SNOWFALL IN KASHMIR
This winter, snow is missing across popular ski destinations in Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh. Gulmarg and Pahalgam typically blanketed in white, lack the powder for skiing enthusiasts. Similarly, Himachal Pradesh's famed resorts boast dry slopes and barren valleys instead of their usual snowy charm. Even Uttarakhand's Himalayas have seen minimal snowfall, with Auli recording its first dusting only on January 19th. According to the IMD, Himachal received a staggering 99.7% less rain than the average for January, shattering the previous record of 99.6% set in 1996
2. Factors Contributing to the Scarce Snowfall
- Snowfall is contingent upon sufficient moisture and sub-zero atmospheric temperatures. Despite the low temperatures observed since December, various factors have converged to impede the customary snowfall.
- An analysis conducted by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in mid-January revealed that maximum temperatures across the plains of northern India have consistently been 5-8°C below normal since December 29.
- Moreover, minimum temperatures in numerous stations in northwest India remained below 4 degrees Celsius throughout January.
- This temperature pattern has led to the persistence of dense fog over the northwest Indian plains, causing zero visibility in several cities spanning from Amritsar to Dibrugarh, encompassing Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar.
- While the presence of moisture and high aerosol levels contributes to the formation of fog, three primary factors have contributed to the dearth of snowfall, thereby intensifying cold waves across northern India.
- These factors include a significant decline in Western Disturbances (WDs) over northwest India, prevailing El-Nino conditions, and the absence of a robust jet stream.
Influence of Western Disturbances on Snowfall
Western Disturbances (WDs) play a crucial role in the winter weather patterns of northern India. Originating in mid-latitude regions, these storms travel vast distances to bring precipitation to the region. Typically, WDs in winter dissipate fog, increase sunlight reaching the ground, raise temperatures, and, when temperatures are low, lead to snowfall. The melted snow from these events contributes to vital water sources like the Ganga, Indus, and Yamuna rivers. However, this winter has seen a notable absence of WDs, with only two impacting regions Gujarat, north Maharashtra, east Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh. The scarcity of WD-induced precipitation has resulted in an 80% rainfall deficit in the Western Himalayan Region.
Impact of El-Nino Conditions on Winter Weather
Prevailing El-Nino conditions, characterised by warmer ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, may have also contributed to the lack of snowfall. Regardless of El Nino or its counterpart La Nina, the number of WDs in December and January has been declining. The winter of 2022-23 reported India's hottest December on record, with an 83% rainfall deficit in the northwest region, which typically receives a significant portion of its rainfall during this season.
Disrupted Weather Patterns and Global Warming
Recent years have witnessed a disruption in the traditional pattern of WDs, with an increase observed in February and March, sometimes causing flash floods in regions like Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh. The conventional WD pattern has been notably absent since 2019, contributing to extended dry periods and intense wet spells. Meteorologists and climate scientists attribute these irregular weather patterns to global warming, emphasising the characteristic shifts seen in recent years.
4. Significance of Jet Streams in Winter Weather Patterns
Jet streams, characterized by powerful winds ranging from 250-320 kmph and located approximately 12 km above mean sea level, play a pivotal role in shaping winter weather conditions in northern India.
Carrier of Western Disturbances
Jet streams serve as carriers for Western Disturbances (WDs), crucial for bringing precipitation to the region. However, the current lack of moisture has altered their typical role, leading to a contribution to the subsidence of cold air and exacerbating cold conditions over northern India.
Influence on Cold Air and Moisture Dynamics
Following the withdrawal of the monsoon, jet streams come into play by drawing in moisture from the Arabian Sea. In the absence of sufficient moisture this winter, jet streams have primarily been contributing to the subsidence of cold air, intensifying the prevailing cold conditions over northern India.
Impact of Climate Change on Jet Stream Behavior
Recent research suggests a significant shift in the behaviour of jet streams. These high-altitude winds have been observed to be shifting northwards in recent years. Emerging studies propose that this shift is a consequence of warming in the Arctic seas. The warming alters the natural temperature gradient crucial for determining the strength and direction of the jet streams. As a result, the changing behaviour of jet streams contributes to the evolving winter weather patterns observed in northern India.
5. The Way Forward
The lack of snow in Kashmir this winter paints a concerning picture. Climate change appears to be the driving force, disrupting weather patterns and impacting snowfall through reduced Western Disturbances, weakened jet streams, and El Nino's influence. To prevent such scenarios, tackling climate change through sustainability, emissions reduction, and renewable energy adoption is crucial. Additionally, communities must adapt by developing drought-resistant crops, exploring alternative water sources, and diversifying tourism. This stark reminder of our planet's vulnerability demands immediate action. Understanding the causes and taking steps to address them can ensure the Himalayas remain snow-crowned, sustaining life and wonder for generations to come.
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For Prelims: El Nino, Snowfall, Climate Change, Jet streams, Himalayas, Western Disturbances, India Meteorological Department
For Mains:
1. "The snowless winter in Kashmir serves as a stark reminder of our planet's vulnerability." Discuss this statement in the context of global environmental challenges and the need for sustainable development practices. (250 Words)
2. Explain the scientific principles behind the formation of snowfall, and discuss the role of Western Disturbances and jet streams in winter precipitation patterns in the Himalayas. (250 Words)
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Previous Year Questions
1. Snow, sleet and hail are the forms of (NDA 2022)
A. precipitation B. condensation C. transpiration D. evaporation
2. Which one of the following is associated with the issue of control and phasing out of the use of ozone-depleting substance? (UPSC CSE 2015) A.Bretton woods conference
B. Montreal Protocol
C. Kyoto Protocol
D. Nagoya Protocol
3. Headquarters of the World Meteorological Organization is located in (NDA 2017)
A. Washington
B. Geneva
C. Moscow
D. London
4. With reference to the Agreement at the UNFCCC Meeting in Paris in 2015, which of the following statements is/are correct? (UPSC 2016)
1. The Agreement was signed by all the member countries of the UN and it will go into effect in 2017
2. The Agreement aims to limit greenhouse gas emissions so that the rise in average global temperature by the end of this century does not exceed 2°C or even 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
3. Developed countries acknowledged their historical responsibility in global warming and committed to donate $ 1000 billion a year from 2020 to help developing countries to cope with climate change.
Select the correct answer using the code given below:
A. 1 and 3 only B. 2 only C. 2 and 3 only D. 1, 2 and 3
5. A new type of El Nino called El Nino Modoki appeared in the news. In this context, consider the following statements: (UPSC 2010)
1. Normal El Nino forms in the Central Pacific ocean whereas El Nino Modoki forms in the Eastern Pacific ocean.
2. Normal El Nino results in diminished hurricanes in the Atlantic ocean but El Nino Modoki results in a greater number of hurricanes with greater frequency.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
A. 1 only B. 2 only C. Both 1 and 2 D. Neither 1 nor 2
6. La Nina is suspected to have caused recent floods in Australia. How is La Nina different from El Nino? (UPSC 2011)
1. La Nina is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperature in the equatorial Indian Ocean whereas El Nino is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
2. El Nino has an adverse effect on the south-west monsoon of India, but La Nina has no effect on the monsoon climate.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
A. 1 only B. 2 only C. Both 1 and 2 D. Neither 1 nor 2
7. Consider the following statements: (MPSC 2017)
a. La Nina is a little girl.
b. During the time of La Nina cold water in the ocean rises to the surface.
c. La Nina strengthens the Indian monsoon.
d. During the time of El Nino, trade winds weaken, and warm water moves east in the ocean. Which of the above statements is/are correct?
A. Only a and b B. a, b and c C. Only b and c D. All of the above
8. Which of the following statements regarding 'Green Climate Fund' is/are correct? (UPSC 2015)
1. It is intended to assist the developing countries in adaptation and mitigation practices to counter climate change.
2. It is founded under the aegis of UNEP, OECS, Asian Development Bank and World Bank.
Select the correct answer using the code given below.
A. 1 only B. 2 only C. Both 1 and 2 D. Neither 1 nor 2
9. In the context of any country, which one of the following would be considered as part of its social capital? (UPSC 2019)
A. The proportion of literature in the population
B. The stock of its buildings, other infrastructure and machines
C. The size of population in the working age group
D. The level of mutual trust and harmony in the society
10. The International Development Association, a lending agency, is administered by the (UPSC 2010)
A. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development
B. International Fund for Development
C. United Nations Development Programme.
D. United Nations Industrial Development Organization
Answers: 1-A, 2-B, 3-B, 4-B, 5-B, 6-D, 7-D, 8-A, 9-D, 10- A
Mains
1. Describe the major outcomes of the 26th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). What are the commitments made by India in this conference? (UPSC 2021)
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