WORLD POPULATION PROSPECTS (WPP)

What is World Population Prospects (WPP)

The Population division of the UN has been publishing the WPP in a biennial cycle since 1951.

Each revision of the WPP provides a historical time series of population indicators starting in 1950.

It does so by taking into account newly released national data to revise estimates of past trends in fertility, mortality or international migration.

MAIN TAKEAWAYS FOR THE GLOBAL POPULATION

• The world‘s population continues to grow, but the pace of growth is slowing down. The global population is expected to grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030,9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion in 2100. In 2020, the global growth rate fell under 1% per year for the first time since 1950.
• Rates of population growth vary significantly across countries and regions, more than half of the projected increase in global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in just eight countries –Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania.
• The 46 least developed countries (LDC) are among the world’s fastest-growing.
• Many are projected to double in population between 2022 and 2050, putting additional pressure on resources and posing challenges to the achievement of the UN‘s Sustainable Development Goals.
• The population of older persons is increasing both in numbers and as a share of the total; the share of the global population aged 65 years or above is projected to rise from 10% in 2022 to 16% in 2050. As such, the report warns that countries with ageing populations should take steps to adapt public programmes to the growing proportion of older persons, including by improving the sustainability of social security and pension systems and by establishing universal health care and long-term care systems.
• A sustained drop in fertility has led to an increased concentration of the population at working ages(between 25and 64 years), creating an opportunity for accelerated economic growth per capita. This shift in the age distribution provides a time-bound opportunity for accelerated economic growth known as the demographic dividend.
• To maximize the potential benefits of favourable age distribution, countries need to invest in the further development of their human capital by ensuring access to health care and quality education at all ages and by promoting opportunities for productive employment and decent work.
• International migration is having an important impact on population trends for some countries; for high-income countries between 2000 and 2020, the contribution of international migration to population growth exceeded the balance of births over deaths. Over the next few decades, migration will be the sole driver of population growth in high-income countries. In many of these countries, the outflows were due to temporary labour movements such as Pakistan., India, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. In other countries like the Syria Arab Republic, Venezuela and Myanmar, insecurity and conflict drove the outflow of migrants over this period.