The global warming fight has a challenge for India
Source: The Hindu
For Prelims
What:
The editorial discusses the challenges India faces in addressing global warming, particularly in light of international climate negotiations such as COP29, and highlights India’s climate goals and energy transition challenges.
Why:
India’s need for an energy transition is critical due to its developmental aspirations and climate obligations, but this transition needs more time and cost due to its growing electricity demands and energy constraints.
Who:
The article discusses the roles of developed countries, China, and India in climate change agreements, and the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which targets emissions in international trade.
Outcome:
The editorial emphasizes the urgency of balancing India’s economic development with the need to reduce emissions and transition to renewable energy sources, proposing a role for both nuclear and renewable energy to meet climate goals
For Mains
GS III: Environment and Ecology
- Analyze the implications of the global energy transition and the peaking of emissions for India’s future energy strategy.
- India’s energy consumption and the need to ramp up electricity generation in the context of climate goals.
- The cost and land use implications of different energy transitions: renewable vs nuclear energy.
- Examine the impact of the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on India’s economy and climate policies.
- How India’s energy policies could be affected by EU tariffs on carbon-intensive exports.
- Potential adjustments required by India’s industries to meet international climate standards.
GS II: Governance, Constitution, and Policy
3. Evaluate the international climate negotiations and their implications for India's position in global climate agreements.
- India’s commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2070 and the pressure to cap emissions sooner.
- The political dynamics of climate negotiations and the role of international finance in supporting climate transition
Highlights of the Editorial
Energy Transition Costs and Land Use
Global Finance and Technology
CoP29
Context:
The outcome of the climate conference (COP29) in Azerbaijan has been disappointing. The meeting took place at a time of transition in American politics. While international climate negotiations remain stalemated, nature is moving inexorably towards becoming a hotter planet. The fight against global warming requires reducing emissions. Developed countries have accepted 2050, China 2060, and India 2070 as the deadline for energy transition to net zero emissions by 2070.
UPSC EXAM NOTES ANALYSIS
1. Outcomes of CoP29
- The results of the COP29 climate conference in Azerbaijan have been unsatisfactory. The event occurred during a transitional phase in U.S. politics, and while international climate talks continue to stall, global temperatures keep rising.
- The battle against climate change necessitates reducing emissions. Developed nations have set 2050 as the target year for achieving net-zero emissions, while China has committed to 2060, and India has set a target for 2070.
- However, two significant developments may shorten the timeline for this transition. The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), set to take effect in 2026, will impose penal duties on imports unless exporting countries raise their carbon taxes to match EU levels.
- Additionally, there is growing pressure for countries to adopt a ‘peaking’ of emissions. At the G-7 Summit in Hiroshima and again in Apulia in June 2024, major economies were urged to set a 2025 target for peaking emissions, a goal already accepted by the EU and the U.S., and now being pressed on China and India.
- There is also the potential for the incoming Trump administration to withdraw the U.S. from climate agreements once again. Regardless, we must take action to achieve environmental sustainability for our own benefit.
- At the same time, India’s development goals cannot be overlooked. India needs more electricity to replace fossil fuels, as its consumption is only one-third of the global average. While developed nations and China work to diversify toward cleaner energy, India must focus on both growth and diversification.
- These dual challenges come with much higher costs and demand a longer transition period. However, the option of waiting until 2070 is no longer feasible, as pressure grows for emissions to peak sooner.
- Peaking emissions refers to a phase where they level off before declining to net-zero levels. China has committed to peaking by 2030, and India cannot remain an exception for much longer.
- We likely have a decade at most before our emissions are capped. This accelerated timeline means relying on existing technologies, as innovations like small modular reactors and hydrogen will take over a decade to become commercially viable
2. Generation Ramp Up
- Although targets in climate negotiations may be voluntary, they will be enforced through bilateral tariffs and conditions tied to international financing. The level at which emissions peak will dictate the amount of energy available for future development.
- To ensure that we have enough energy to support future growth before being forced to accept emission peaking, we must rapidly increase electricity generation.
- China has already sanctioned or is building 200 GW of new coal-based power plants.
- Achieving net-zero emissions (NZE) will require significant growth in electricity demand from clean energy sources as sectors like transportation and industry move toward electrification. This increase will surpass the current trends that are primarily driven by the power sector alone.
- A task force from the Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF) on India's energy transition, working with IIT Bombay, used mathematical modeling to answer these questions.
- The task force projected that India’s minimum electricity demand by 2070 would be 21,000 Terawatt hours (TWh). The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates India’s energy demand to be 3,400 TWh by 2040.
- Comparing these timelines is challenging, but it is worth noting that India’s energy consumption in 2020, according to NITI Aayog, was 6,200 TWh.
3. Land and Cost
- For the energy transition, the choice is between renewables and nuclear, both of which are emission-free energy sources.
- The current tariffs for renewable energy do not fully account for storage and transmission costs.
- A study by the Central Electricity Authority last year revealed that the cost of round-the-clock renewables, assuming only six hours of storage, ranges from ₹4.95 per unit to ₹7.5 per unit.
- This is higher than the tariff for nuclear power, which is ₹3.80 per unit. The VIF-IIT Bombay study also indicated that the high renewable option would be the most expensive, costing $15.5 trillion by 2070, while the high nuclear option would be the least costly, at $11.2 trillion.
- The VIF report also highlighted that the high renewable approach would require 412,033 square kilometers of land—double the total surplus land of 200,000 square kilometers available in India.
- In comparison, the high nuclear approach would need only 183,565 square kilometers. Additionally, the renewable route for producing green hydrogen would significantly increase electricity demand for electrolysis, exacerbating land constraints.
- At COP28 in the United Arab Emirates, a group of over 20 countries, including the U.S., France, and Japan, committed to tripling nuclear power capacity by 2050.
- Nuclear power already accounts for 20% of electricity generation in the U.S. and 70% in France.
- Japan, despite its historical challenges with nuclear energy from the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings and the Fukushima accident, has also joined this initiative. In India, however, the share of nuclear power in electricity generation is only 3%, necessitating a much steeper increase.
- Increasing nuclear power in India will require government backing, as resources on such a scale cannot be generated internally by the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL).
- Nuclear power must also be recognized as green energy since it is emission-free. In addition to operationalizing existing joint ventures between NPCIL and public sector units, public-private partnerships with industries in hard-to-abate sectors should be encouraged, especially given the impending EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) deadline.
- The majority of additional generation demand will need to be met by larger reactors, ranging from 700 MW to 1,000 MW
4. Finance issue
- At COP29, developed nations pledged a modest $300 billion per year from various sources by 2035, far short of the $1.3 trillion requested by developing countries.
- The question remains whether this target will withstand the potential return of the Trump administration.
- Most of this funding will be non-concessional, and many developing countries are not in a position to absorb loans. Multilateral development banks may need to amend their statutes to accommodate this shift.
- Private green finance will only flow if tariffs are increased and the financial health of DISCOMs is restored. The government cannot shoulder the full fiscal burden of the energy transition, and the public must be prepared for significant tariff hikes to support investments in new-generation infrastructure. Achieving this will require political consensus.
- COP29 also finalized carbon trading rules, which involve wealthier countries purchasing carbon allowances from poorer nations to mitigate their own lifestyle changes. If India cannot transition to clean energy by the peaking year, it will need carbon for its growth rather than engaging in trade.
- The energy transition is essentially a battle for limited carbon space. No major economy is likely to fully diversify to clean energy before the global carbon budget depletes in the next decade.
- Securing an equitable share of this remaining carbon space is critical for future growth. To make our case, we must build significant generation capacity. Both the EU and the U.S. have already claimed their portion of this space by setting peaking levels, while China will continue to expand its claim until 2030
5. Conclusion
The energy transition is a complex and urgent challenge that requires balancing global environmental goals with the developmental needs of countries like India. While the commitments made at COP29 and other international forums represent significant progress, they fall short of addressing the true scale of the issue, particularly for developing nations. The financial commitments, though substantial, are insufficient and often come with conditions that may be difficult for many countries to meet. The path forward demands not only technological and financial solutions but also political will and international cooperation.
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Mains Practice Questions
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