Why are fertility levels declining in India?

For Preliminary Examination:  Total Fertility Rate (TFR), Child Mortality

For Mains Examination: GS III -  Science & Technology

Context:

A comprehensive demographic analysis of global fertility in 204 countries and territories from 1950-2021 has found that fertility is declining globally and that future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide, remaining low even under successful implementations of pro-natal policies.

Read about:

Total fertility rate (TFR)

Infant mortality rate

Key takeaways:

India's Fertility Trends

• The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 highlights India’s transition from a fertility rate of 6.18 in the 1950s to a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 1.9 in 2021, which is below the replacement level of 2.1 (the threshold needed for population stability). The study further predicts that India's TFR could drop to 1.04 by 2100, equating to barely one child per woman.
• This sharp decline has raised concerns about the political and socio-economic consequences, particularly in southern states, which may face a reduction in parliamentary representation following the 2026 delimitation exercise.

Reasons for Fertility Decline

• Although India has a long-standing family planning program, other factors appear to have contributed significantly to the reduction in fertility rates. These include rising female literacy, increased workforce participation among women, greater empowerment, and changing aspirations.
• Societal attitudes towards marriage and reproduction have also shifted, with many women choosing to marry later, remain single, or prioritize careers and financial independence over motherhood.
• Additional contributing factors include increasing infertility rates, abortion rates, and migration, as many young Indians move abroad for education and employment, opting to settle and raise families elsewhere.

Implications of Declining Fertility

The decline in fertility has led to a demographic shift, particularly in southern states, where an aging population, shrinking youth workforce, and increased healthcare and social security demands are becoming significant challenges. States like Kerala are experiencing the effects acutely, with a rising elderly population and high rates of youth migration.

Trends in Southern States

• Southern states, which achieved replacement-level fertility earlier than the rest of India, are witnessing irreversible fertility declines. Kerala, for instance, reached replacement fertility in 1988, with other southern states following suit by the mid-2000s.
• Factors such as improved education, women's empowerment, and advancements in social and healthcare sectors contributed to this transition.
• However, Kerala’s economic growth has been limited, prompting educated youth to migrate in search of better opportunities.
• By 2036, Kerala's elderly population is expected to surpass its child population, further straining healthcare systems.

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