ETHIOPIAN ETHNIC CRISIS

1. Context

The first formal African Union-led peace talks between an Ethiopian government team and Tigray forces (since the war of 2020 with Tigray), in South Africa

2. Ethiopian History

2.1.Aksumite Kingdom

From its origins in the Aksumite kingdom and a successor line of kings which eventually led to the ‘Solomonic line, to a period of ethnic migrations marked by warfare, Ethiopia was an imperial state that gradually weakened over the course of the next two centuries with the emergence of regional and religious rivalries.

2.2.1850 Onwards

•  There was a mix of warfare and nation-building under the reigns of the emperors, notably Menelik and later Haile Selassie, to the regime of Mengistu Haile Mariam, and later the Transitional Government of Ethiopia (TGE) under soldier-politician Meles Zenawi beginning in 1991.
•  It was during the Menelik reign that Ethiopia grew in size, with his moment of glory is the defeat of an Italian invasion force that was attempting to colonize the country.
•  The first Italo-Ethiopian war and the Battle of Adwa (1895-1896) were a Watershed moment in continental history that marked the defeat of a colonial force.
• Menelik’s astuteness enabled the Treaty of Addis Ababa (1896), where Italy recognized the country’s absolute independence.
• Haile Selassie who became the emperor in 1930, ushered in a phase of modernity only to be impeded briefly by the next Italo-Ethiopian war (1935-36).
• Following his return from exile to Addis Ababa in 1941, he commenced military and political changes that were the catalyst for social and economic development.
• However, these changes triggered his unpopularity which resulted in the overthrow of the Ethiopian monarchy in 1974.
• The Marxist dictatorship of Mengistu Haile Mariam that swept in resulted in the Derg unleashing a reign of terror, also known as the Ethiopian Red Terror. Agricultural productivity fell and famine followed.
• Even though dissent was snuffed out, the regime was up against armed insurgencies, especially in the northern part of the country, the embers of which were burning since the 1960s.

2.3.Insurgency years

• A significant insurgency followed in the 1970s, in Tigray, where the Meles Zenawi-led Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), rebelled against the military government and its policies.
•  It was the backing of the then Soviet Union and allies that propped up both the armed forces and the Mengistu government, but this support began to dissipate in the 1980s, influencing the course of conflicts with the Eritreans and Tigray.
• Within a decade, by 1991, there was much change: a majority of Eritrea was in the hands of the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF), while in Ethiopia it was the TPLF.
• The TPLF was a key constituent of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition. Following Mengistu’s exile in Zimbabwe (1991), the EPLF, in May, proclaimed the formation of the Provisional Government of Eritrea (PGE), while the EPRDF assumed control in Addis
• Ababa (capital city of Ethiopia). It needs to be mentioned that Ethiopia and Eritrea would have to maintain good ties, mainly for economic reasons.

3.Formation of Modern Ethiopia

• In the interim government formation, the EPRDF chose political groups that led to the establishment of the TGE. There was an EPLF-EPRDF agreement over the use of the Aseb port linked to a referendum on Eritrean self-determination.
•  The government was made up of the offices of the President, the Prime Minister, a multiethnic Council of Ministers, and a Council of Representatives which was to draft a Constitution.
• Political representation saw the presence of the Oromos, the Tigray's and other groups. A significant aspect of the 'National Charter' was the recognition of ethnicity to enable local and regional governments under the umbrella of a ‘federated Ethiopia’.
•  It was a bridge to create a viable government and allow representation to ethnic groupings. As a part of the administration, the TGE came up with autonomous regions linked to ethnic identification, and two multi-ethnic cities, one of them being Addis Ababa.
• The largest ethnicities, namely the Amhara, Oromo, Somali, and Tigray, had their regions. Each region had districts or weredas resulting in several hundred weredas across Ethiopia.
• The central government oversaw defense, international diplomacy, economic policy, and monetary issues, while the weredas were concerned with legislative and judicial matters.
• Thus, the regions created were: Afar; Amhara; Benishangul- Gumuz; Gambella; Oromia; Sidama; Somali; South West Ethiopia Peoples’ Region; Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR); Tigray, and Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa, the cities.
•  A 2019 referendum in the Sidama region of SNNPR resulted in a Sidama region (2020), while a South West Ethiopia Region followed in 2021.
• The Zenawi administration initiated a market-oriented economy that saw the appearance of private participation.

4.Issues

1. Some of the issues the TGE confronted were the addressing of human rights records.
2. Rehabilitating a vast band of 'armed forces and former military personnel which resulted in clashes between government forces, former soldiers, and insurgent groups
3.  There was a refugee issue too, of a south Sudanese presence in the western Ethiopian region.
4. Ethnic politics and overcoming economic hurdles need to be addressed
5.  The Tigrayans, trying to control the country, form about 6% of thePopulation, consider Tigray to be the cradle of Ethiopian civilization, and therefore the heirs of the culture. The Amhara, the country’s second-largest group, have dominated Ethiopian politics. And the Oromo, the country’s largest group, express discontentment over land issues

5.Foreign Influence

1. Chinese presence is prominent in infrastructure creation such as buildings, roads and bridges and even rail linking and creating port access.
2.  In contrast, the Indian presence, which strengthened during the Haile Selassie era, is seen more in human resources such as education services.
3. However, amidst the ‘focus’ on ‘unity amidst ‘diversity’, the Abiy government once again confronts conflicts between the country’s ethnic factions: Amhara and the Tigrayan conflicts over territory, Oromo groups, and the brutality of militias against the Amhara. Also linked to the Tigrayan tensions is the mega hydro project on the Blue Nile, the 6,450 MW Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, or GERD, Africa's largest hydroelectric facility.
4. It is a few hundred kilometers away from the Tigrayan border and upstream and east of the border with Sudan.
5. There is a threat of regional disquiet with Sudan and Egypt which depend on the Nile and fear restrictions to water use. The conflict with Tigray worries the world as it could spill beyond the borders and ignite a crisis in northeast Africa.