MYANMAR EXECUTIONS
Source: Hindu
Myanmar’s Junta executed four pro-democracy activists. The Junta spokesperson called the executions “lawful” and said it was” justice for the people”
WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN MYANMAR SINCE THE COUP IN 2021?
- The military(Tatmadaw) seized power from the democratically elected National League of Democracy (NLD) party in February 2021. The Junta led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing formed the State Administrative Council (SAC).
- Following the coup, Aung San Suu Kyi and several other leaders of the NLD were detained immediately and are still in detention.
- As mass protests, called the spring revolution, against the regime began, a parallel government –the National Unity Government –was formed. It has an armed division known as the People’s Defense Force (PDF) which is supported and trained by several armed ethnic groups. However, they have not been able to make a dent against the Junta’s repressive measures.
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Two of the executed activists have been identified –Ko Jimmy was a 53-year-old veteran of the “88 Movement “student uprising and Ko Phyo Zeya Thaw was a rapper, hip hop artist and a member of the NLD party.
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WHAT LED TO THE LATEST EXECUTIONS?
- There is growing restlessness within Junta for failing to establish control and legitimacy despite being in power since February 2021, which has led to these executions. A section within the Tatmadaw has questioned senior General Min Aung Hlaing’s leadership capabilities compared to his predecessors.
- The second reason could be to boost the morale of the military leadership
- The government is grappling with a resistance movement, ethnic conflict, terror attacks and a failing economy
- According to the World Bank, there had been an 18%economic contraction in the country by the end of September 2021.
- His promises of an election in two years, forming a caretaker government and declaring himself as a Prime Minister in August 2021 have failed to appease people
- Third, perhaps the regime sees the global focus on Ukraine (and Sri Lanka) as an opportunity to carry out something in its backyard.
WILL THE EXECUTIONS REDUCE THE HOSTILITY OR LEAD TO A FLARE-UP?
- The opposition led by the PDF is likely to increase Calling the executions unforgivable, the Deputy Foreign Minister of the NUG said:” the Junta will have to pay the price legally. The execution has made us more determined to topple the regime. Both the activist were youth ions and prominent leaders of the pro-democracy movement.
- Will the execution impact the ethnic conflict between the groups? Unlikely the equation between the ethnic groups and the Junta is likely to remain unstable; however, the equation between the ethnic groups is less likely to be impacted because of the executions.
INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE
- Regionally, the strongest voice has been from Cambodia, the chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), of which Myanmar is a member.
- Sanctions are not new to Min Aung Hlaing and his Ministers. Successive military regimes have resisted external pressure –both from within the region and the rest of the world. The Senior General did not budge to honour ASEAN’s five-point consensus for the peace and stability of Myanmar, although he agreed to implement that in a regional meeting in April 2021.
- Beside there is support for the regime from its allies. Russia has strongly supported the Junta since the coup.
- China, the Junta’s oldest ally, was one of the first to give it de facto recognition after the coup.
- The support from Russia and China was also projected by the United Nations Security Council.
- China has a high stake in Myanmar due to its infrastructural projects and investments. It also wishes to avoid conflict within its borders
- Among ASEAN members, Thailand's proximity to the Junta is a known fact.
SO WHAT DO THESE EXECUTIONS MEAN FOR DEMOCRACY?
- Democracy will remain a farfetched dream for Myanmar. Although Min Aung Hlaing promised elution by 2023 it is unlikely to happen.
- If the opposition continues despite executions, the Junta will conduct a general election which will be a repeat of 2011. The Tatmadaw’s proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) may come back to power through a rigged election.
