TALIBAN

1. Background and historical developments

• December 1979: Soviets invaded Afghanistan to prop up the government, which faced internal rebellion.
• Early 1989: As the Soviet Union disintegrated, the army withdrew, leaving the Afghan forces to take the lead in fighting an American-funded insurgency. US intelligence estimates over 15,000 Soviet troops died in the decade-long war. The Soviets kept advisers with the Afghans and continued financing the military.
• 1992: The American CIA, which backed Afghan rebel groups, withdrew its aid. The Russians also cut its funding. The pro-Russian government was overthrown, and Afghanistan was plunged into a bloody civil war, setting the stage for the Taliban to assume power four years later.
• 1994: The Taliban, or "students" in the Pashto language, emerges from Islamist fighters in Pakistan and Afghanistan who fought against the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan for over a decade. That conflict ended in 1989.
• 1996: After a two-year civil war, most of Afghanistan comes under the control of the Taliban, who institute fundamentalist policies and widespread repression of human rights.

2. The Interventions by Major powers and conditions therein

• The Taliban were removed from power in Afghanistan by US-led forces in 2001, but the group has been on the o ensive in recent months and is now on the brink of seizing power again.
• Terrorists listed with al-Ǫaeda hijack commercial planes to execute terror attacks on the World Trade Center in New York City and the Pentagon outside Washington. The terrorists planned, trained, and directed the attacks from Afghanistan.
• Dec. 17, 2001: U.S. and allied forces have driven the Taliban from power in Afghanistan. Al-Ǫaida disperses.
• April 17, 2002: President George W. Bush calls for a Marshall Plan for Afghanistan.
• March 20, 2003: the U.S. invades Iraq, diverting military resources and attention from Afghanistan.
• Feb. 17, 2009: President Barack Obama recommits U.S. forces to Afghanistan to combat the "resurgent" Taliban.
• March 27, 2009: Obama announces a new strategy for Afghanistan, connecting the return of the group in parts of the country to the Pakistani Taliban. He calls for greater cooperation from Pakistan.
• Dec. 1, 2009: Obama announces 30,000 additional troops will be sent to Afghanistan on top of the 68,000 already stationed in the country in a move later known as "the surge."
• May 2, 2011: Obama announces the U.S. military and CIA agents successfully found and killed Osama bin Laden.
• June 22, 2011: Obama announces troop drawdowns to begin in Afghanistan.
• Dec. 5, 2011: World leaders gather in Bonn, Germany, to discuss how to build a road map for the future of Afghanistan. U.S. and Western allies commit billions in investment to support the development of the Afghan government.
• May 27, 2014: Obama announces plan for full troop withdrawal from Afghanistan by end of 2016.
• Sep. 4, 2014: NATO issued a joint statement, designating that Afghan Security Forces "will assume full responsibility for security" of the country by the end of the year. The international coalition ends its operations in Afghanistan, the U.S. continues its battle.
• Aug. 21, 2017: President Donald Trump cautions against "hasty" troop withdrawal from Afghanistan that "would create a vacuum." Trump said that he shares Americans' "frustration" with foreign wars, assuring that "we are not nation-building again; we are killing terrorists."
• April 14, 2021: President Joe Biden announces that full troop withdrawal from Afghanistan will be complete by Sept. 11.
• May 1: The U.S. begins final troop withdrawal from  Afghanistan.
• Aug. 6: Provincial capitals begin to fall to the Taliban.
• Aug. 8: Provincial capitals Sar-e-Pul, Kunduz, and Taloqan all fall to the Taliban.
• Aug. 11: Fall of provincial capitals of Badakhshan and Baghlan provinces to the northeast and Farah province to the west.
• Aug. 15: Kabul, the national capital, falls to the Taliban. The Afghan president flees the country, the government collapsed, and the fall of Afghanistan.

3. The Powerplay

• The Taliban, or "students" in the Pashto language, emerged in the early 1990s in northern Pakistan following the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan.
• Many senior Taliban leaders reportedly took refuge in the Pakistani city of Ǫuetta, from where they guided the Taliban.
• But the existence of what was dubbed the "Ǫuetta Shura" was denied by Islamabad.
• Despite ever higher numbers of foreign troops, the Taliban gradually regained and then extended their influence in Afghanistan, rendering vast tracts of the country insecure, and violence in the country returned to levels not seen since 2001.
• It is believed that the predominantly Pashtun movement first appeared in religious
• seminaries - mostly paid for by money from Saudi Arabia - which preached a hardline form of Sunni Islam.
• However, in  many  cases  the  Taliban  have  been  able  to  take  over major cities
• without a fight, as government forces surrendered to avoid civilian casualties.
• The promise made by the Taliban - in Pashtun areas straddling Pakistan and Afghanistan - was to restore peace and security and enforce their austere version of Sharia, or Islamic law, once in power.

4. Implications of development in Afghanistan in the middle east

• From 1996 to 2001, when the Taliban last controlled Afghanistan, only three countries recognized their government: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
• Now, with the Taliban facing criticism for human rights violations, its neighbors will be equally hesitant to be associated with their regime.
• Of Middle Eastern states, Qatar is now the closest to the Taliban regime, having hosted its diplomats since 2013. However, it has strong relations with the US and brokered its talks with the Taliban.
• Iran faces challenges. It welcomed the coalition withdrawal and shares a common enemy in Islamic State. However, as a Shia-Muslim majority country, it is also concerned about Afghanistan’s Shia minorities who have historically been persecuted by the Sunni-majority Taliban.
• No state has yet offered the Taliban recognition, but many plan to interact with the group to bring stability. In December 2021, the 57 foreign ministers of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (an international group of Muslim states) pledged only humanitarian support to help stabilize Afghanistan.
• The Taliban has close ties with terrorist groups, including Al-Qaeda. Both the US-led coalition and Afghanistan’s neighbors fear the country will attract terrorists.
• The refugee crisis has the potential to peak in west Asia- Before the Taliban’s victory, the Middle East already hosted around a quarter of the world’s 84 million forcibly displaced people, according to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR).

-Flag of Taliban