COP28 — many a slippery slope ahead 

1. Fossil Fuels in Focus at COP28

From the outset of COP28, fossil fuels, accountable for a substantial 75% of all greenhouse gases and a staggering 90% of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, took centre stage in climate COP discussions for the first time. Held in the Gulf region, anxieties about the oil industry's influence were already circulating. The COP28 President, Sultan Al Jaber, who also heads the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), a major oil and gas producer, added fuel to the fire by asserting in an interview that there was no scientific basis for reducing fossil fuel usage to combat climate change. Concerns were raised about the increasing presence of fossil fuel companies, sometimes as part of official country delegations, granting them access to crucial negotiation rooms. In Dubai, their numbers swelled to 2,000, surpassing the delegation of any single country.

On a positive note, all three global stocktake draft texts aligned with the Global Stocktake (GST) input findings, emphasizing that achieving the 1.5°C target necessitates a "deep, rapid, and sustained" reduction in global emissions by 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035, relative to 2019 levels. The goal is to reach net-zero CO2 by 2050, with global emissions projected to peak around 2020 or no later than 2025.

However, the initial draft text garnered mixed responses, particularly regarding the phase-down or phasing out of fossil fuels. The second draft, circulated late on the penultimate day, triggered strong reactions. It outlined a list of options that countries "could" take for emissions cuts, including the "reduction" of fossil fuel production and usage, downplaying financial support from developed countries. Small island states deemed the text a death sentence, African countries sought assurances on funding, and the European Union threatened to walk out, arguing that the 1.5°C target was unattainable with such a text.

In response to the contentious situation, the COP was extended, and on the morning of December 13, a fresh text was tabled. This draft aimed to navigate the complexities surrounding fossil fuels by calling for a "transition away" from them, a compromise celebrated by many as signalling the end of the fossil fuel era. Amid this relief, however, other significant gaps in the text were overlooked.

 3. The Global Stocktake (GST) input report

The Global Stocktake (GST) input report serves as a crucial document in the context of international climate governance, particularly within the framework of COPs (Conferences of the Parties) such as COP28. The GST is a comprehensive assessment that evaluates the collective progress of countries toward meeting climate-related goals and commitments. 

Key Aspects of the Report

• State of Greenhouse Gas Emissions analyzes global trends in greenhouse gas emission levels, evaluating whether countries are on track to meet their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and achieve the Paris Agreement's long-term temperature goals.
• State of Adaptation Efforts assesses the progress made in adapting to the impacts of climate change, including vulnerability assessments, adaptation plans, and implemented measures. It highlights existing challenges and gaps in adaptation efforts, particularly in vulnerable regions.
• Overall Effectiveness of NDCs evaluates the effectiveness of current NDCs in achieving the Paris Agreement goals. It analyzes the ambition of NDCs, their alignment with scientific recommendations, and their potential to contribute to global emissions reductions.
• Finance Flows examines the flow of financial resources for climate action, including both public and private investments. It assesses the adequacy of current financial flows to meet the needs of developing countries in both mitigation and adaptation efforts.
• Other Relevant Information includes additional information on various aspects of climate action, such as technology development and transfer, capacity building, and education.

Significance of the Global Stocktake Input Report

• The report plays a crucial role in informing international climate negotiations by providing a factual and objective assessment of progress. This evidence base is essential for holding countries accountable and making informed decisions about future actions.
• The report highlights key areas where further action is needed, prompting countries and stakeholders to step up their efforts and address existing challenges.
• The global stocktake process fosters dialogue and collaboration between countries, allowing them to share best practices and learn from each other's experiences.
• The report serves as a reference point for measuring progress towards the Paris Agreement goals, enabling the international community to track its collective efforts and assess its effectiveness.

While the final draft at COP28 called for a "phase-down" of fossil fuels, its vague language and numerous loopholes raised concerns about its effectiveness in tackling the climate crisis. Here's a closer look at the issues:

Loose Definitions Weaken Commitments

• The term "unabated" in "unabated coal power" is ambiguous, potentially allowing cleaner coal technologies to continue, delaying a complete shift to renewables.
• Terms like "low-carbon fuels," "transitional fuels," and "low-emission technologies" have undefined parameters, opening doors for continued usage of natural gas and other fossil fuels with questionable environmental benefits.
• Overdependence on carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) - a technology with unproven efficiency and long-term environmental impact - undermines genuine emission reductions.

Equity and Finance: A Forgotten Agenda

• The draft's mention of equity and common but differentiated responsibility (CBDR) is insufficient, potentially neglecting the diverse needs and responsibilities of developed and developing nations.
• Crucially, there are no new financial commitments from developed countries. The draft expresses concern over the unfulfilled $100 billion annual target from 2020 but fails to provide concrete steps to address this critical shortfall.
• The immense needs of developing countries for both adaptation and clean energy transition – estimated at $5.8 trillion by 2030 – remain largely unaddressed, leaving climate-vulnerable nations exposed.
• The new Loss and Damage fund receives scant attention, with insufficient pledges and lacking a clear roadmap for effective support.

Rushed Process and Uncertain Implementation

• The tight timeline for reviewing and approving the final draft left little room for thorough analysis and potential disagreements, raising concerns about its legitimacy and effectiveness.
• The hasty closure, while providing a sense of completion, leaves many questions unanswered and uncertainties regarding the practical implementation of the agreements.

While COP28 concluded with the apparent fanfare of a "transition away" from fossil fuels, a closer look reveals a hollowness beneath the celebratory rhetoric. Voices of dissent, particularly from marginalized nations, paint a stark picture of missed opportunities and unaddressed challenges.

Betrayal of the Vulnerable:

• Small island states like Samoa spoke of being sidelined during the final text's adoption, their objections drowned out by a rushed process. Their grievances echoed throughout the halls, highlighting the continued neglect of those most vulnerable to climate impacts.
• African nations joined the chorus of discontent, lamenting the lax approach towards fossil fuels and the glaring absence of tangible financial support. The developed world, it seems, has yet again prioritized its own interests over the urgent needs of those on the frontlines of climate change.

Empty Promises and Unfulfilled Obligations:

• Beyond the vague pledge to "transition away" from fossil fuels, COP28 offers little substance. The road map towards achieving the 1.5°C target remains shrouded in ambiguity, with crucial timelines and concrete actions missing.
• Financial assistance, the lifeblood of climate action in developing countries, remains stagnant. The much-needed scaling up of resources, as estimated by the Global Stocktake, failed to materialize, leaving a yawning gap in the means to implement even the meagre commitments made.
• The Global Goal on Adaptation, a beacon of hope for building resilience against climate impacts, stands crippled and incomplete. Its lack of finalization signifies another missed opportunity to equip vulnerable communities with the tools they desperately need.

A Pyrrhic Victory for Fossil Fuels and Developed Nations:

• While the world celebrates a supposed "transition," the fossil fuel industry walks away with a quiet victory. The absence of clear timelines and stringent regulations ensures they can continue operating for years to come, perpetuating the very crisis we seek to address.
• Developed nations, adept at deflecting responsibility and delaying meaningful action, can also claim a win. Their tactics of diluting commitments and avoiding substantial financial contributions have borne fruit, leaving the burden of tackling the climate crisis disproportionately on developing nations.