INDIA-PAKISTAN

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INDIA-PAKISTAN

 

Indo-Pak Relations: Border Dispute and J&K Issue

 
 
Terrorism emanating from Pakistan
 

Terrorism emanating from Pakistan has been a significant concern for both regional and global security. Over the years, various terrorist groups operating from within Pakistan's borders have been implicated in attacks targeting not only India but also Afghanistan and other neighboring countries. It's important to note that while certain factions within Pakistan have taken steps to combat terrorism, the issue remains complex and multifaceted.

Key Points:

  • Pakistan has been accused of supporting and harboring militant groups as part of a strategy of proxy warfare against its neighbors, particularly India. Non-state actors with links to extremist ideologies have found a safe haven in the country
  • The roots of the issue can be traced back to historical conflicts, including the Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan, which has fueled tensions and provided a backdrop for extremist elements to exploit
  • Pakistan has played a complex role in the Afghan conflict, with allegations of support for the Afghan Taliban. The porous border between Pakistan and Afghanistan has facilitated the movement of militants across the region
  • The international community, including the United States, has expressed concerns about Pakistan's role in providing safe havens to terrorist groups. This has led to diplomatic pressures and calls for Pakistan to take decisive action against such elements
  • Pakistan itself has faced the brunt of terrorism, with attacks perpetrated by various militant groups within its borders. The Pakistani government has undertaken military operations to counter these internal threats
  • While Pakistan has taken some steps to address terrorism, including military operations and legislative measures, there are ongoing debates about the effectiveness and sincerity of these efforts
  • International cooperation is crucial in addressing terrorism emanating from Pakistan. Collaborative efforts among nations, intelligence sharing, and diplomatic engagement are essential to curb the activities of transnational terrorist networks
  • Terrorism has had severe humanitarian consequences, leading to loss of lives, displacement of populations, and hindering socio-economic development in the affected regions
 
Indus waters policy shift
 

Background:

  • The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960 governs water sharing between India and Pakistan for the Indus River system.
  • The treaty divides the six rivers of the Indus system: three eastern rivers (Beas, Ravi, Sutlej) are allocated to India, and three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) are allocated to Pakistan, with some limited use allowed for the other party.
  • Both countries have a permanent Indus Water Commission to resolve disputes and exchange data.

Potential Shifts:

  • India's utilization: Traditionally, India hasn't utilized its full share of Indus waters, leaving more for Pakistan than required by the treaty. However, concerns exist about rising water demands in India, leading to potential changes in utilization patterns.
  • Project development: Recent years have seen India reviving previously shelved projects on its allocated rivers, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir, raising concerns in Pakistan about potential impacts on water flow.
  • Political tensions: Tensions between India and Pakistan can influence interpretations and implementation of the treaty. Incidents like the Pulwama attack in 2019 led to India temporarily suspending meetings with the Indus Commission.
Indus Waters Treaty

The Indus Waters Treaty is a water-sharing agreement between India and Pakistan, facilitated by the World Bank, signed on September 19, 1960. The treaty allocates the waters of the Indus River system among the two countries. The Indus River system is one of the largest and most significant river systems in the world, comprising the Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej rivers.

Key features of the Indus Waters Treaty:

  • The treaty primarily deals with the waters of the three western rivers - Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. The three eastern rivers - Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej - were allocated to India
  • India is granted exclusive use of the waters of the eastern rivers for agricultural and other purposes. Pakistan, on the other hand, has exclusive use of the western rivers with certain allowances for India to use a specified amount of water from the western rivers for non-consumptive uses.
  • The treaty established the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC), consisting of Indus Commissioners from both India and Pakistan. The PIC facilitates the sharing of data and discussions on the implementation of the treaty. It plays a crucial role in preventing and resolving disputes related to the interpretation and application of the treaty
  • The treaty provides mechanisms for dispute resolution. If disagreements arise, they can be referred to a Neutral Expert or to the International Court of Arbitration, as outlined in the treaty
  • Both countries agreed not to undertake any projects that would obstruct the flow of the rivers in a way that would be harmful to the other
  • The treaty allows for the future development of the allocated rivers within certain specified guidelines. This includes the construction of hydroelectric power plants and other projects, subject to specific conditions and notifications
 
The Indus Waters Treaty has endured despite periods of tension and conflict between India and Pakistan. It is often considered one of the most successful international water-sharing agreements. However, challenges and disagreements have arisen from time to time, leading to the use of the dispute resolution mechanisms outlined in the treaty. Regular meetings and communication through the Permanent Indus Commission help address operational and technical matters related to the rivers' shared management
 

 
Dispute over Gilgit-Baltistan
 

Background:

  • Gilgit-Baltistan is a region strategically located in the Himalayas, bordering Pakistan, India, China, and Afghanistan.
  • It was originally part of the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir before the partition of India and Pakistan in 1947.
  • In 1947, following the partition, the Gilgit Scouts, led by a British officer, rose in rebellion against the Maharaja of Jammu and Kashmir and acceded to Pakistan.
  • India claims Gilgit-Baltistan as part of its territory based on the Maharaja's accession and subsequent UN resolutions calling for a plebiscite in Kashmir.
  • Pakistan maintains that the people of Gilgit-Baltistan have the right to self-determination and have democratically chosen to be part of Pakistan.

Key Parties & Stances:

  • India: Claims Gilgit-Baltistan as illegally occupied territory, considers it part of Jammu and Kashmir. Opposes China's involvement in the region.
  • Pakistan: Administers Gilgit-Baltistan as a semi-autonomous region, denies claims of illegal occupation. Opposes any third-party intervention.
  • China: Has ceded a portion of Gilgit-Baltistan (Shaksgam Valley) from Pakistan through the 1963 agreement, considers it disputed territory with India. Opposes Indian claims and supports Pakistan's stance.
  • People of Gilgit-Baltistan: Views on political affiliation vary within the region. Some advocate for greater autonomy or self-determination, while others support integration with Pakistan.
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
 

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a major infrastructure project that aims to connect Gwadar Port in southwestern Pakistan to China's northwestern region of Xinjiang, through a network of highways, railways, and pipelines. The corridor passes through various regions, including parts of Pakistan-administered Kashmir, which is also referred to as Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) by India.

The specific route of the CPEC includes infrastructure development in the Gilgit-Baltistan region, which is a part of the larger Kashmir region and is administered by Pakistan. The project has raised geopolitical concerns and objections, particularly from India, as it involves infrastructure development in territories that are subject to territorial disputes between India and Pakistan.

India has consistently expressed its objection to the CPEC passing through parts of PoK, asserting that such projects infringe upon its sovereignty. The issue contributes to the broader complexities of the India-Pakistan relationship, which includes disputes over the territorial status of Kashmir.

Pakistan and China, however, maintain that the CPEC is an economic project aimed at promoting regional connectivity, economic development, and trade. They argue that the initiative is not intended to prejudge the final status of the territories through which it passes.

The CPEC has been a focal point in regional geopolitics, and its development and implications continue to be subjects of discussion and debate among the concerned nations and the broader international community

What are CPEC’s Implications for India?

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has several implications for India, and its development has been a source of concern and contention in the bilateral relations between India, Pakistan, and China.
 
Here are some key implications:
  • The route of the CPEC passes through parts of Pakistan-administered Kashmir, which is a region that India claims as part of its territory. India asserts that the project infringes upon its sovereignty and territorial integrity, contributing to tensions between India and Pakistan
  • India views the CPEC as part of a broader Chinese strategy to increase its influence in the region and create a network of infrastructure that may enhance China's geopolitical and economic leverage. India is concerned about the potential strategic encirclement as China deepens its involvement in the Indian subcontinent
  • The CPEC passes through regions with security challenges, including parts of Balochistan in Pakistan. India has expressed concerns about the security implications of the project, both in terms of potential terrorist activities and the militarization of the region
  • The development of the CPEC has implications for the broader stability of the region. It is seen as contributing to the geopolitical dynamics in South Asia and the Indian Ocean region, impacting the balance of power
  • The economic development facilitated by the CPEC could potentially alter trade routes and economic dynamics in the region. India is keenly aware of the economic competition and the impact it might have on its own economic interests and influence in the region
  • While India has concerns about the specific route of the CPEC, it also recognizes the importance of infrastructure development and connectivity in the region. India has pursued its own initiatives, such as the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), to enhance regional connectivity
  • The CPEC has broader diplomatic and geopolitical implications, including China's increasing role in the affairs of the Indian subcontinent. India has sought to counterbalance Chinese influence through its own diplomatic initiatives and partnerships
  • The international community, including major powers, closely watches the developments related to the CPEC. India has raised its concerns at various international forums, seeking support for its position on the territorial issues associated with the project
Nuclear India-Pak-US
 

The nuclear relationship between India, Pakistan, and the United States is a complex and sensitive one, fraught with historical tensions, strategic rivalries, and potential flashpoints. Here's a breakdown of the key aspects:

India and Pakistan:

  • Both countries possess nuclear weapons, with India estimated to have around 164 warheads and Pakistan around 170.
  • They have a long history of conflict, primarily over the disputed territory of Kashmir.
  • Neither country has a declared "no first use" policy, raising concerns about accidental escalation or miscalculation.

India and the US:

  • The US and India have developed a closer strategic partnership in recent years, driven by shared concerns about China's growing influence.
  • The US has provided India with advanced military technology and intelligence, but remains cautious about directly interfering in India-Pakistan disputes.
  • The 2008 US-India Civil Nuclear Agreement aimed to boost India's civilian nuclear program while curbing proliferation concerns

Pakistan and the US:

  • The US has a complex relationship with Pakistan, having been a close ally during the Cold War but facing challenges later due to concerns about terrorism and nuclear proliferation.
  • The US maintains military and economic ties with Pakistan but also pressures them to combat terrorism and improve relations with India
 
Aspect India Pakistan United States
Nuclear Weapons Status Conducted first test in 1974; declared nuclear-armed in 1998 Conducted first nuclear tests in 1998 in response to India Complex history; closer ties with Pakistan during Cold War; U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Agreement in 2008
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Not a signatory to NPT Not a signatory to NPT Signatory to NPT; involved in non-proliferation efforts
Civil Nuclear Agreement with the U.S. Signed U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Agreement in 2008 N/A Signed U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Agreement in 2008
Counterterrorism Cooperation Engages in counterterrorism cooperation Engages in counterterrorism cooperation Seeks cooperation on counterterrorism efforts
Strategic Stability N/A Emphasizes the need for a strategic balance in the region N/A
Non-Proliferation Concerns N/A Faces concerns about nuclear proliferation Involved in efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation
Historical Context Cold War strain due to non-alignment policy Closer ties during Cold War; shift in post-Cold War era Complex history; shift in post-Cold War era
Current Dynamics Engages with the international community on nuclear issues Proposes arms control measures with India Encourages dialogue and confidence-building measures
 
 
Indian stance regarding Baluchistan
 
India has historically expressed concern and interest in the situation in Balochistan, a region located in southwestern Pakistan. The region is characterized by a complex socio-political landscape and has witnessed occasional conflicts.
 
India's stance on Balochistan can be understood in the following context:
 
  • India has raised concerns about alleged human rights violations in Balochistan, including issues related to enforced disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and suppression of political dissent. Indian officials have, at various international forums, highlighted the need for addressing human rights issues in the region
  • India has accused Pakistan of supporting and harboring militant groups, some of which are active in Balochistan. India's concerns about terrorism and insurgency in the region have been linked to its broader concerns about cross-border terrorism and support for non-state actors
  • Some Indian leaders and officials have expressed support for Baloch activists and leaders who seek greater autonomy or independence for Balochistan. India's support has been largely diplomatic and rhetorical, emphasizing the principles of human rights and self-determination
  • Balochistan's strategic location, its resource-rich landscape, and its importance in the context of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) have contributed to India's interest in the region. The CPEC, a major infrastructure project, passes through Balochistan, and India has expressed reservations about the corridor
  • India has raised the issue of Balochistan at international forums, including at the United Nations, to draw attention to alleged human rights abuses and the situation in the region. India's stance is often framed within the broader context of advocating for democratic values and principles
 

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