INDIA'S POPULATION

2. Reassessing IHME Population Projections

• Recalling the notable misalignment in early COVID-19 projections, a recent scrutiny of population forecasts by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) prompts a cautious reevaluation. IHME's projections for India's population, indicating a significant decline by the end of the century, warrant careful examination given the potential discrepancies in underlying assumptions.
• The IHME model projects an average fertility rate of 1.29 children per woman in India by 2100, a figure notably lower than replacement levels. This stark prediction contrasts with projections for the United States and France, raising questions about the validity of the assumptions underpinning such forecasts.
• Until 2050, IHME's population estimates for India closely mirror those of the United Nations. However, a notable divergence emerges in the latter half of the century, with IHME projecting a significantly smaller population by 2100 compared to UN estimates.
• IHME's reliance on National Family Health Survey (NFHS) data, particularly regarding contraceptive usage, is called into question. Research suggests potential inaccuracies in estimating contraceptive prevalence, which may lead to underestimated unmet contraceptive needs and consequently, implausibly low fertility projections for 2100.
• In light of these observations, a critical review of IHME's population projections becomes imperative, urging a more nuanced understanding of the underlying data and assumptions shaping future demographic trajectories.

3. Unraveling India's Fertility Decline

• India's demographic landscape has undergone a profound shift, marked by a significant decline in fertility rates.
• From nearly six children per woman in the 1950s, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has plummeted to 2.2 today.
• Notably, the coercive family planning measures during the Emergency era only marginally impacted fertility, showcasing a mere 17% decrease from 1960 to 1980.
• However, the period between 1992 and 2015 witnessed a substantial 35% decline, with 18 States and Union Territories now boasting TFRs below the replacement level of 2.
• While the success of family planning programs may seem a logical explanation, the contemporary discourse in Indian policy circles has shifted away from prioritizing such initiatives.
• The era between 1975 and 1994 witnessed the implementation of coercive measures, where family planning workers faced targets for sterilizations, condom distribution, and intrauterine device (IUD) insertions.
• However, the abandonment of these targets post the Cairo conference on Population and Development in 1994 signified a shift away from coercive tactics.
• In the absence of coercive measures, policies aimed at incentivizing smaller families and penalizing larger ones have yielded mixed results.
• While punitive measures such as the denial of maternity leave for third and subsequent births, limitations on maternity benefits, and disqualification from local body elections for individuals with large families have been in place, their practical enforcement has been lacking. 

4. The Rise of Aspirational Parenthood

• In dissecting the shift away from large family ideals in India, it becomes evident that the socioeconomic landscape, particularly since the 1990s, has been a pivotal force.
• With agriculture's diminishing role in the economy and a marked increase in school and college enrollment, coupled with lucrative opportunities in government, multinational corporations, and software services, individuals have witnessed unprecedented financial prospects.
• Consequently, this transformation has prompted a reevaluation of family-building strategies among parents.
• Traditionally, the agrarian mindset equated more children with additional labor for farming tasks. However, the emergence of aspirational parenting has redefined this narrative.
• Rather than viewing children solely as labor assets, modern parents see their offspring as potential beneficiaries of education and upward mobility.
• Enrollment in coaching classes, once perceived as a pathway to academic success, now embodies the aspirations of parents keen on securing a prosperous future for their children.
• Contrary to the Western narrative of declining fertility linked to a retreat from familial commitments, Indian parents showcase heightened dedication to family values by opting for smaller family sizes.
• Research conducted in collaboration with demographer Alaka Basu at Cornell University underscores this phenomenon.
• Comparing families of similar income levels, our findings reveal that both small and large families exhibit comparable leisure activities, women's workforce participation, and material possessions.
• However, smaller families distinguish themselves by channeling greater financial resources into their children's education, epitomizing a shift towards child-centric aspirations rather than self-centric motives driving fertility decline.

5. Addressing India's Fertility Shift

• Paradoxically, despite the evident decline in fertility rates across Indian society, public discourse remains entrenched in the rhetoric of the 1970s, often fixating on perceived high fertility rates, particularly in regions like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, or among specific demographics such as women with limited education or the Muslim community. This outdated narrative occasionally prompts policymakers to advocate for measures aimed at coercing these purportedly uninformed or indifferent parents into reducing family sizes.
• Demographic indicators, however, signal the onset of an aspirational revolution. To expedite the decline in fertility rates, it is imperative to align policy discourse with this evolving reality.
• Rather than enforcing antiquated measures, the focus should shift towards bolstering the healthcare and family welfare infrastructure. This entails providing comprehensive contraception and sexual and reproductive health services, empowering individuals to make informed choices regarding the size of their families.