ANTI-SATELLITE WEAPON
1. Context
On February 14 2024, the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives, Mike Turner, called the media’s attention to “information concerning a serious national security threat” and urged President Joe Biden to declassify it so more experts could be recruited to mitigate the danger it allegedly posed. A flurry of news reports followed, quoting various sources and referring to some kind of Russian space-based weapon
2.What are anti-satellite weapons?
- Weapons known as anti-satellite (ASAT) are crafted to incapacitate or obliterate satellites that are presently circling the Earth and functioning.
- The violation of the Outer Space Treaty (OST) occurs through Article VII, which holds signatories responsible for harming the satellites of other parties, and Article IX, which urges parties to abstain from causing "harmful contamination" in space.
- The Soviet Union, now represented by Russia, has possessed ASAT capabilities since at least 1968. Despite the initial impetus of the Cold War leading to ASAT weapon tests on both sides of the Atlantic, these programs persisted even after diplomatic relations improved.
- The majority of these weapons are kinetic, indicating that they destroy orbiting satellites either by colliding with them or by detonating explosives in close proximity, resulting in fragmentation.
- Due to the negligible gravity and absence of atmosphere in space, the resulting debris can linger in orbit for an extended period, a circumstance that contravenes Article IX of the OS
3. Are there space-based nuclear weapons?
- In a high-altitude experiment known as Starfish Prime in 1962, the United States deployed a thermonuclear bomb at an altitude of 400 km above the Earth's surface. This event stands as the most extensive nuclear test ever conducted in space.
- Using a Thor rocket, the warhead was launched to a location west of Hawaii, where its detonation produced a yield of 1.4 megatonnes. Notably, the explosion generated a much larger electromagnetic pulse (EMP) than anticipated by physicists, causing damage to several hundred streetlights in Hawaii, which was located 1,500 km away.
- The charged particles and radiation released during the blast became entangled and accelerated by the Earth's magnetic field, leading to distortions in the ionosphere and the occurrence of vivid aurorae.
- Starfish Prime constituted one of the high-altitude nuclear tests conducted by the United States in 1962. During a similar timeframe, the Soviet Union also conducted comparable tests with analogous consequences.
- For instance, in Test 184 on October 22, 1962, a 300-kilotonne warhead detonated 290 km above the Earth's surface. The resulting EMP induced a significantly high current in over 500 km of electrical cables, eventually sparking a fire that resulted in the destruction of a power plant
4. How will a nuclear weapon affect satellites?
- The primary risks posed to satellites by a space-based nuclear weapon include the electromagnetic pulse (EMP) and the release of charged particles.
- Starfish Prime, for instance, temporarily disabled approximately one-third of all satellites in orbit during its detonation, highlighting a concern applicable to the present situation.
- An EMP originating from a nuclear weapon in space has the potential to impact satellites within its vicinity, affecting not only Russian satellites but also those of strategic allies like China and nations not involved in a specific conflict. Such an event would also constitute a significant violation of the Outer Space Treaty (OST).
- Depending on the strength, location, and direction of the explosion, it could result in the destruction of a substantial number of satellites, surpassing the impact of a conventional kinetic Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapon.
- Scott Tilley, known for tracking down 'lost' satellites, noted that the damage to most satellites is not immediate but is caused by the formation of new and intensified radiation belts.
- Researchers have been exploring methods to mitigate disturbances caused by space-based nuclear explosions in radiation belts through a process known as radiation-belt remediation.
- However, this could lead to an accumulation of inactive satellites and debris, raising concerns about the Kessler effect.
- When a certain threshold of debris is reached in low-earth orbit, collisions among debris and other satellites may generate more debris, resulting in a "collisional cascade" that rapidly increases orbital debris.
- Additionally, there is the historical example of the Soviet Union's attempt in 1987 to launch a rocket carrying a high-power laser capable of targeting and destroying other satellites, powered by nuclear energy.
- Although the launch failed, the possibility of similar endeavors, as suggested by Marco Langbroek, a lecturer at Delft Technical University in the Netherlands, remains a concern
5.Way Forward
Contemporary society relies significantly on satellites, presenting them as both valuable assets and potential weaknesses. However, the effectiveness of a nuclear weapon in space is constrained by the inability to selectively target specific satellites, limiting its practical utility. Consequently, certain security experts propose that if Russia possesses nuclear capabilities in space, such weaponry would likely be reserved for use as a last resort. Alternatively, some suggest that the 'nuclear' aspect might be confined to the power source itself. The prevailing view is that Russia is more likely developing a system fueled by a nuclear source with electronic warfare capabilities upon reaching orbit, rather than a weapon equipped with a nuclear explosive warhead
Source: The Hindu
