US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
1. Context
As the US presidential elections dominate the headlines world over, observers in India are keenly watching how the incoming US administration’s policies would align with India’s aspirations on the world stage, creating potential pathways for deeper collaboration between the two democracies.
2. Primaries and Caucuses
- The U.S. presidential election is a lengthy, intricate process lasting over a year. It starts when potential candidates announce their intention to seek their party’s nomination and concludes with the inauguration of the elected president.
- The U.S. primarily follows a two-party system dominated by the Democratic and Republican parties, while smaller parties like the Libertarian and Green parties face structural barriers and typically receive less than 2% of the vote share.
- In the election cycle, candidates aiming for a party's presidential nomination compete through state-by-state primaries and caucuses. These contests, held 6–9 months before the presidential election, allow registered party members (in closed primaries) or the general public (in open primaries) to vote for their preferred candidates.
- In contrast, caucuses involve more informal gatherings where party members discuss and vote on their preferred candidates.
- Both the Democratic and Republican parties use a mix of primaries and caucuses in various states, with each party following its own rules for allocating delegates. Delegates, chosen to represent their state or community at the national nominating convention, play a crucial role in selecting the party’s candidate for the November election.
- A unique aspect of the U.S. primary process is the series of televised debates where candidates from the same party confront each other on major issues.
- These debates allow candidates to showcase their strengths and address their opponents’ weaknesses, a format of direct public discourse among party leaders that does not occur in Indian elections
3. National conventions and vice-presidential selection
- The nomination process reaches its peak at the party’s national convention, where delegates officially select the presidential candidate who has secured a majority through the primary and caucus process.
- Following the convention, the campaign focus shifts from internal party contests to the general election. These conventions also help consolidate party support around one candidate, who typically announces a vice-presidential running mate at this time.
- The presidential nominee selects the vice-presidential candidate, a decision with both strategic and symbolic importance. The Vice President, as the first in line for the presidency, assumes office if the President is unable to serve due to death, resignation, or incapacity.
- As the nation’s second-highest executive officer, the Vice President also presides over the Senate. The choice of a running mate is often a calculated move to balance the ticket and expand the campaign’s appeal across various voter groups. For instance, Joe Biden’s selection of Kamala Harris as his running mate in 2020 was viewed as a strategy to enhance support among women, minorities, and younger voters.
- After the conventions, both presidential campaigns ramp up efforts to connect with voters nationwide. Campaign tactics include extensive fundraising, targeted advertising, grassroots organizing, and sophisticated digital outreach aimed at diverse demographic groups.
- The primary goal is to rally support and secure the 270 electoral votes required to win the Electoral College and, ultimately, the presidency
4. Electoral College and Swing States
Source: Wikkicommons
- The Electoral College is a unique aspect of U.S. presidential elections, established by the Constitution and consisting of 538 electors. Each state’s number of electors corresponds to its Congressional representation, with one elector per House member and two for each Senator.
- When citizens vote in a presidential election (such as on November 5, 2024), they are actually choosing electors pledged to a specific candidate. Most states use a "winner-takes-all" approach, where the candidate with the majority vote in a state wins all its electoral votes.
- For instance, in Florida, with 29 electoral votes, a candidate winning even a slight majority would receive all 29 votes.
- This winner-takes-all system makes swing states crucial, as their electoral votes can be won by either party, unlike solidly Democratic ("blue") states like California, New York, and Illinois or reliably Republican ("red") states like Texas and Tennessee. Consequently, presidential campaigns concentrate efforts and resources on swing states, where margins are often narrow and can determine the outcome.
- In the 2024 election, seven pivotal swing states—Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada—were especially significant. To win the presidency, a candidate must secure at least 270 of the 538 electoral votes, meaning victory hinges on winning specific states rather than the national popular vote.
- This system has faced criticism, particularly when the electoral outcome contradicts the popular vote, as seen in the 2016 election when Donald Trump won the presidency with 304 electoral votes despite Hillary Clinton receiving 2.1% more of the popular vote
5. Presidential and Vice Presidential debates
- Debates play a vital role in the U.S. election process, offering candidates an opportunity to share their perspectives and interact directly with their opponents.
- Presidential debates have a longstanding tradition, with the first televised debate held in 1960 between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon. Generally, three presidential debates and one vice-presidential debate take place in the run-up to the election.
- These debates can be pivotal for undecided voters and have a substantial effect on campaign momentum.
- Strong performances in debates have often influenced voter decisions, as seen in former President Barack Obama's debates in 2008 and 2012, which are widely believed to have given him a significant advantage over his opponents
6. Election Process and Declaration of Results
- In the United States, presidential elections are held every four years on "the Tuesday following the first Monday in November." Voting methods vary widely across the country, including in-person voting, absentee ballots, and mail-in voting. In the latest election, 95% of registered voters came from areas where paper ballots, either hand-marked or otherwise, were predominantly used.
- Unlike India’s centralized election process, which is overseen by the Election Commission of India (ECI), the U.S. presidential election is administered by state and local authorities due to its federal structure. This decentralization means that key election processes are managed individually by each state.
- Each state independently handles various aspects of the election, including the selection of electors for the Electoral College, resulting in a diverse range of voting systems. State election offices oversee voter registration, ballot handling, polling sites, and vote tallying, with states finalizing their processes at different times.
- Once the results are counted, they are certified by each state’s election board, a critical step that allows electors to cast their votes in the Electoral College.
- Although the projected winner of the presidential election is usually known in November, the official declaration occurs in January, when the U.S. Congress meets to count the electoral votes and formally announces the ‘President-elect.’
7. commencement
- The presidential inauguration signifies the official transfer of power to the newly elected president. Held on January 20 after the election, the ceremony takes place on the steps of the U.S. Capitol, where the president-elect takes the oath of office, committing to uphold the Constitution and fulfill the responsibilities of the presidency. Inauguration Day is a prominent occasion, typically marked by parades, celebrations, and public gatherings.
- This longstanding tradition, established over two centuries ago, remains a key element of American democracy. However, its ability to fully capture the popular will has faced criticism, especially for not prioritizing the national popular vote.
- Despite the political challenges and controversies that often surround it, the election process highlights the resilience of the American democratic system, culminating in the rise of a new leader poised to shape both national and global affairs.
- The incoming president will confront pressing issues, including the conflicts in Ukraine and Palestine, along with other complex international concerns, while also striving to meet the expectations of the American people
Source: Indianexpress
