WHEAT CROP IN INDIA

1. Context

2. Wheat Production

• The unusual heat of March 2022 led to lower wheat production, as the spike in temperatures happened during the grain formation and filling stage when the kernels were accumulating starch and proteins.
• That stage determines the size and weight of the harvested grains were cut short with maximum temperatures crossing 35 degrees Celsius by mid-March.
• While the Agriculture Ministry claimed last year’s wheat output at 107.74 million tonnes (mt) a marginal decline of 1.7% from the all-time-high 109.59 mt of 2020- 21 the private trade estimated the crop to be 10-15% lower at 93-98 mt.
• This was borne out by the government’s own procurement falling to 18.79 mt, as against 43.34 mt in the previous marketing season, and wholesale wheat inflation crossing 20% year-on-year by December even after a ban on exports. 

3. Why has 2022-23 been different?

• If 2021-22 was largely wet, with five consecutive months of excess/surplus rain, 2022-23 was quite the opposite.
• The winter was exceptionally dry, with the four months from November 2022 to February 2023 registering deficient rainfall.
• February 2023 not only recorded 68.3% below-normal rain, but it was also the hottest ever February in terms of the average maximum temperature, just as March was in 2022.

4. About Wheat Crop

• Wheat is a Rabi Crop grown between September and December and harvested between February and May.
• The total area under the crop is about 29.8 million hectares in the country.
• In 2020, wheat production for India was 107,860 thousand tonnes. Wheat production in India increased from 23,832 thousand tonnes in 1971 to 107,860 thousand tonnes in 2020 growing at an average annual rate of 3.42%.
• Indian wheat is largely a soft/medium-hard, medium protein, white bread wheat, somewhat similar to U.S. hard white wheat.
• Durum wheat, often known as pasta wheat or macaroni wheat is also one of the best-quality wheat varieties in India.

5. Major Wheat Producing States

6. Climate Requirement

• The wheat crop has wide adaptability. It can be grown not only in the tropical and subtropical zones but also in the temperate zone and the cold tracts of the far north, beyond event the 60-degree north altitude.
• Wheat can tolerate severe cold and snow and resume growth with the setting in of warm weather in spring. It can be cultivated from sea level to as high as 3300 meters.
• The best wheat are produced in areas favored with cool, moist weather during the major portion of the growing period followed by dry, warm weather to enable the grain to ripen properly.
• The optimum temperature range for ideal germination of wheat seed is 20-25 C though the seeds can germinate in the temperature range of 3.5 to 35 c.
• Rains just after sowing hamper germination and encourage seedling blight. Areas with a warm and damp climate are not suited for wheat growing.
• During the heading and flowering stages, excessively high or low temperatures and droughts are harmful to wheat.
• Cloudy weather, with high humidity and low temperatures, is conducive to rust attack.
• The wheat plant requires about 14-15 C optimum average temperature at the time of ripening. The temperature conditions at the time of grain filling and development are very crucial for yield.
• Temperatures above 250C during this period tend to depress grain weight.
• When temperatures are high, too much energy is lost through the process of transpiration by the plants, and the reduced residual energy results in poorer grain formation and lower yields.

7. Soil

• Wheat is grown in a variety of soils in India. Soils with a clay loam or loam texture, good structure, and moderate water-holding capacity are ideal for wheat cultivation.
• Care should be taken to avoid very porous and excessively drained oils.
• Soil should be neutral in its reaction. Heavy soil with good drainage is suitable for wheat cultivation under the conditions.
• These soils absorb and retain rainwater well. Heavy soils with poor structure and poor drainage are not suitable as wheat is sensitive to water logging.
• Wheat can be successfully grown on lighter soils provided their water and nutrient holding capacity are improved.

8. Will the rain affect wheat yields?

• Wheat is sensitive to both heat stress and rain/thunderstorms during the terminal gain filling and ripening period.
• This is the time when the crop's earheads are heavy with grains.
• The more weight accumulated from grain-filling, the more vulnerable is the crop to rain.
• These, when accompanied by high-velocity winds, make the stems prone to "lodging" or bending and even falling flat on the ground.

9. Would wheat prices go up if production falls?

• It is unlikely because wheat prices at the Chicago Board of Trade futures exchange are now at just over $254 per tonne compared to the $500-plus peaks that were scaled last March.
• Last year’s failed domestic crop came at a time when global commodity prices were on fire following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
• The world has since overcome the effects of the war. Even in the unlikeliest possibility of India’s wheat output falling to the 2021-22 level or lower, a resurgence of cereal inflation looks improbable.

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