COUNTEROFFENSIVE UKRAINE

1. Background

• President Volodymyr ZelenskyY on Monday said that Ukrainian forces have retaken 6,000 sq km of Russian-held territory since the beginning of September. The claim came amid Russia conceding a pullback from key cities in the Kharkiv region.
• The current counter-offensive by Ukraine is unfolding in two areas — the Kharkiv region in the east, and the southern Kherson region.
• In the Kharkiv region, Russian troops have retreated from Balakliya, Izium and Kupiansk. Both Izium and Kupiansk were key logistics centres being used by the Russian forces.
• Ukrainian troops entered Kupiansk — a key rail hub — on Saturday, and within hours captured Izium, which is considered the gateway to the Donbas region, a Russian-speaking area whose complete capture has been Russia’s key war aim since the beginning of the conflict.
• After capturing Izium in April, Russia was using it as a launchpad for carrying out attacks in the Donbas region. It was, in fact, Moscow’s main bastion — an operation and command centre — next to a major frontline in the war. Kupiansk was the key railway station supplying Izium formations.

2. Present Contextual summary

• Ukraine says it has retaken more than 6,000 sq km (2,317 sq miles) from Russian control in September
• In the Kharkiv region, the towns of Izyum and Kupiansk, both key hubs for the supply of Russian forces in Donbas, were taken by Ukraine on Saturday
• A Ukrainian counterattack in Kherson in the south continues
• Russia still holds about a fifth of the country, but the Russian retreat is being seen by many analysts as a very significant Ukrainian success

3. Other international players

• While the gains have taken the world by surprise, the war room planning for the counter-offensive began in the summer. 
• According to The New York Times, the initial plan to recapture Kherson was revised, and replaced with a new one to retake territory before the first snow. Backed by intelligence inputs from the US and the UK, it was decided to mount two offensives instead of a single, large counter-attack.
• The report said that a detailed list of weapons — including the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and satellite-guided GMLRS rockets — was sent to the US to ensure the plan’s success.

4. Stand of Russia

• The recent gains are the biggest battlefield successes for Ukraine since blocking the Russian assault to seize Kyiv.
• While Russia has claimed that it has pulled back its forces to re-group and concentrate on Donetsk, the claim is similar to the reasoning that Moscow gave after failing to take control of the Ukrainian capital.
• So while this is a loss of face for President Vladimir Putin, it is a demonstration by Ukraine that it is not only capable of holding out against Russian advances, but is also capable of defeating enemy troops in battle.
• About it being a major military setback, a defence expert opined that it is “the first time since World War Two that whole Russian units have been lost”.