A closer look at Myanmar’s discontent 

1. Escalation of Conflict in Myanmar

In October of the previous year, an alliance comprising the Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and Ta’ang National Liberation Army initiated synchronized attacks on the military, resulting in substantial losses for the military in the Shan State. Notably, Paletwa town, situated on the western borders of the country and a crucial component of India's Kaladan project, is presently under the control of the Arakan Army. Concurrently, regions predominantly inhabited by the majority Bamar ethnic community, including Sagaing, Bago, and Magwe, experienced a notable surge in resistance. During this period, the People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) made advancements against the military.

2. Myanmar

• Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, is a country located in Southeast Asia. It shares borders with Bangladesh, China, India, Laos, and Thailand. The diverse geography includes mountain ranges, plains, and a long coastline along the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea. Yangon (formerly Rangoon) serves as the largest city and former capital, while Naypyidaw is the current capital.
• The population of Myanmar is ethnically diverse, comprising numerous ethnic groups. The majority Bamar ethnic group coexists with various minorities, each contributing to the country's cultural tapestry. Religion, particularly Buddhism, holds a central place in Myanmar's society.
• Myanmar has a rich historical heritage, influenced by various empires and civilizations. The Pagan Empire, which flourished between the 9th and 13th centuries, left behind an extensive archaeological legacy, including the iconic temples of Bagan. The British colonization in the 19th century and its subsequent occupation during World War II significantly shaped Myanmar's modern history.
• Myanmar gained independence from British rule in 1948. However, the post-independence period was marked by internal conflicts, including struggles with ethnic minorities seeking autonomy. Political instability, coupled with military coups, characterized Myanmar's early years as an independent nation.

Military Rule and Democratic Transition

• In 1962, a military coup led to decades of military rule, isolating Myanmar from the international community. Aung San Suu Kyi, the daughter of independence hero Aung San, emerged as a prominent figure advocating for democracy. The 8888 Uprising in 1988 and subsequent elections marked periods of political turmoil.
• In 2011, Myanmar began a process of political reforms, leading to the establishment of a semi-civilian government. Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) won the 2015 elections, signalling a shift towards democracy. However, the military retained significant influence.
• In 2021, Myanmar experienced a military coup, with the military (Tatmadaw) seizing power and detaining civilian leaders, including Aung San Suu Kyi. The coup led to widespread protests, a civil disobedience movement, and clashes between the military and anti-coup demonstrators. The political situation remains fluid, with regional and international implications.

4. India-Myanmar Relations

The diplomatic ties between India and Myanmar have a rich and multifaceted history, characterized by geographic proximity, cultural affinities, and shared strategic interests. The relationship has evolved over the years, encompassing various domains such as trade, security, and cultural exchanges.

• India and Myanmar share deep-rooted historical and cultural connections, with influences from Buddhism, trade routes, and migration patterns shaping their interactions over centuries. The ancient cultural linkages form a strong foundation for contemporary bilateral relations.
• Geopolitically, Myanmar holds a significant position for India, serving as a gateway to Southeast Asia. The two nations have collaborated on various strategic initiatives, including connectivity projects and regional stability efforts. Myanmar's location is crucial for India's Act East Policy, fostering economic and strategic engagements.
• Economic collaboration between India and Myanmar has witnessed growth, encompassing trade, investments, and development projects. Both countries have sought to enhance economic ties through initiatives like the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project, aiming to facilitate smoother connectivity.
• Security cooperation remains a pivotal aspect of the bilateral relationship. Both nations have engaged in dialogues and initiatives to address shared security concerns, including border management and counter-terrorism efforts. Military exchanges and intelligence-sharing contribute to strengthening mutual security interests.
• While the relationship reflects positive aspects, challenges persist, such as ethnic conflicts along the border and issues related to the Rohingya crisis. India navigates a delicate balance in addressing these challenges while fostering collaboration and understanding.
• In the face of the political unrest and humanitarian crisis in Myanmar, India has the opportunity to play a constructive role. By adopting a proactive humanitarian approach, India can contribute to regional stability and address the needs of displaced communities.

5. China's Multi-Layered Strategy

In the current volatile scenario in Myanmar, China has strategically devised a multi-faceted approach to protect its interests. Internationally, China staunchly defends the Myanmar military against global criticism. Concurrently, ethnic armed organizations along Myanmar’s northern border maintain close ties with China, suggesting that the upheaval in Shan State, given its magnitude, likely occurred with Chinese acquiescence. Rumours circulate that Beijing utilized this ethnic alliance to eradicate online scams and criminal syndicates defrauding Chinese citizens, achieving its objectives. A subsequent ceasefire agreement between rebels and the Myanmar army, though in effect, raises uncertainties about its sustainability. Both ethnic armed groups and coup leaders may be uneasy with Beijing's potential to influence their operations.

ASEAN's Limited Impact

As the primary regional player, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has articulated a five-point consensus, withholding a place for the Myanmar military in its summits. Despite persistent endeavours, the ASEAN special envoy to Myanmar faced obstacles in engaging meaningfully with all relevant stakeholders. Consequently, ASEAN's influence on Myanmar's political trajectory remains constrained. Some ASEAN members, deviating from their customary restraint, now openly criticize the Myanmar coup.

Thailand's Role and Regional Influence

With a shared border extending approximately 2,416 km, Thailand holds considerable sway over Myanmar. In the past year, Thailand's Foreign Minister not only engaged with Myanmar's military leadership but also communicated with the detained leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Thailand actively interacts with Myanmar's exile organizations and has recently intensified humanitarian assistance efforts, underscoring its significant regional role.

6. India's Humanitarian Engagement

• To address the ongoing crisis in Myanmar, New Delhi could contemplate a more proactive humanitarian strategy aimed at providing relief to displaced communities. Such an initiative not only aligns with India's commitment to regional stability but could also contribute to stemming the influx of refugees into India. While engaging with Myanmar, India must carefully consider three prevailing political realities.
• The discontent against the coup remains unabated, with the military's vague promises of proportional representation elections yet to materialize due to the challenging task of ensuring stability.
• Despite the absence of a charismatic leader and limited international support, the resistance against the coup has displayed noteworthy resilience over the past years, indicating a sustained opposition.
• Myanmar's political landscape is currently fragmented, with varying degrees of control exerted by the military, ethnic armed organizations, and People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) in different regions. Notably, the military appears to be losing more ground than gaining. Given these dynamics, it might be opportune for India to reassess its Myanmar policy through extensive consultations with all relevant stakeholders.