EURO VS DOLLAR
Source: indianexpress
Context: The euro value has fallen to its lowest of 1$ which means foreign investments are taking flight. In this scenario how does it affect the Indian rupee?
Background
In terms of the exchange rate, one Euro became equal to one US dollar. This is only the second time since 2002 that the euro has fallen this low to a dollar. The weakening in the euro against the dollar shows that investors are pulling out money from the Eurozone and into the US.
WHY IS THE EURO LOSING VALUE AGAINST THE DOLLAR
- Broadly speaking, the euro has been becoming weak against the dollar since the start of 2008. However, since the start of 2021, the decline has been sharp
- The latest blow to the exchange rate has come from the energy crisis in the wake of Russia's war against Ukraine.
- The reason for the euro’s continued weakness against the dollar can be broken into two parts
- One of the weaknesses of the Euro zone’s economy
- Second, the difference in the monetary policy response between the US and European central banks
- On the economic front, the covid -19 pandemic and the fiscal response to counter it had left the eurozone with a weak economy facing historically high inflation.
- In this moment of weakness, Russia’s war on Ukraine and the consequent ban on Russian energy have left the European economies completely vulnerable
- Europe was completely dependent on Russia's oil and gas and the unprecedented spike in energy prices has not only created a cost of living crisis for common people but also raised questions in the minds of investors about the viability of future investments in the Eurozone
- For instance, Germany, the biggest Eurozone economy, May registered its first trade deficit since 1991. It makes more sense for the companies to shift base to the US, which is far more independent in energy terms.
- The second reason is the monetary policy response by the European Central Bank (ECB). It is completely different from the response of the US Fed, which has made it clear that it will not stop until inflation, which is also at multi-decade highs in the US, comes back to the target rate of 2%
- As such the Fed is aggressively raising interest rates, even if that brings in a recession. The ECB by contrast has not moved.
- Faced with the scenario where raising interest rates (to control inflation) may dampen the economic recovery, the ECB has not raised rates. This has created another big reason for the money to flow out of the US because it offers better investment returns.
WHY IS THE DOLLAR APPRECIATING EVEN WHEN THE US IS FACING A RECESSION?
- The dollar remains the safest bet for global investors and news outside the US economy is worse than it is in the US
- The weakness in the euro against the dollar should also be seen as part of the larger story where the US dollar is gaining against all currencies of the world –be it the euro or the Japanese yen or the Indian rupee.
- The Indian rupee despite continued weakness has shown more resilience against the dollar than most other currencies. A case in point is the fact that the rupee has sharply appreciated against the euro since the start of 2022. It was close to 90 at the start and is now close to 80 a euro.
HOW WILL THAT EURO FALL HELP THE RUPEE?
- At the moment, the rupee has appreciated considerably and as such, Indians holidaying in Europe will find it cheaper to travel.
- However if the Euro continues to stay weak and trend below parity, it will also take the rupee down with it.
- If the Euro continues to weaken, the rupee, which is already just a whisker away from 80 to a dollar, will further weaken against the dollar. That’s because the euro had immense trade linkages with India and similar emerging economies.
- Rupee has done better than the euro against the dollar because the RBI has intervened in a manner to ensure the rupee stays that way.
