CRISIS IN EUROPE

1.Context

 The 27 heads of European Union nations gathered in Brussels for a two-day meeting, and on their agenda is the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis that has sent their economies reeling.

2.Strategic Revolution

• European nations buried deep differences and stood united as liberal democracies against Vladimir Putin’s aggression.
• They are now more committed to strengthening NATO and its premise of collective security and to the transatlantic partnership with the US than at any other time after World War II.
• Berlin strengthened its army, making more weapons and sending arms to Kyiv.
• EU has relaxed its immigration laws to accommodate refugees from Ukraine

3.Implications of Russia Ukraine war

• Europe is staring at dark winter of energy shortages, and high inflation.
• 40% of Europe's gas comes from Russia, Germany is the biggest consumer and even after the sanctions, EU countries were continuing with gas imports. Punitive cuts however reduced supply by nearly 90%
• Nord Stream, the 1200 km gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea, remained unoperational when Russia closed it down for maintenance work. In late September, there were leaks from the pipe after explosions, and a Danish investigation, of the area that falls in Denmark‘s exclusive economic zone, revealed a 50 –meter hole in the pipe.
• In Germany, inflation is rising at 10 %. Germany announced it would immediately implement a 96 billion euro plan to ease pressure on consumers from surging gas prices. German think tanks' forecasts on Germany's economy at their April growth projections from 3.7 % to 1.4 % and for 2023, to -0.4 % from 3.1 %.The institutes said soaring gas prices would push Germany into recession.

4.EU Over Gas Pricing

• Focus is on three things concerning the energy crisis-Reducing demand, ensuring the security of supply, and containing prices.
• EU countries have been discussing a price gap on gas imports so they do not bid. Some want the price cap to be applied only to Russia while others want it for all gas suppliers.

5.Nuclear Threat

• In the EU mostly Russia is blamed for war and Ukraine is bound by all-round support, however, they were divided into a "peace camp " and a "Justice camp"
• The peace amp wanted to end the war quickly even at the cost of concessions by Ukraine while the Justice camp believed that Russia must be punished severely
• Putin’s nuclear rhetoric may also work as a unifier. His threat to use all means available and the reference to various means available to defend Russian territory have been understood as references to nuclear weapons.

6.Peace Efforts

• The G7 leaders' statement after their virtual meeting that they welcome President Zelenskyy's readiness for a just peace which should include “respecting the UN Charter‘s protection of territorial integrity and sovereignty, safeguarding Ukraine’s ability to defend itself in the future, ensuring Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction, including exploring avenues to do so with funds from Russia, pursuing accountability for Russian crimes committed during the war.
• The most serious efforts at bringing the two sides to the table were made by Turkey in March when the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers met in Ankara, but that effort ended in failure