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General Studies 3 >> Enivornment & Ecology

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TEMPERATURE RISE OF 2 DEGREES

TEMPERATURE RISE OF 2 DEGREES

 

1. Context

Under current climate change policies, billions will face life-threatening heat. But a global network of heat officers are tackling the problem in their cities. A study, led by scientists at the UK’s University of Exeter and Nanjing University in China, found that 60 million people are already exposed to dangerous heat levels, characterized by an average temperature of 29 degrees Celsius (84.2 degrees Fahrenheit) or higher. 

2. Key Takeaways

  • About 2 billion people will live in hazardous heat conditions by the end of the century if climate policies continue on their current trajectory, according to new research published in the Nature Sustainability journal. That represents 23 percent of the projected global population.
  • If the climate warms more drastically a potential scenario under current policies about 3.3 billion people could face extreme temperatures by the end of the century.

3. How do hot temperatures harm human health?

  • Extreme heat can result in a range of illnesses and death, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO). These include heatstroke and hyperthermia.
  • Temperature extremes also worsen chronic conditions and have an indirect effect on disease transmission, air quality, and critical infrastructure.
  • The elderly, infants and children, pregnant women, outdoor and manual workers, athletes, and the poor are particularly vulnerable to higher temperatures.
  • People living in India, Sudan, and Niger will all be heavily affected by even 1.5 degrees of warming, but 2.7 degrees will have enormous effects on countries like the Philippines, Pakistan, and Nigeria.

4. Calculating the human cost of Climate Change

  • Researchers said their study breaks the trend of modeling climate impacts in economic rather than human terms.
  • Most other models also prioritize current populations over future ones, with inequality in global warming being "both globally distributed, but also intergenerational."
  • It fundamentally values my life more than my children's lives and certainly more than my grandchildren's lives.
  • Looking at individual country impacts on dangerous heat levels, researchers found that current emissions from 1.2 average US citizens condemn a future human to live in extreme heat. 
  • Despite having disproportionate emissions, the US population faces a much lower threat from dangerous temperatures.

5. How can people be protected from extreme heat?

  • Previous studies have shown cities are particularly vulnerable to such dangerous temperature rises, due to the "heat island effect".
  • Buildings, roads, and infrastructure absorb and radiate the sun's heat more than natural environments like forests and water bodies, raising the urban temperature by as much as 15 degrees Celsius in some cases, compared to rural areas.
  • Cities around the world are introducing the new role of chief heat officer to deal with inevitable temperature increases.
  • One of those is Cristina Huidobro, who took up the post of Chile's capital Santiago in March 2022.
  • Many cities in the world face extreme heat, but the solutions and the way you approach it are very, very local, Huidobro told DW.
  • Preparedness can include categorizing heat waves in the same way as other natural disasters or setting up an alert threshold to trigger a certain city response.
  • Limiting warming to the lower Paris Accord target of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels would still expose 400 million people to dangerous heat levels by the end of the century, the study found.
  • The third prong is adapting the city to the new reality of high temperatures, largely by creating more green spaces in the city.
  • Santiago has just launched an urban reforestation project to plant 30,000 trees across the city and develop strategies that treat the trees as part of the urban infrastructure. “Trees, trees, trees, trees everywhere. 
  • But planting trees isn’t as easy as people think. We’re putting trees in really dense streets, like in the main avenues of the city, where you have a lot of cement.
  • You need to dig a hole and do some civil work. It’s also not an instant solution to urban heat as trees need time to grow.

6. Emissions are seeking a peak in 2025

  • The G7 stressed the need for a global peak in emissions by 2025. The G7-the US, the UK, Germany, Italy, Japan, France, and Canada claimed that their emissions had already “peaked”, and asked all “major economies” to ensure that their individual emissions do not continue to rise beyond 2025.
  • Major economies are not defined, but in the context of climate change, it usually includes countries like India, China, Brazil, South Africa, and Russia, each of which is a significant emitter.
  • The 2025 peak year is not mandated under the Paris Agreement or any other international decision. India has long made it clear that it sees its emissions growing well into the next decade.
  • Even China, the world’s largest emitter, has indicated that it would peak only towards the end of this decade.
  • Still, a global peak of greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 is not implausible. The biggest emissions year so far has been 2019 about 55 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.
  • After a dramatic drop in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, emissions rose again in 2021, the last year for which data are available, but remained lower than in 2019.
  • While emissions of developing countries, including India, are still increasing, most of the rich and industrialized nations are now seeing a decline, though not at the required pace.
  • Estimates from UN Climate Change suggest that if all countries took only those measures that they have promised so far, emissions in 2030 would be about 11 percent higher than 2010 levels.

7. Target of Net Zero by 2050

  • The G7 reiterated its commitment to turn net zero by 2050 and asked all ‘major economies’ to attain net-zero status by that year and to come up with detailed road maps to reach the target.
  • Science says that the world as a whole must become net zero by mid-century in order to meet the 1.5 degree Celsius target.
  • Interestingly, the 1.5 degree Celsius milestone is likely to be achieved a lot sooner not just as part of annual fluctuation but also on a more stable basis.
  • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has said this could happen before 2040 but that it was possible to pull back from there if aggressive action on climate continued. One of the prerequisites of the pullback is global net zero by 2050.
  • China has said it would turn net zero only in 2060, while India has set 2070 as the target. Some other countries, including big emitters like Russia and Saudi Arabia, have 2060 as their net-zero targets.
  • If these countries do not become net-zero by 2050, it would mean that the other major emitters, mainly the US and the European Union, would have to reach there much earlier. As of now, only Germany has said it would attain net-zero status by 2045.
  • However, the post-2050 targets of major developing countries are not set in stone. With fast-changing technologies and the rapid adoption of cleaner sources of energy, the situation could alter significantly over the next decade.
  • But countries like India would want to keep some wiggle room for themselves, and not make a commitment that they are not mandated to do.

8. End of Fossil Fuels

  • The G7 countries put no deadline on ending the use of fossil fuels, only saying that they were committed to accelerating the phase-out of “unabated fossil fuels” in line with 1.5-degree Celsius trajectories.
  • “Unabated” is not clearly defined; they also said they would eliminate “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies” by 2025 or earlier, without defining “inefficient subsidies”.
  • The G7 also claimed they had stopped financing new fossil fuel-based energy projects “except in limited circumstances”.
  • These circumstances include the need to end the dependence on Russian gas, because of which new investments in the gas sector would be considered legitimate. 
For Prelims: World Health Organisation (WHO), Climate Change, heat island effect, G-7, Greenhouse gas emissions, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Previous year Question

1. Consider the following statements: (UPSC 2022)
1. "The Climate Group" is an international non-profit organization that drives climate action by building large networks and runs them.
2. The International Energy Agency in partnership with the Climate Group launched a global initiative "EP100".
3. EP100 brings together leading companies committed to driving innovation in energy efficiency and increasing competitiveness while delivering on emission reduction goals.
4. Some Indian companies are members of EP100.
5. The International Energy Agency is the Secretariat to the "Under2 Coalition".
Which of the statements given above is correct?
A. 1, 2, 4 and 5
B. 1, 3, and 4 only
C. 2, 3, and 5 only
D. 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5
Answer: B
Source: The Indian Express

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