THE LINGERING MONSOON
Source: The Indian Express
1. Context
Incessant rain over Delhi and several other parts of North and North-west India over the last few days provide further evidence of the shifting pattern in monsoon activity over the Indian subcontinent.
2. Background
A shift in the track of monsoon systems, like low pressure and depression traveling south of their position and flash floods, are a result of this change. These changes spell intense and frequent extreme unprecedented weather events over the places which once struggled to record even normal monsoon rains.
The recent spell of rainfall over western Uttar Pradesh, Uttrakhand, Haryana, Easter Rajasthan, and Delhi was a result of the interaction of monsoon winds moving east to west, with the western disturbance wind system.
3. Reasons behind the changing pattern of monsoon
- Global warming is heating the Arabian Sea leading to High evaporation and the creation of low-pressure systems. This is causing excess rainfall in western India.
- Climate change remains a major reason for the changing pattern of Monsoon.
- Land use patterns and the presence of aerosols might also be contributing to the changing pattern of Monsoon rainfalls.
- Climate change has disturbed the delicate balance of the atmospheric processes as well as the hydrological cycle. This is also contributing to the changing patterns of climatic conditions including that of the Monsoons.
- Persistance of intense La Nina conditions
EL Nino
- El Nino is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical pacific ocean.
- It is the warm phase of a larger phenomenon called the El Nino-Southern oscillation(ENSO). It occurs more frequently than in La Nina.
La Nina
- La Nina the cool phase of ENSO, is a pattern that describes the unusual cooling of the tropical eastern pacific.
- La Nina events may last between one and three years, unlike El Nino, which usually lasts no more than a year. Both phenomena tend to peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter.
- Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
IOD is defined by the difference in sea surface temperature between two areas ( or poles, hence a dipole )- a western pole in the Arabian sea ( western Indian ocean) and an eastern pole in the eastern Indian Ocean south of Indonesia.
4. A challenge in forecasting
- Incidents of floods and droughts have increased, there is more evidence coming our way on how global warming has been impacting the Indian monsoon.
- Most of the monsoon weather systems have been traveling across central parts of the country, changing the area rainfall. Climate change is definitely behind these changes. The changing patterns and increased instances of erratic monsoon behavior are creating forecasting complications for Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). The IMD has over the past 10-12 years invested heavily in setting up observational equipment, upgrading computer resources, and fine-tuning weather forecast models.
5. Impact of monsoon on other sectors
Monsoon rainfall is not just a weather phenomenon. It is a key driver of the Indian Economy.
5.1 Agriculture & Economy
It accounts for 18 percent of India's gross domestic product (GDP) and employs around half of its total workforce. The monsoon rains are the main source of water for 55 percent of the country's arable land, This means the rains are crucial- not only for India's farmers but for its economy as a whole.
5.2 Rivers
The monsoon brings water and sediment not only to Indian rivers but also to rivers in China, Bangladesh, etc.
This can lead to extreme climatic events like floods and droughts thus adversely affecting human life.
5.3 Food Security
Monsoon rainfall became less frequent but more intense in India during the latter half of the 20th century. Scientists and food experts believe that a better rainfall scenario could have helped increase the harvest.
However, India's hundreds of millions of rice producers and consumers are being affected negatively by these unprecedented changes which are also raising concerns over food security.
6. Conclusion
India needs to invest more resources in better prediction of monsoon forecasts to achieve reliability and sustainability.
For Prelims & Mains
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For Prelims:
Indian Meteorological Department(IMD), El Nino, La Nina, Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD), Retreating Monsoon
For Mains:
1. Climate change is a global problem. How will India be affected by climate change? 2.How Himalayan and coastal states of India will be affected by climate change? (250 Words).
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