What is the global fallout of two warfronts? 

• The Israel conflict, particularly the ongoing hostilities between Israel and Hamas, has significant regional implications, with potential consequences for global security and supply chains. 
• Israeli leaders' claims that the fighting may continue for months raise concerns about the possibility of a wider regional war. The conflict has the potential to draw in other nations, increasing the scale and complexity of the hostilities.
• The persistent conflicts and large-scale destruction in the region pose a threat to global security. The volatility and instability in the Middle East can have ripple effects, leading to increased tensions and potential conflicts beyond the immediate theatre of war.
• The Israel conflict can disrupt supply chains, particularly those related to energy resources. The Middle East is a major hub for oil production, and any escalation of the conflict could impact the global oil supply, leading to fluctuations in oil prices and affecting economies worldwide.
• The Global South, consisting of developing nations with a focus on their own developmental challenges, is growing impatient with the current order. The prolonged conflicts and disruptions in the Middle East divert attention and resources away from addressing the pressing issues faced by these nations.
• In response to the ongoing conflicts and their impact on global dynamics, there is a push within the Global South for alternative approaches and solutions. These nations may seek new diplomatic avenues, alliances, or frameworks to address conflicts and promote stability in the region.
• The identified trends are likely to continue into 2024. This indicates a sustained period of uncertainty, with potential shifts in geopolitical alliances, economic strategies, and diplomatic initiatives in response to the evolving situation in the Middle East.

In February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared war on Ukraine in a televised address. He stated that Russia's military action aimed to demilitarize Ukraine and was a response to perceived threats from Ukraine. The conflict has since led to widespread international concern and condemnation.

Background of Russia-Ukraine Conflict

• Escalation over EU Deal (2013): Tensions between Ukraine and Russia heightened in late 2013 when Ukraine pursued a political and trade deal with the European Union. The pro-Russian then-President, Viktor Yanukovych, suspended the talks, leading to weeks of protests in Kyiv.
• Ousting of Yanukovych (2014): The protests escalated, resulting in violence, and eventually, Yanukovych, the pro-Russian President, was ousted from power.
• Annexation of Crimea (2014): In response, Russia invaded Crimea, a part of Ukraine, and annexed it in March 2014. The pretext for the invasion was the defence of Russian interests and Russian-speaking citizens in Crimea.
• Declaration of Independence (2014): Following the annexation, pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk regions declared their independence from Kyiv, establishing the autonomous Donetsk People's Republic in 2014.
• Recognition of Independence (2022): In February 2022, Russia recognized the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk, escalating tensions in the region.
• Peace Deal in Minsk (2015): Kyiv and Moscow signed a peace deal in Minsk in 2015, brokered by France and Germany. Despite the agreement, it failed to bring lasting peace to the region.
• Putin's Declaration of War (2022): In February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared war on Ukraine in a televised address. He stated that the military action aimed to demilitarize Ukraine and was a response to perceived threats from Ukraine.

Reasons for Russia's Invasion

• Preventing NATO Expansion: Russia sought a guarantee that Ukraine would not join NATO, aiming to prevent the alliance's further expansion into former Soviet republics, particularly Ukraine.
• NATO Arms Limitation: Russia demanded that NATO cease deploying weapons and forces in Central and Eastern European countries that joined the alliance after 1997.
• Ban on NATO Missiles: Concerned about NATO's involvement in Ukraine, Russia wanted a ban on NATO missiles within striking distance, considering them a potential threat to its security.
• Autonomy for Eastern Ukraine: Russia insisted that Ukraine fulfil its obligations under the 2015 Minsk agreements, which aimed to end the conflict and provide additional autonomy to the separatist Russian-speaking territories in the Donbas region.

3. Ukraine War's Global Implications

• The Ukraine war, emerging as the largest ground conflict in Europe since World War II, is distinguished by significant great power involvement. The focal point of the conflict lies in the rivalry between NATO, a Cold War-era trans-Atlantic nuclear alliance, and Russia, an established but ageing great power.
• While the physical battleground involves Russian and Ukrainian forces within Ukrainian territories, the root cause of the conflict stems from the enduring tension between NATO and Russia. Following the outbreak of war, NATO, led by the United States, formed a coalition aimed at providing substantial financial and military support to Ukraine, with a declared objective of weakening Russia.
• The Western response to the conflict unfolds on two fronts. Firstly, extensive sanctions have been imposed to cripple the Russian economy, despite reciprocal impacts on Western economies. Secondly, the West has actively supplied Ukraine with billions of dollars worth of advanced weaponry, seeking to impede Russia's military advances on the battlefield.
• The effectiveness of sanctions in hampering the Russian war machine, coupled with the evolving global economic landscape shaped by the rise of China and India, highlights shifts in the dynamics of economic power. The interplay of these factors underscores the complexity of contemporary geopolitical strategies.
• On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces, bolstered by tens of thousands trained in Western bases and equipped with sophisticated weaponry, engaged in intense conflict. However, despite breakthroughs in cities like Kharkiv and Kherson in the preceding year, Ukraine struggled to make substantial territorial gains in 2023. The recent Russian offensive in Marinka underscores the challenges faced by Ukraine and its allies.
• As the war approaches its third year, Ukraine and its allies confront sobering realities. Despite initial successes, the conflict's dynamics have shifted, with Russian forces now on the offensive. The evolving situation prompts a reassessment of strategies and objectives by Ukraine and its allies, marking a critical juncture in the prolonged conflict.

4. Israel’s war on Gaza

• In contrast to Russia's prolonged war in Ukraine, Israel is conducting a swift and intense offensive in Gaza. The attacks have resulted in severe damage, rendering parts of Gaza virtually uninhabitable. However, Israel has not achieved its stated objectives, including freeing hostages, dismantling Hamas, or eliminating the top leadership of the Islamist group.
• Entering its third month, Israel shows no signs of relenting in its military campaign. Despite the duration, the declared goals of the war remain unfulfilled. Hamas persists, and the objectives set by Israel seem distant.
• Israel finds itself increasingly isolated on the global stage, despite asserting that Hamas initiated the conflict. The war has raised questions about the moral stance of the West, especially the Biden administration, in light of its condemnation of Russia's actions in Ukraine.
• The humanitarian toll in Gaza is staggering, with a reported 21,000 Palestinians killed in less than three months, a majority of them being women and children. In contrast, the Ukraine conflict, spanning 22 months, has resulted in approximately 10,000 civilian casualties. The U.S., while supporting Ukraine with arms and funds, has not advocated for a Gaza ceasefire, leading to criticism.
• The U.S. has used its veto power twice in the UN Security Council to block resolutions calling for a humanitarian ceasefire. Additionally, in the UN General Assembly, the U.S., along with Israel and two other countries, opposed a resolution endorsing the Palestinians' right to self-determination. This stance has fueled resentment in the Arab world, questioning U.S. support for Israel.
• The ongoing conflict has stirred anger in the Arab world, leading to shifts in geopolitical alliances. Russia and China are positioning themselves as supporters of the Palestinian cause, capitalizing on discontent with the U.S. and Israel. The geopolitical fallout of Israel's offensive in Gaza continues to unfold amid evolving global dynamics.

5. Global South's Response to the Ukraine War and Gaza Conflict

Ukraine War

Most Global South countries resisted endorsing the Western narrative portraying the conflict as an "unprovoked Russian aggression" in the case of Ukraine. They refrained from participating in the sanctions regime and instead advocated for dialogue and an immediate ceasefire. The emphasis was on upholding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations, including Ukraine.

Gaza Conflict

In the Gaza conflict, the Global South has expressed support for an immediate ceasefire, denouncing the extensive hostilities. While condemning Hamas attacks, the Global South strongly supports the Palestinians' right to self-determination, calling for an end to Israel's prolonged occupation of Palestinian territories. The Global South observes and critiques varying positions taken by Western nations, particularly the U.S., highlighting inconsistencies in their stances on different conflicts.

6. India's Approach to Global Conflicts