UKRAINE WAR AND WORLD ORDER
1. Context
Russia’s war in Ukraine has entered its third year. What many thought on February 24, 2022 would be a swift Russian military operation against its smaller neighbour has turned out to be the largest land war in Europe since the end of the Second World War. The war has pushed Russia to turn towards Asia and the Global South in general, while the West continues to support Ukraine in its bid to push back and weaken Russia. A vast majority of countries, including India, remain neutral as the violence continues.
2. Where does the war stand now?
- After eight months of Ukraine's counteroffensive, it is now apparent that the operation was unsuccessful.
- This acknowledgment comes from Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the former commander of Ukrainian forces, who was dismissed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy this month. Gen. Zaluzhnyi had advocated for a mass mobilization, indicating a critical shortage of frontline fighters for Ukraine.
- The country lost a considerable number of weapons supplied by the West during the counteroffensive and is awaiting fresh supplies. However, assistance from the U.S. is currently stalled in Congress due to opposition from Republicans.
- Meanwhile, the Russians are actively pursuing an offensive strategy. In December, Russia claimed its first victory since the fall of Bakhmut by capturing Maryinka in Donetsk. Recently, Ukraine was compelled to abandon Avdiivka, a strategically important town in Donetsk, after enduring months of intense fighting and significant losses.
- Russian forces are now pushing westward in Donetsk, exerting pressure on Ukrainian forces in Krynky and Kherson in the south
3.What is the West’s strategy?
- The Western strategy toward Ukraine encompassed a dual-sided strategy. Firstly, there was an effort to support Kyiv economically and militarily to sustain its resistance against Russia. Simultaneously, the second facet aimed to undermine Russia's economy and military capabilities through the implementation of sanctions.
- However, with the setback in Ukraine's counteroffensive and a shifting political landscape in Washington, where the potential for a second Trump presidency looms, the viability of the first aspect of this policy is now uncertain, if not precarious.
- On the other hand, the second element involving sanctions has inflicted significant damage on Russia.
- According to Western officials, these sanctions are believed to have cost Russia more than $430 billion in revenue that it would have otherwise accrued since the commencement of the conflict
4.How have the sanctions affected Russia?
- Russia has devised various strategies to navigate around sanctions and sustain its economy. In response to reduced energy sales from Europe, Russia offered discounted crude oil to rapidly growing economies like China, India, and Brazil.
- To maintain oil shipments to these new markets independently of Western shipping companies and insurers, Russia assembled a concealed fleet of ships.
- Additionally, it established shell companies and private corporations in neighboring regions, such as Armenia or Turkey, to facilitate the import of dual-use technologies, which were subsequently re-exported to Russia for use in defense production.
- China, as the world's second-largest economy, escalated its financial and trade connections with Russia, even engaging in the export of dual-use technologies.
- Russia diversified its currency usage, moving away from the dollar to primarily utilize the Chinese yuan in trade. It also increased domestic defense and public spending, with a notable nearly 70% rise in its defense budget.
- Strengthening ties with countries like Iran and North Korea, both grappling with American sanctions, Russia imported various weapons, including drones, cruise missiles, and ammunition.
- Despite the imposition of sanctions, two years into the conflict, both Russia's energy sector and military-industrial complex remain robust.
- In January 2024, Russia generated $15.6 billion from oil exports alone, a notable increase from $11.8 billion in the previous summer, according to the International Energy Agency. The Russian Defence Ministry reported manufacturing 1,530 tanks and 2,518 armored vehicles in 2023
5.How is the war transforming Russia?
- It doesn't imply that everything is progressing favorably for Mr. Putin and his associates. Since the commencement of the conflict, two neighboring countries, Sweden and Finland, have joined NATO, thereby extending the alliance's border with Russia.
- Despite Mr. Putin's efforts to establish robust economic connections with Europe over the years, these ties are now in disarray.
- Russia's influence in its immediate vicinity is diminishing, as evident in tensions with Armenia, leading to the latter's decision to suspend participation in the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
- Russia is also developing a reliance on China, although the Kremlin is cautious not to disturb its delicate relationship with New Delhi.
- Internally, the Russian government is intensifying its control over society and suppressing any dissent regarding the war.
- The Prigozhin rebellion last year revealed vulnerabilities in the state structure that Mr. Putin had constructed.
- The recent death of Alexei Navalny, a prominent critic of President Putin in Russia, in a remote Arctic prison on February 16 2024 further supports criticisms of Russia's approach to handling dissent.
- If post-Soviet Russia seemed to be a "managed democracy," post-war Russia is sliding toward a tightly controlled authoritarian state
6.Way Forward
The Western approach of bolstering Ukraine through assistance and undermining Russia via sanctions appears to have fallen short. The conflict has highlighted the constraints of Western influence in an evolving global landscape — for sanctions to be impactful, the trans-Atlantic alliance now requires backing from other major economies like China and India. While Russia has consistently found ways to navigate around sanctions, it has also incurred significant losses and will grapple with the enduring repercussions of these sanctions. Amidst this turmoil, if there is a major power relatively unaffected, it is China. As Beijing assesses the situation, it observes both the West and Russia entangled in Ukraine, compelling the latter to shift focus towards Asia and reshaping the global balance of power
Source: The Hindu
