The global order — a fraying around many edges

2. The Evolution of the Post-World War Order

The world has undergone significant transformations since the aftermath of World War II, challenging the foundations of the post-war order established during that tumultuous period. This order, which emerged amidst the chaos of conflict, was structured to prevent another global conflagration and is centred around the United Nations Organisation (UN) and its various agencies, funds, and programmes.

Origins of the Post-World War Order

The origins of this order can be traced back to January 1942, when 26 Allied nations signed the Declaration of the United Nations, endorsing the principles outlined in the Atlantic Charter of 1941. These documents encapsulated the war aims of the United States and the United Kingdom and laid the groundwork for the establishment of the UN.

Structure of the UN and Power Dynamics

The UN was conceived to uphold the sovereign equality of all member nations and promote collective security. However, this principle of sovereign equality faced challenges within the Security Council, where five Permanent Members held veto power. These Permanent Members, representing the Allied powers, included major colonial powers, reflecting the power dynamics of the time.

Formation of Financial and Trade Institutions

In parallel with the establishment of the UN, the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference at Bretton Woods in July 1944 led to the creation of key financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (World Bank). Additionally, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) was formed in 1947 and succeeded by the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995. These institutions aimed to prevent a repeat of the economic turmoil of the interwar years, facilitate post-war reconstruction and promote global trade liberalization.

Shifts in Power Dynamics

Ironically, the creation of the IMF marked a significant shift in global power dynamics. With imperial Britain heavily indebted, the United States emerged as the new economic powerhouse, leading to the dollar replacing the sterling as the primary currency. Britain also had to abandon its system of imperial trade preferences, symbolizing the decline of colonial dominance and the rise of new economic powers.

In essence, while the post-World War II order was instrumental in maintaining stability and promoting cooperation among nations, evolving global realities and shifts in power dynamics have necessitated reassessments and reforms to ensure its continued relevance in the 21st century.

4. The Persistence of Old Power Structures

Despite the passage of time, the governance of key international institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) continues to reflect the power structures of the post-World War II era. The World Bank is traditionally led by an American, while Europe nominates the head of the IMF. Voting rights within these institutions remain largely unchanged, with the original BRICS members holding relatively low percentages compared to the United States and its allies. This skewed distribution of voting rights effectively gives the U.S. a powerful veto over most decisions, including the allocation of Special Drawing Rights.

The Role of the IMF in Global Stability

The IMF plays a crucial role in maintaining global financial stability by providing advice and financial assistance to countries in need, albeit with conditions attached. This assistance is contingent upon the approval of the IMF leadership, which is often influenced by the interests of major Western powers.

The UN System and International Law

The UN system, built upon a series of international treaties, has been instrumental in facilitating international relations and upholding international law. However, the structure of the UN Charter has favoured the original signatories, making it difficult for developing countries, including former colonies, to challenge the status quo. The veto power of the Security Council and the voting structures of the Bretton Woods Institutions have limited their ability to effect meaningful change.

Challenges to the Established Order

Rising powers, dissatisfied with the existing power dynamics, have sought alternatives. The Non-Aligned Movement and the G-77 attempted to challenge the status quo but faced limitations due to their disparate needs and lack of unity. Smaller, more cohesive groupings have had some success, but broader attempts at reform have been stymied by entrenched interests.

The Proliferation of Ad Hoc Groupings

In response to these challenges, a multitude of ad hoc groupings with varying focuses and memberships have emerged. These groups, ranging from the OECD to the Quad, represent a more flexible approach to international engagement. However, the UN-led system remains the default option, despite the emergence of alternatives like the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which has yet to gain widespread acceptance.

5. Challenges to the Established Order

The 2020s have brought significant challenges to the established global order. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the limitations of international cooperation, with closed borders disrupting global trade and vaccine distribution. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has exposed the hypocrisy of powerful nations that flout international rules. Additionally, the conflict in Gaza has underscored the deep divides between developed and developing nations, as well as the tension between supporting the UN and backing specific geopolitical interests.

Undermining of the UN System

These events have led to a marginalization of the UN, which was established by the very powers now questioning its legitimacy. The commitment to human rights and the genocide convention, which are foundational to the UN, are being tested by the actions of Permanent Members.

The Search for Alternatives

Given these challenges, there is growing speculation about what could replace the UN system. However, existing organizations and groupings outside the UN are often limited in scope and effectiveness. While some, like the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) or the European Union (EU), serve specific regional interests, others, like the G-7 or G-20, are more global but still lack the binding treaties and legal obligations of the UN. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is another example of a limited alliance focused on regional security.

The Need for Change

Despite their limitations, the existence of these organizations suggests a broader need for change in the global system. The last major shift in the global order occurred after World War II, and the current challenges facing the world are prompting a reevaluation of the existing structures.

6. Conclusion

The UN faces challenges due to evolving realities. While alternatives exist, the UN remains the primary framework for global cooperation. However, it needs adaptation to address current challenges and reflect the realities of the 21st century. Addressing deep divisions and fostering dialogue is crucial for meaningful reform.