry products fall within the definition of 'products of livestock' as outlined in Section 2(xv) of the Act.
• In the 2001 case, the Supreme Court had dealt with the UP Krishi Utpadan Mandi Adhiniyam, 1964, where "agricultural produce" encompassed "animal husbandry products," including "hides and skins." The court had to determine whether tanned leather fell under "hides and skins."
• The court affirmed that regardless of appearance, tanned leather remains a type of leather and falls under the definition of "hides and skins." The Supreme Court applied a similar rationale, as adopted by the Full Bench of the Andhra Pradesh High Court, asserting that 'ghee,' derived from 'milk' through a process, remains a product of livestock for the purposes of the Act and the payment of market fees

6. Way Forward

 

With appeals dismissed, the Court rescinded earlier interim orders, allowing market committees to collect fees from appellants in compliance with the High Court's decision. Recognizing the prolonged delay in fee payments, the Court granted appellants a two-year period to settle the dues in four equal installments

 

Source: Indianexpress