CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL
| KEY POINT • Globally, the risk of strong tropical cyclones is expected to become more than double by 2050. |
Explanation
The cyclone severity is categorized based on wind speeds, with Category 1 being the weakest and category 5 being the strongest.
2.1-3.1% of the total number of tropical cyclones expected to strike in the near future, could be strong.
Tropical storms that initially formed more towards the open waters of Bay of Bengal are likely to form in regions that lie relatively closer to the Indian and Sri Lankan coasts due to climate change, the study predicted.
Climate change will have opposite effects on the frequency of strong tropical cyclones along the western and eastern coasts of India by 2050. The frequency will reduce in the Bay of Bengal, traditionally known for its powerful storms, while it will increase in the Arabian Sea, a calmer water body.
According to experts-
- The shift of cyclones from Bay of Bengal to the Arabian Sea, may make landfall sooner, shortening the time needed to intensify into category 3 or category 4 tropical cyclones.
- In states like Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, cyclones can be weaker compared to 1980-2017 climate conditions, as they had less time to intensify higher intensities.
- On the other hand, the Arabian Sea is likely to see opposite impact.
- There is a slight increase in probabilities of intense tropical cyclones like Mumbai, Muscat.
- An increase in Arabian Sea tropical cyclone activity is not unusual. A 2021 study noted a 52% increase I the increase in the frequency of cyclonic storms on the west coast.
GLOBAL CHANGES
• The risk of increase in strong cyclones is expected more than double by 2050, globally.
• Hongkong and South Pacific showed the largest increase in the probability of cyclones, whereas the Gulf of Mexico doesn’t seem effected.
• Maximum wind speeds could go up by around 20%.
• Countries which witness rare tropical cyclones like- Cambodia, Laos, Mozambique, pacific island nations like Tonga, Solomon Islands might see an uptick in the strong events.
• Weaker tropical cyclones and tropical storms, however, are likely to become less common in most parts of the world.
According to World Meteorological Organization, roughly 80-100 tropical cyclones are formed globally, most of which never make landfall. Over the past 50 years, tropical cyclones have killed 779,324 people and caused billions of dollars loss.
These predictions identified hotspot regions may face a high tropical cyclone and helping to map the changing flood risk in tropical cyclone regions. It may also help governments, organizations take stock risks to minimize loss of life and economic damages.
These predictions identified hotspot regions may face a high tropical cyclone and helping to map the changing flood risk in tropical cyclone regions. It may also help governments, organizations take stock risks to minimize loss of life and economic damages.
