China, a ‘want-to-be’ superpower 

The first anniversary of the Saudi Arabia-Iran détente brokered by China in March 2023 passed quietly, overshadowed by the Gaza conflict that has absorbed regional political and diplomatic energies across the Persian Gulf. This crisis has also shed light on international actors and their fundamental interests within this dynamic.

China has taken a distinctly pro-Palestine stance, consistent with its historical position on the matter, which has strained its relations with Israel. Despite this, Chinese state-controlled media has portrayed Chinese President Xi Jinping's role in reconciling Riyadh and Tehran as part of China's institutional commitment to promoting peace. In a celebratory piece marking the anniversary, Xinhua, a Chinese media outlet, emphasized regional analysts' views highlighting a growing weariness with the West's 'conditional' relationships. Xinhua stated, "Today, China's advocacy for peace continues to resonate with countries in the Middle East."

A superpower refers to a nation that wields significant influence and power on a global scale across various dimensions, including economic, military, technological, cultural, and diplomatic aspects. Superpowers typically can shape international events, influence global policies, and project power far beyond their borders. They often play a central role in shaping the geopolitical landscape and have a substantial impact on global affairs.

Superpowers enjoy several advantages and capabilities that set them apart from other nations

• Military Strength: Superpowers possess advanced military capabilities, including nuclear arsenals, modern weapon systems, and the ability to project power globally through military bases, alliances, and expeditionary forces.
• Economic Influence: Superpowers have robust and diversified economies with significant GDP and trade volumes. They often lead key industries, have access to critical resources, and play a central role in international trade and finance.
• Technological Innovation: Superpowers are leaders in scientific research, innovation, and technological development. They invest heavily in cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence, space exploration, cybersecurity, and advanced manufacturing.
• Diplomatic and Soft Power: Superpowers have extensive diplomatic networks, alliances, and international institutions where they hold significant sway. They also exert influence through cultural exports, media, education, and global initiatives.

2. China's Aspiration to Become a Superpower

• Historical Perspective: China has a long history as a major civilization and seeks to reclaim its historical status as a global power.
• Economic Growth: China's rapid economic growth over the past few decades has elevated its status as a major economic player globally. It aims to continue this growth and become a dominant economic force.
• Geopolitical Ambitions: China seeks to challenge the existing global order dominated by Western powers, particularly the United States. It aims to reshape international norms, institutions, and governance structures to better reflect its interests and influence.
• Security Concerns: As a rising power, China is also focused on enhancing its military capabilities to protect its interests, secure sea lanes for trade, and project power regionally and globally.
• Soft Power and Cultural Influence: China is investing in cultural diplomacy, educational exchanges, media influence, and international initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to enhance its soft power and expand its influence in diverse regions.

3. China's Mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran

• Saudi Arabia and Iran have been regional rivals for decades, often backing opposing sides in proxy wars. Tensions escalated in 2016, leading to severed diplomatic ties.
•  In December 2022, China stepped in as a mediator, offering to host talks between the two nations.
• In March 2023, Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to restore full diplomatic relations and reactivate a security cooperation agreement. This marked a significant shift in regional dynamics.

• Boost its influence: By facilitating a solution, China positioned itself as a key player in the Middle East.
• Challenge US dominance: China seeks to counter US influence in the region and present itself as an alternative partner.
• Secure economic interests: Both Saudi Arabia and Iran are major oil producers critical to China's economy.

The conflict in Gaza, particularly between Israel and Palestinian factions like Hamas, has been a longstanding and complex issue with deep-rooted historical, political, and religious dimensions. 

• The conflict traces its roots back to the mid-20th century with the establishment of the state of Israel in 1948 and subsequent Arab-Israeli wars. The Gaza Strip, a small Palestinian territory bordered by Israel and Egypt, has been a focal point of tension due to disputes over land, resources, and governance.
• Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: The core of the conflict revolves around competing claims to the same land by Israelis and Palestinians. Palestinians seek an independent state with East Jerusalem as its capital, while Israel asserts its right to exist as a Jewish state with secure borders. The status of Palestinian refugees, settlements in the West Bank, security concerns, and control over Gaza are major contentious issues.
• Role of Hamas: Hamas, an Islamist militant group, gained control of Gaza in 2007 after winning elections and subsequently ousting rival Palestinian factions. Hamas is designated as a terrorist organization by several countries and has been involved in armed resistance against Israel, including rocket attacks and clashes along the Gaza-Israel border.
• Israeli Military Operations: Over the years, Israel has conducted military operations in Gaza in response to rocket attacks and security threats posed by Hamas and other militant groups. These operations often involve airstrikes targeting Hamas infrastructure, rocket launch sites, and military installations.
• Humanitarian Concerns: The conflict has led to significant humanitarian challenges, including civilian casualties, displacement, damage to infrastructure, and economic hardships. Gaza, with its densely populated urban areas and limited access to resources due to blockades, faces severe humanitarian crises during periods of heightened conflict.
• International Responses: The international community, including the United Nations, has repeatedly called for peaceful resolutions and ceasefires to end the violence. Various diplomatic efforts, mediation attempts, and peace initiatives have been made over the years, but a lasting solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains elusive.
• Impact on Regional Stability: The conflict in Gaza has broader implications for regional stability, influencing relations between Israel and neighbouring countries, as well as broader Middle East dynamics. It also intersects with global geopolitical interests and issues related to human rights, self-determination, and international law.

5. China's Strategic Goals and Mediation Diplomacy

• Positioning Against Western Interventionism: China aims to establish itself as a counterbalance to decades of perceived Western interventionist policies, particularly in regions like West Asia where historical colonial legacies have contributed to ongoing conflicts.
• Increasing Geopolitical Influence: Another objective is to enhance China's geopolitical weight and credibility as a responsible global actor and major power on the international stage.
• Challenges and Realities in the Gaza Conflict: China's ambitions in mediation diplomacy faced challenges during the Gaza conflict, where it took a clear pro-Arab stance without explicitly condemning Hamas by name. This approach is part of China's strategy to counter long-standing American influence in the region and capitalize on shifts in regional diplomacy, particularly with nations seeking strategic autonomy from Washington DC.
• International Mediation Organization and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): In early 2023, Wang Yi endorsed a plan to establish a new China-backed international mediation organization headquartered in Hong Kong. Several countries signed onto this initiative, including Algeria, Belarus, Cambodia, Djibouti, Indonesia, Laos, Pakistan, Serbia, and Sudan. China aims to link this mediation effort with its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which includes significant participation from countries in West Asia such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
• Israel and Diplomatic Relations: Israel, heavily reliant on the United States for security, is not part of these signatories. However, there have been diplomatic interactions between China and Israel, including an invitation extended to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for a state visit.

6. Red Sea Crisis

The Red Sea crisis is an ongoing conflict that began in October 2023. The crisis is rooted in the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. The Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, at odds with Yemen's internationally recognized government, launched attacks on Israel in response to the Israel-Hamas war.

• The Houthis are the main attackers, targeting commercial ships in the Red Sea with missiles and drones. An international coalition led by the US is defending these ships and has launched counterattacks against Houthi targets in Yemen.
• The attacks have disrupted vital shipping routes in the Red Sea, a critical waterway for global trade. This has led to:

• • Increased danger for seafarers
  • Delays and higher costs for shipping
  • Potential rise in CO2 emissions due to rerouting of ships

• The crisis is ongoing as of March 2024. While the intensity has lessened slightly compared to late 2023, attacks are still happening. There are ongoing efforts to find a diplomatic solution.

7. China's Role in the Red Sea Crisis

• China's stance in the war in Gaza has led to strained relations with Israel, highlighting questions about its role in brokering the Saudi-Iran détente.
• While China may be involved in the process initiated by Riyadh and Tehran, it is more likely to be pulled in rather than actively initiating a deal.
• China has notably stayed absent in the crisis in the Red Sea, where Western naval forces have been active in maintaining trade routes.
• Reports suggest that Chinese and Russian ships were not targeted by Yemen-based Houthis, potentially indicating a diplomatic bypass leveraging China's relationship with Iran.
• China's approach seems geared toward protecting its interests without taking on the role of an influential broker in high-stakes conflicts. This pragmatic stance contrasts with the more assertive positions of other global powers, particularly the United States.
• China's support for the Palestinian cause aligns with broader Arab sentiments while avoiding direct criticism of Hamas. This stance reflects China's strategic positioning in the region, where it prioritizes its interests without seeking direct involvement in mediation efforts or peace brokering.
• China's approach to mediation appears non-aspirational in challenging geopolitical contexts, focusing more on showcasing the perceived drawbacks of Western influence rather than actively seeking to mediate conflicts.

8. China's Strategic Calculations

• Displacing American Hegemony: China's strategic objectives include challenging American hegemony in global affairs. However, rather than aiming to replace it directly, China seems content with diminishing US influence while avoiding assuming a role as a 'soft hegemon' in the region. This approach contrasts with China's previous efforts during the 'war on terror' era to build ties with the US based on shared security concerns.
• Geostrategic Aims and Internal Security: China's foreign policy, particularly in partner states, focuses more on narrow geostrategic aims rather than broader external influence. Scholars like Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Isaac Kardon highlight China's emphasis on internal political security within regimes, such as addressing concerns related to radicalization and terrorism narratives in regions like Xinjiang.
• Perceptions of China as a Superpower: The war in Gaza and China's response reflect its status as a 'want-to-be' superpower. Despite its size and economic influence, China's risk-averse approach and limited alternatives to Western-centric policies have drawn criticism, portraying China's assertiveness as somewhat hollow in certain contexts.
• Limited Solutions and Utilitarian Superpower: China's role in global geopolitics is often seen as offering economic support but lacking comprehensive alternatives to address long-standing geopolitical challenges. This position underscores China's current status as a utilitarian superpower, where other nations hedge against its influence without viewing it as an imminent traditional superpower.

 9. India's Potential as a Superpower

• Demographic Dividend: India has a large and growing population, including a significant youth demographic. If leveraged effectively through education, skill development, and innovation, this demographic dividend can drive economic growth and technological advancements.
• Economic Growth: India has emerged as one of the world's fastest-growing major economies. With a focus on economic reforms, infrastructure development, and innovation, India aims to strengthen its economic prowess and global competitiveness.
• Diplomatic Influence: India maintains strategic partnerships and alliances with various countries and actively participates in international forums. Its diplomatic outreach and contributions to peacekeeping operations enhance its global standing.
• Technological Advancements: India has made strides in technology, especially in sectors like information technology, space exploration, renewable energy, and pharmaceuticals. Continued investment in research and development can bolster India's technological capabilities.
• Soft Power and Cultural Heritage: India's rich cultural heritage, including its traditions, arts, cuisine, and Bollywood, contributes to its soft power. Cultural exchanges, tourism, and educational ties enhance India's global influence.
• Strategic Partnerships: India's strategic partnerships with like-minded countries and its growing role in regional initiatives like the Quad (comprising India, the United States, Japan, and Australia) demonstrate its aspirations for greater influence and leadership in global affairs.

10. Conclusion

China's strategic calculations prioritise challenging Western hegemony, focusing on narrow geostrategic aims, and emphasizing internal security concerns in partner states. However, its role as a superpower remains scrutinized for its risk aversion and limited alternatives to traditional Western policies.