PORCUPINE STRATEGY

1. Context

2. The Porcupine Doctrine

• The Porcupine doctrine was proposed in 2008 by US Naval War College research professor William S Murray.
• It is a strategy of asymmetric warfare focused on fortifying a weak state's defenses to exploit the enemy's weaknesses rather than taking on its strengths.
• It is about building defenses that would ensure that Taiwan could be attacked and damaged but not defeated, at least without unacceptably high costs and risks.

3. How does this doctrine work?

• There are three defensive layers in the Porcupine approach.
• The outer layer is about intelligence and reconnaissance to ensure defense forces are fully prepared. Behind this come plans for guerrilla warfare at sea with aerial support from sophisticated aircraft provided by the US.
• The innermost layer relies on the geography and demography of the island.
• While the outer surveillance layer would work to prevent a surprise attack, the second one would make it difficult for China to land its troops on the island in the face of a guerrilla campaign at sea using "agile, missile-armed small ships, supported by helicopters and missile launchers".

Image Source: BBC

4. Asymmetric system of Defence

• In its 2021 Quadrennial Defence Review, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defence defined asymmetric systems as ones that are "small, numerous, smart, stealthy, mobile and hard to be detected and countered", and "associated with innovative tactics and employments".
• According to Taiwan's former Chief of the General Staff Admiral Lee Hsi-ming, these systems are "a large number of small things".
• These asymmetric capabilities will be aimed at striking the "operational center of gravity and key nodes of the enemy", it said.
• The geographic advantages of the Taiwan Strait shall be tapped to shape favorable conditions for us to disrupt the operational tempo of the enemy, and frustrate its attempts and moves of invasion at decisive points to strike a dispread enemy with a united blow.

5. Need for such a strategy

• China enjoys overwhelming military superiority over Taiwan.
• Over the past decade, Beijing has developed more accurate and precise weapon systems to target Taiwan. 
• China has been more vocal about its intention to "reunite" the island with the mainland by force or coercion if needed.
• The PLA has already achieved the capabilities needed to conduct an air and naval blockade, cyberattacks, and missile strikes against Taiwan.
• PLA leaders now likely assess they have, or will soon have, the initial capability needed to conduct a high-risk invasion of Taiwan (following Russia's Path).

6. One China Policy

7. How easy will it be for China?

• Missile strikes, cyberattacks, and air and naval blockades aside, undertaking a full-scale invasion across the Taiwan strait, with attendant risks of anti-ship and anti-air attacks, could present challenges for China.
• The PLA is estimated to have air and naval resources to carry out an initial landing of 25,000 or more troops, which could increase if it deploys civilian ships to meet its military objectives.
• However, it will have to first select and secure a suitable beachhead from among the handful that is available.
• Also, with small and agile weapons systems, Taiwan can turn its coastline into a kill zone that would deny China a walkover.
• Beijing would have to rely on cyberattacks, missile strikes on Taiwan's air bases and runways, and a blockade to choke it into surrendering.

For Prelims