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General Studies 3 >> Economy

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DOLLARISATION OF ECONOMY

DOLLARISATION

 
 
1. Context
Javier Milei, the recent winner of Argentina’s presidential election, has drawn attention for his unconventional and worrying views, such as his opposition to abortion and his ambivalent attitude towards the torture and undemocratic excesses of Argentina’s military government.
The self-confessed “anarcho-capitalist” pledged in his campaign to replace Argentina’s currency the peso with the dollar, to eliminate the Central Bank and to slash government
spending.
Supporters of presidential candidate Javier Milei gather outside his campaign headquarters after his opponent, Economy Minister Sergio Massa, conceded defeat in the presidential runoff election, in Buenos Aires, Argentina on November 19. Supporters of presidential candidate Javier Milei gather outside his campaign headquarters after his opponent, Economy Minister Sergio Massa, conceded defeat in the presidential runoff election, in Buenos Aires, Argentina on November 19. Supporters of presidential candidate Javier Milei gather outside his campaign headquarters after his opponent, Economy Minister Sergio Massa, conceded defeat in the presidential runoff election, in Buenos Aires, Argentina on November 19.
2. What is Dollarisation?
  • Dollarization refers to the adoption of the United States dollar (USD) as the official currency or as a widely used medium of exchange in a country that typically has its own national currency. In dollarized economies, the local currency might still exist, but the US dollar is commonly used for transactions, savings, and as a unit of account
  • Dollarization offers a potential remedy for hyperinflation by severing the connection between escalating prices and an expanding money supply.
  • By substituting domestic currency with the US dollar, advocates argue that it becomes harder for political entities to manipulate money supply for their own agenda.
  • This shift could temper the continual surge in prices as accessing currency becomes more challenging, curbing consumer demand.
  • Additionally, dollarization can yield positive impacts on economic growth. In smaller economies, access to dollars primarily occurs through foreign trade or capital influxes, encouraging a focus on boosting exports and creating friendlier conditions for foreign investment.
  • This stability in the dollar's value enables both local and foreign economic players to devise long-term strategies for economic activities, which would otherwise be impractical with a rapidly depreciating currency
3. Impacts of Dollarisation on the Economy
  • It can bring stability to an economy facing high inflation or currency volatility by introducing a more stable currency. This stability can attract foreign investment and potentially reduce borrowing costs.
  • Adopting the US dollar means relinquishing control over monetary policy. The country loses the ability to adjust interest rates or influence the money supply, which can limit its flexibility in responding to economic challenges.
  • The government loses the ability to earn seigniorage (profits from issuing currency) when using a foreign currency like the dollar. This could impact government revenue.
  • Dollarization allows for better long-term economic planning due to the stability of the dollar. Businesses and individuals can make more reliable forecasts and investments
  • The economy becomes highly dependent on the US economy and its monetary policy. Economic shocks or policy changes in the US can significantly affect the dollarized country
  • Dollarization can lead to income distribution issues. Those with USD-denominated income or savings might benefit, while others relying on local currency might face challenges if the local currency depreciates against the dollar
  • Dollarization can potentially simplify international trade and investment, as the dollar is widely accepted globally. However, it might also affect the competitiveness of exports due to changes in exchange rates
  • Dollarization can create challenges for financial inclusion, as some segments of the population might find it harder to access or utilize a foreign currency
  • There are some potential problems. The adoption of dollars as a currency implies that economies lose an important source of policy leverage, with monetary policy now unable to control money supply.
  • On the foreign trade front, countries would no longer be able to take recourse to depreciation to boost exports, focusing only on export promotion to stave off downturns.
  • Some proponents of dollarisation see this as a positive outcome, since it would ensure the government resorts to productivity-boosting methods to combat recessions, instead of changing exchange rates
4. Examples of Dollarisation in Economies

Some prominent cases include:

Ecuador: One of the most notable examples of dollarization. In 2000, Ecuador officially adopted the US dollar as its official currency after a severe financial crisis. The switch to the dollar helped stabilize the economy, brought down inflation, and restored confidence in the monetary system.

Zimbabwe: During a period of hyperinflation, Zimbabweans started using foreign currencies, especially the US dollar, due to the collapse of their own currency. While not an official dollarization, the USD became the de facto currency for everyday transactions.

El Salvador: In 2001, El Salvador replaced its national currency with the US dollar to stabilize its economy and attract foreign investment. This move was accompanied by various challenges and adjustments.

Panama: Though not technically dollarized, Panama uses the US dollar alongside its national currency, the Balboa, which is pegged at a 1:1 exchange rate with the US dollar. This system has contributed to stability in the country's economy.

Montenegro and Kosovo: Both countries unilaterally adopted the euro as their official currency without being part of the Eurozone. While not using the dollar, they illustrate a similar process of adopting a foreign currency as a means of stabilizing their economies.

5. Way forward
Dollarisation, therefore, is not a silver bullet, but if used well in conjunction with nimble domestic policy, can offer a route to success. But with a president-elect who brandishes a chainsaw to indicate his desire to slash government spending, and who has asserted that he will abolish the Central Bank, policy in Argentina might find its sphere reduced under the Milei administration. The world awaits the results of yet another macroeconomic gamble played out on the backs of a suffering populace
 
 

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