MYANMAR'S CIVIL WAR AND INDIA'S INTEREST

• The capture of Paletwa has sparked a new dimension in the ongoing conflict, creating tensions between the Chin and Arakan ethnic groups. Predominantly inhabited by the Chin community, Paletwa is viewed as an integral part of their homeland. However, a faction in the Rakhine State argues that, historically, the township belonged to the Arakan Hill Tracts during colonial rule.
• Even before the coup, there were instances of dissatisfaction among Chin ethnic organizations regarding the Arakan Army's activities in Paletwa. While the Chin armed groups and the Arakan army jointly confront the Myanmar military, they have refrained from forcefully delineating their perspectives on provincial borders.
• To maintain stability, the Chin and Arakan groups must establish an inclusive governance framework for Paletwa and its surrounding areas. Achieving inter-ethnic solidarity is essential for an effective resistance against the military. However, finding a compromise on contentious issues such as Paletwa's status proves to be a complex challenge.
• Given Paletwa's strategic location on the western border, it serves as a significant operational base for the Arakan Army. The town's position on the Kaladan River enhances its economic importance, making it a desirable hub for any armed group seeking to benefit from regional economic activities.

3. India's Interests in Flux

• The evolving situation in Paletwa holds implications for India's ambitious Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project (KMTTP) in Myanmar, which has already encountered significant delays. Conceived to address the geo-economic and geo-political challenges of northeast India, the project aims to provide an alternative route for transporting goods to and from the landlocked region.
• The partition of the subcontinent and the subsequent tightening of borders rendered northeast India landlocked, with the transportation of goods through the narrow Siliguri corridor proving to be both expensive and potentially vulnerable in the worst-case scenario involving China. The Kaladan project was envisioned to offer northeast India access to the sea, alleviating these challenges.
• Signed in 2008, the framework agreement for the Kaladan project between India and Myanmar faced delays in operationalization due to rugged terrain, insufficient inter-departmental coordination, political instability, and security challenges within Myanmar. While the Sittwe port and inland water terminal at Paletwa have been completed in recent years, road construction faces hurdles amid the prevailing security situation in Myanmar. It becomes imperative to consider the attitudes of local ethnic organizations towards the Kaladan project for its expeditious implementation.
• The people of Mizoram, along with their counterparts in the Chin State across the border, are keen on the swift completion of the Kaladan project, anticipating the economic boost it would bring to the region. However, there exists a perception in India that the Arakan Army may not be supportive of the Kaladan project. Reports before the coup suggested coordinated operations between India and Myanmar against Arakan Army units near Mizoram, posing threats to the Kaladan project. In 2019, the Arakan Army reportedly kidnapped five Indian workers involved in the project, leading to the tragic death of one due to a cardiac arrest while in captivity.

4. China's Strategic Investments and Geopolitical Influence in Myanmar

• The Arakan Army, part of the Three Brotherhood alliance with the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, is suspected by some to receive support from China. The alliance has explicitly committed to safeguarding Chinese investments in Myanmar. Reports indicate substantial financial and military support from China to the Arakan Army, raising concerns in Delhi about potential Chinese interference to impede India's connectivity projects in Myanmar.
• China's economic presence along Myanmar's Bay of Bengal coast has significantly expanded, marked by operational oil and natural gas pipelines from the Shwe gas fields in Rakhine State to Yunnan province. Recent agreements with the Myanmar military signal China's efforts to operationalize a deep-sea port and a special economic zone near Kyaukpyu. Additionally, plans for a railway line from China's Yunnan to Kyaukpyu, part of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), are reportedly underway.
• China's permanent membership in the United Nations Security Council enhances its influence, allowing it to garner support from various state and non-state actors seeking international backing. This positions China to provide political and military support to ethnic armed groups and the Myanmar military, safeguarding its economic interests in the region.
• The progress of the Kaladan project underscores the scrutiny India faces due to its status as a liberal democracy. As India engages externally, it must be mindful of potential impacts on sectarian and identity-based violence in its neighbourhood. While security agencies assess engagements with armed groups, there's a call to intensify humanitarian and development assistance in collaboration with a broader spectrum of ethnic organizations and local communities for the timely execution of projects like Kaladan.